Ponta forces Isărescu's hand

The new Board of Directors of the National Bank of Romania will receive the Parliament's vote this month, even though the current terms of its members expire at the end of September, prime-minister Victor Ponta said.

He added that governor Mugur Isărescu will be supported by the USD for a new term at the NBR, and that even though vice-president Bogdan Olteanu "did very well in his job", "the NBR isn't his playground" and he couldn't tell whether Olteanu could win a new term.

Political sources told us, however, that Bogdan Olteanu and Cristian Popa have lost their political support for the future elections at the NBR.

Analysts claim that Victor Ponta's rush to elect the new Board of Directors of the NBR earlier is actually a gesture intended to make it clear whether Mugur Isărescu would run for the presidential elections to be held this autumn or not: "The moves for the elections are taking place this autumn. If Mugur Isărescu wins a new term with the NBR, he obviously would not run for president".

Economic analyst Florin Cîţu considers, however, that the rush of the current government to elect the new Board of the NBR, the new members of the Court of Accounts, the Board of Directors of the Public Radio Broadcasting Company and the president of the Romanian state television (TVR) prove that the PSD isn't confident that it will still have the necessary majority for these positions in autumn and it will therefore hold the votes this month to make sure that the "right people" are elected at the NBR.

Florin Cîţu writes the following on his blog: "This clearly proves that the NBR is not an independent institution and that politicians appoints its leaders, and implicitly, decide its monetary policy. The results of the monetary policy over the last 24 years already suggested the fact that the NBR was not independent, but now there is yet another proof of that (if what Victor Ponta says is true). We will see who will be the leader of the NBR, but I don't think that there will be anybody to have ever published an independent analysis (rather than at someone's order), even on a blog about the monetary policy or about the role of the monetary policy in the economy. Unfortunately, if this statement by Victor Ponta is real, we have to expect a monetary policy that would support the fiscal policy rather than offset it (as it should). This type of monetary policy has been encountered in 2006-2007, when the NBR loosened the monetary policy at the same time as the fiscal policy was being loosened itself, pumping up the boom period, and, of course, the subsequent crash period".

US vice-president Joe Biden recently met NBR governor Mugur Isărescu, according to some political sources, which said that the meeting was requested by the American official himself. Sources are saying that Western governments favor Mugur Isărescu as the successor to Traian Băsescu. The governor of the NBR may receive the support of the right and left moderate parties in Romania and in the EU. Mugur Isărescu is well known as an appeaser and as the central bank governor to have lasted the longest of all his European peers.

Having served as the governor of the NBR for almost 25 years, Mugur Isărescu is the personality that Romanians trust the most, according to polls published over the years.