Adrian Vasilescu, NBR: "2011 will definitely be just as hard as 2010"

Adrian Vasilescu, the advisor to the governor of the NBR, considers that the next year will be just as difficult as 2010. In his opinion, the official forecast, which predicts the economy will grow by 1.5%, can be reached if we do not stumble. "The economy has already started its engines and this is visible first of all in the industrial output, which is on the rise, and in the recovery of exports", he explained, adding that this is demonstrated by statistical data. Beyond those figures, it is obvious that exports are on the rise, that factories are working, people are seeing more work: "In Bucharest and in other countries, there are companies that are doing well. This means the locomotive of growth has left the station", said Adrian Vasilescu. He said that the forecast made by the IMF together with its partners in the loan agreement and with the Romanian authorities is feasible, as long as all the goals that would generate healthy economic growth of 1.5% in 2011 are reached. "This does not necessarily mean that it will happen, because Romania could make a mistake, we tend to do that. But if we don"t make any, and if all of the goals are met, then that 1.5% growth will become a reality", Mr. Vasilescu said.

On the other hand, even though the economy is facing issues, the exchange rate remains steady. "The exchange can remain stable even in a damaged economy. Basically, the current account helps mitigate the recession. All of the elements of the exchange rate mirror the current account, in the country"s balance of payments. Exports adjust first, and they increase, then, imports decrease. The exports to imports ratio has improved. These are a few of the reasons why a troubled economy has a stable rate of exchange". Furthermore, he said that confidence in the economy is the most important factor that could stimulate the relaunch of lending.

• How the NBR sees the public"s attitude towards banks

Adrian Vasilescu said that the NBR is not involved in this equation, but it is concerned by the matter of the direct relationship between customers and retail banks. He said that "the NBR is not involved in this equation, the unknown factors in this equation are others. According to the rules of the European Union, the key factor in this matter is the National Authority for Consumer Protection. The NBR is concerned with two things, the matter of the direct relationship between customers and banks, because this issue is a part of a country"s financial stability criteria, and also with the fact that we could create a social problem that could cause banks to become unstable". He said that in Romania, the banking system is doing fine, unlike in other countries which were forced to subsidize them using public money, to prevent them from collapsing, and Romania was spared the need to spend money it didn"t have anyway on keeping banks alive". Adrian Vasilescu added: "Now that we"ve reached this performance, of having a solid banking system, which has no weak links, the NBR"s concern is that we could have a social problem that could cause banks to become unstable".