English
Reporter: What are the opportunities shaping up for Romania, in the current international context?
Adrian Cioroianu: It sounds cynical to be talking about opportunities in these situations of crisis, but on the other hand, a pragmatic approach always leads to the conclusion that in any crisis there are the seeds of opportunity. A beneficial aspect of the recent events is that NATO and our Western partners are more aware of the importance of the "Eastern flank", which Romania is also a part of.
In the NATO summit, which is taking place right now (ed. note: the interview was recorded on September 5th, when the works of the NATO summit in Cardiff took place), a number of decisions will be made which will increase the "weight" of Romania and of other countries in the area, such as Poland and the Baltic states.
It remains to be seen to what degree this opportunity will be exploited. These decisions will not bring us a "gift", but rather, more responsibilities. For now, there is a chance that our presence at the Black Sea will lead to the development of Romania's naval capabilities, which is a segment where we have regressed dramatically after 1990. I am not referring only to military capabilities, but also to civilian naval capabilities, a segment where we have clearly been absent in the last 25 years, and they usually go hand in hand. We have very good sea specialists - from officers to workforce -, but they work under foreign flags. After the revolution, it took us ten years to annihilate Romania's naval capabilities; we are going to probably need 10-15 years more to get them back.
Reporter: How do you think the conflict in Ukraine will evolve?
Adrian Cioroianu: Russia has a strategic target here, preventing Ukraine from joining the organizations of the Western world, the EU and NATO. Vladimir Putin would have preferred it for Ukraine to be part of the Eurasian Customs Union (together with Belarus, Kazakhstan and others), but Ukraine and Moldova "turned their back" - geopolitically speaking - on this union and they have taken up a pro-European rhetoric, which in my opinion was healthy. The tensions in Ukraine will not escalate into a war between countries, but there is the possibility of this conflict being "frozen", and for the situation not be definitively resolved - we have a few precedents in that regard, including Transnistria. Sure, there can always be further, unforeseen elements - those "black swans" of history, that Nicholas Taleb was speaking about -, but in the current context, Russia isn't interested in the conflict expanding either, because if that happened the very seat of Vladimir Putin would be shaken overnight.
Reporter: Le Monde Diplomatique is talking about a new Cold War, and the international players have remained the same, the US and Russia. How would you comment on this statement?
Adrian Cioroianu: Sure, it can be said that we have entered a reality that is comparable to the one of the Cold War, even though we should redefine our terms. The Cold War was the "cold" mirror image of World War Two, which was "hot". Unlike the decades that followed the second World War, today, Russia can't export an ideology anymore - because for now it doesn't have it. But on the other hand, I am afraid it is not an exaggeration to make a reference to the period of the Cold War, because Russia has the same behavior of suspicion and opposition to the Western World. This "neo-war", which for now is propagandistic, can quickly turn "cold" again.
• Romania, in the context of the conflict in Ukraine - "It is preferable for the president, the prime-minister and the minister of foreign affairs to have the same message - which didn't happen"
Reporter: What are your comments on the political statements made by president Traian Băsescu, and by prime-minister Victor Ponta on the situation in Ukraine? How could these statements influence the Romanian economy?
Adrian Cioroianu: As paradoxical as it may sound, those statements were welcome. A position from Romania, in the context of the situation in Ukraine, was necessary. Unfortunately, it is clear that the issue, has become, in turn, ammunition for the domestic policy.
Because in Romania this year we are going to have elections, everyone thought of the benefits that they can derive domestically from these statements. As to what concerns both of them, the foreign credibility that they have enjoyed in the context was low - because our foreign partners know very well that these statements were made in the context of an electoral campaign. It would be preferable if the president, the prime-minister and the minister of foreign affairs spoke the same language - which hasn't happened. And some things received emphasis when they shouldn't have.
The president's outburst asking for Ukraine to take up arms, I honestly don't know if it was the kind of statement that a president should make. In the field of big politics, bell the cat and it will catch no mice.
I wouldn't blame the statements of the two for the effects that will be felt by the Romanian economy, in the context of the conflict in Ukraine. They say money is the most cowardly creature. Money runs away from unstable areas, and from that point of view it is clear that what is happening in Ukraine is affecting us as well as our neighbors.
Reporter: Do you think that Russia will impose sanctions on Romania?
Adrian Cioroianu: I think we can already speak about that in the present tense. Starting in August 2014, Russia has imposed some sanctions against the EU member countries. Those sanctions will be directed at us either as EU members, either as neighbors, but they will affect us to a lesser extent because unfortunately, our trade relations with Russia are not well developed. Neither Russia nor Romania excel when it comes to finished products, and therefore - also unfortunately - it is highly unlikely that the trade relations between Romania and Russia would boom spectacularly, once the conflict in Ukraine ends.
Reporter: What are the bilateral relations that the Romanian state would have to reinforce to stimulate the turnaround of the Romanian economy?
Adrian Cioroianu: Poland and Turkey are two countries that are very important for us as a country and for NATO as an alliance, here in Eastern Europe and in the Black Sea region - which is why no Romanian long term partnership should avoid these two countries. In the predictable future, Romania and Poland will have to be partners and solidary with one another. As for the economic part, we have not yet completed our integration in the economy of the European Union and I think that this should Romania's main priority. First of all, we will have to agree on the niche that we want to be competitive in. We can no longer harbor the illusion that we did 40-50 years ago, during the communist regime. You can't be good at everything - pencils, potatoes and lasers. In the EU there is a quasi-economic specialization of every country - or, we have always run away from this kind of specializations, we've never liked them. It was a clearly discernable reality even during the time of the communist Council for Mutual Economic Assistance (Comecon). Unfortunately, at the time, Romania's development niche was the agricultural sector as well; we have refused to develop it and we went for developing industry instead. The results were a cause for hope for a while, and then it all collapsed. After the joining of the EU we have resumed the process and we are still trying to find out what we can excel at. These are not decisions that can be made at night, on TV, on a talkshow. It is clear that you can only assert yourself on this European market through excellent products, but first of all, we have to agree on what we want to develop. Perhaps we should specialize in IT, in software products, there is a market for that too, but I am not seeing any signs. We are still going in every direction, hesitantly, in the hope that something that we do will catch on abroad.
• "France's diplomatic clout has decreased in the last ten years, and Germany tends to not only become the EU's economic engine, but its political and diplomatic engine as well"
Reporter: What are the vulnerabilities of the European construction?
Adrian Cioroianu: First of all, we need to admit that one of the vulnerabilities is the large number of members, from the Europe of the 12 we have now come to the Europe of the 27. There is a very simple logic which says that every chain is only as strong as its weakest link. The EU can't be stronger than its weakest links. Another worrisome aspect is the increasing gap between France and Germany, as well as this parallel course of Great Britain, a state which is and isn't in the EU. Then the Euro currency has its own problems - which will continue, unless we create a kind of Ministry of Finance of the EU that will have decision-making power in every country where the Euro is used.
Reporter: Could it be said that we are currently witnessing a reconsideration of the power balance in the European space?
Adrian Cioroianu: Amid some domestic eccentricities, France's diplomatic clout has decreased in the last ten years, and Germany tends to not only become the EU's economic engine, but its political and diplomatic engine as well. In my view, Europe is no longer divided into the East and West, rather, the new division is between Northern Europe and Southern Europe. Northern Europe that is more effective from an economic point of view, more stable from a political point of view, and Southern Europe that has economic, political and social deficiencies. From an economic and social point of view, Southern Europe - this area that starts in Southern Spain, Italy -, an area which includes us as well, is becoming the weak link of the EU. Right now, in Italy or in Greece, their politicians are doing an even worse job, domestically, than ours.
Reporter: Aside from the crisis in Ukraine, what are the other crises that Europe is being faced with? What is left for Romania to do in the context of these crises?
Adrian Cioroianu: The major crisis that Europe will face in the coming years is the demographic one, from my point of view. It is clear that Europe is aging. Romania is in line with Europe, in that regard, we have about 1.4 children/fertile woman, and for the population to increase we need to get to about 2.4 children per fertile woman. Realistically speaking, I don't see any solution for a rapid turnaround - which is why we are going to need immigrants from outside Europe. Russia is facing the same problem. The only European country that is avoiding this trend is for now, is France - its demographic stability is also the results of immigrants coming in. You should know that there are no vacuums in history - if a population in a certain area has few children, another population with a higher birth rate will come in. So, if we are not going to have children, we shouldn't be surprised at the fact that Europe, and implicitly, Romania, will become more attractive to young people in Libya, Bangladesh, India, Morocco etc. We need young people to come from the outside; amid an aging population, we need someone to work as well. But these young people will bring their own extra-European culture. The demographic problem directly influences emigration policies.
Reporter: Could we say that people that are more economically productive have fewer children?
Adrian Cioroianu: Yes, that statement is accurate! But such a reality is a major challenge in the long term.
Reporter: Is there a concern from the governments for this demographic problem?
Adrian Cioroianu: I am afraid not. There is no miracle recipe for increasing the birth rate. President Putin tried, in Russia, with modest results, the Catholic Church is opposing abortions, but it is unable to reverse the trend, in Romania the Orthodox church is making statements in that regard, but let's be honest, not everybody is going to listen to what the Patriarch or the Pope are saying, in today's world. Modern society today seems to have this corollary, the lack of concern for the future generations. People living today are perhaps the most selfish generation in the history of Europe.
Reporter: You talked about the risk of the disintegration of the EU. What are the odds of that happening?
Adrian Cioroianu: I tend to believe that the chances of the EU disintegrating, of ending as a political experiment, are less than 10%. But they do indeed exist. The European elections of 2014 have shown that this Eurosceptic, nationalistic and isolationist current is gaining traction, but let's hope it will never get the majority. It is something I wish would never materialize. I would like for the EU to endure, because it represents the best achievement of the continent in the 20th century and I would like to see it made stronger in the 21st century. Romania's medium and long term development is, in my opinion, strictly connected to the existence of the EU. To be even more direct, I would say that America must remain (as a military and economic presence) in Europe and to an equal degree the EU must endure - these two conditions support our national interest.
• "I think that the US will remain a major player for a long time from now on"
Reporter: Are we witnessing a new world order? What part could countries such as China, India, Russia play from now on?
Adrian Cioroianu: Over the last 25 years, we have basically lived in a unipolar world, but that doesn't mean that this state of things can continue. It is clear that there are other states that will rise - China, probably India, Brazil or Indonesia and so on. Even though up until now, China grew at a far greater pace than India, the latter is heavily making up any lost ground, including from a demographic point of view. If the demographic trend in China remains the way it is now, India will surpass it in terms of the population for the next 20-30 years. But this rise of other countries does not necessarily mean the inherent decline of the US. Personally, I think that the US will remain a major global player for a long time. Sure, on a macro level, there are significant developments, and I am tempted to consider demographics as one of the main factors behind this evolution. In America for instance, the white protestants will apparently become a minority, starting in this very century: demographically, the segment with the highest growth is that of the Latino population, those from Latin America, and the religion that is on the rise in the US is Catholicism. It is to be expected that in this century, in the next 20-30 years, the number of Asians, blacks, as well as Latino citizens will surpass that of white protestants in the US. It is not a phenomenon that should scare us. History has always meant change. In the long term, countries with the highest birth rate win, it is a very simple rule of history, like I was saying, territories never stay empty. We shouldn't be surprised if Europe will no longer have the linguistic and religious characteristics that we know today. I know it may seem strange, but given the current birth rate in Romania, it wouldn't be out of the question to see mosques, or, why not, Buddhist temples on the Ştefan cel Mare boulevard in Bucharest, 50 years from now. And that applies to the majority of the Europeans, from Sweden to Hungary, Italy or Germany. Humanity's history has seen plenty of such changes, in the long term.
• "We are exporting a set of problems that are eroding our foreign image"
Reporter: What is your take on the gesture of the opposition to talk to Jean-Claude Juncker, the president of the European Commission, through which they expressed their discontent with the way Romania's internal politics is shaping up?
Adrian Cioroianu: Romania's credibility won't be improved by "exporting problems". This trading of jabs and then running off by both parties to tell on each other to the European "referee" aren't going to bring Romania any benefit. Rather, we are exporting a set of problems that are eroding our foreign image.
Reporter: Do you think that there are abnormalities in the Romanian internal politics?
Adrian Cioroianu: I think that the major issue of the Romanian politics is the large number of people that have notoriety, but lack credibility. Many of the political players think that it's all about notoriety. From Elena Udrea to Victor Ponta, our politicians are doing rather well when it comes to notoriety, but what should concern them is their credibility; and from that point of view, the signal that the population is sending is rather clear. Confidence in the political class is dropping, even though their notoriety is rising. This isn't happening just in Romania, there is a crisis of the political sector all over Europe.
Another abnormality in politics is the focus on people. We keep thinking in terms of people, instead of political orientations or political families. Truth be told, I can't even tell if they exist. The merger between the PNL and the PDL, between a liberal party and a party affiliated with the European People's Party, as well as the ease with which this merger was completed, are incredible. What political color does the party led by Mr. Iohannis have now? Can you call yourself the National Liberal Party while at the same time having a popular-conservative doctrine? Even though not everyone is concerned with doctrines and political families, Romanians can still tell that what is happening is wrong.
Many politicians think that Romanians are easy to manipulate. They are mistaken, even the citizens that aren't involved (ed. note: in the "affairs of the country") have political flair. Romanians are not a people that is easy to manipulate. Romanians are a people that is very difficult to lead and the Romanian political parties can't seem to get used to the idea. Romanians are still being treated as immature, who will "bite" at any promise. Whereas reality shows us that we are less and less so. The future governments that promise without doing anything will have increasingly big problems.
Another deviation that is worth mentioning is the fact that today, there is no political party that encourages meritocracy. The personnel policies of Romanian political parties are rather bizarre. As a result, many people who have something to do prefer to stay away from politics and the political parties aren't exactly courting them either. I don't want to act all righteous, because I have gone through politics myself. But it is precisely because of this that I have never seen a political party with an effective personnel policy. They all think (wrongly!) that personnel policies are something that belongs in communism. Far from it! Every serious civic entity, organization or institution must have a membership policy. Planning and membership policy are not something that is related to communism, they should exist today as well. For example, what is Romania's long term plan? Did we ever raise that issue? While I was in charge of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs I commissioned to some experts a prospective plan for ten years about what Romania wants (in diplomacy) and what it can do - a prospective plan which was then submitted to the prime-minister and the president. It is an action which I am very proud of and I think that such an initiative would have to become something permanent on a national level and not be confined to one single political party. We should have a medium and long term vision for our country, not only for the short-term projects of the political parties.
Reporter: How could we explain the fact that even today, almost 24 years later, PSD is enjoying an electorate that remains loyal to it because of Ion Iliescu?
Adrian Cioroianu: Even though Ion Iliescu is still considered a black sheep by many and he is still being subjected to all kinds of insults, I think he is a character that excels on both of the counts that I was talking about previously: he has a notoriety on a national level and he has credibility among the politicians of the left. Among the latter, Ion Iliescu has higher credibility than Klaus Iohannis among the right. Hence his influence.
Reporter: What do you think about the candidates in the presidential elections?
Adrian Cioroianu: I find this fragmentation of the right extremely ridiculous. In the current political environment, the right is playing right into the hands of the left. I think that what is happening benefits Mr. Ponta. I am still keeping my attention focused on the former prime-minister, whom I've seen at work, Călin Popescu Tăriceanu. On one hand, I regret the fact that he left the PNL, but on the other hand - as I myself have left the PNL because of Crin Antonescu - I suspect he had his reasons. I am curious to see what will happen with the party that he has created.
Reporter: In Romanian politics, is Victor Ponta a young wolf or a "kitten", like president Traian Băsescu described him?
Adrian Cioroianu: Victor Ponta isn't that young anymore, nor is he a wolf. We can't call him a "kitten" either, because his claws have gotten stronger. But as for the Ponta - PSD pair, I think that the PSD is the essential factor. With the current chaos of the right, it's more like the PSD is leading Victor Ponta than the opposite. PSD is an extended and disciplined party, it is moving very well within the political territory that it controls politically and that gives Victor Ponta strength as well.
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