A CERTAINTY ABOUT THE ECONOMIC DEADLOCK: Exports no solution for Romania"s crisis

Romania will not exit the crisis in 2010, and it shouldn"t rely on exports for the recovery, according to statements by businesspeople who attended a seminar held by the Romanian National Association of Exporters and Importers (ANEIR).

Mihai Ionescu, the secretary general of ANEIR, said that in spite of positive signals from the authorities, "it will be a long time before Romania exits the crisis", even if other European economies successfully recover, and the foreign markets begin to thaw.

"We may see a stabilization in exports in the second quarter of 2010 followed by a rise, if countries in the Western Europe recover", Mihai Ionescu added.

The situation is rather dire: in the first decade of November, exports decreased by about 20% YOY, and for the end of the year, ANEIR estimates a deficit of around 20%. However, imports will be 35% lower than last year"s similar period, and the trade deficit may shrink by about 60% over 2008.

In the first quarter of 2009, over 7,000 exporters disappeared from the domestic market (almost a third of the total number of 21,800 companies), the losses being estimated at billions of Euros.

Exporters say that besides the contraction of the foreign markets, they are also facing several domestic issues, such as VAT reimbursements, overdue invoices and tight lending, and the political crisis.

Mihai Ionescu said that there are issues caused by the unpaid invoices for public works delivered in 2008, and that there is the risk of a credit freeze, due to the intense borrowing by the Ministry of Public Finance on the domestic market.

In reply, the vice-president of ANAF, Mihai Gogancea Vătăşoiu, admitted that VAT reimbursements are very slow, but he did say that the Tax Administration this year solved VAT reimbursement demands that were overdue by 1289 days.

Concerning the exchange rate, the secretary general of the ANEIR, however said that the Central Bank did help exporters: "We had a tacit agreement with the National Bank in order to maintain the exchange rate within the 4.1-4.3 lei/Euro, in order to stimulate exports, without affecting the population".

One of the sectors where the drop in exports was the most felt is that of the textile industry. According to the FEPAIUS professional union (The Federation of the leather, textile and light industry) the weight of this sector in Romania"s exports decreased from 32% to 16%, and this caused the loss of approximately 55,000 jobs.

What"s more, Maria Grappini, chairman of FEPAIUS, who attended the seminar, said that due to the fact that the 2010 budget has not yet been adopted, and due to the uncertainty about the fiscal regulations for 2010, companies can"t enter export agreements.

Besides, given the contraction on the Western markets, business people are now turning their attention to Eastern markets and Africa. Three new export centers will be opened in the Romanian embassies of Moscow, Beijing and Cairo.

Last but not least, Andreea Vass, economic advisor to the Prime-Minister, considers that Romania"s recovery should not rely on exports, because the international situation is not favorable in this regard, and that the country should turn inward for the recovery.

"I personally think that Romania will exit the economic crisis in about two years, but Romania"s recovery should not be based on exports", Vass said. In this respect, Vass presented a report by international financial institutions, which said that the global economy would shrink by 1.4%-1.8%, and world trade would contract by 12.9%.