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Loans will not get cheaper, at least not until next year, as banks will focus on lending to the state, since they are not willing to take the risk on lending to companies and individuals, analysts say.
On the interbank market, interest rates still remain above the key policy rate, revolving around 10% a year, while lending conditions have become a lot harsher.
The increased need for liquidity led to a rise in interest rates, said Florian Libocor, president of AAFBR and Chief Economist of BRD.
Analysts estimate that a drop in the interest rate is unlikely to happen before 2010.
Mr. Libocor said: "I"m expecting interest rates to follow a downward trend in 2010, bu the amplitude and the rate of this change depend on factors that we don"t know for the moment". As for a moderate resumption in lending, this is can not be expected to happen before H2 2010, the chief economist of BRD says.
Rozalia Pal, economist at Unicredit Tiriac Bank, expects a drop in interest rates "once the policy rate is lowered". the monetary policy rate currently dropped to 8%, from 10.25%, whereas interbank rates dropped from 14% in the to 10%.
Mrs. Pal said: "I expect the key interest rate to reach 6.5% by the end of 2010. For the end of this year, the policy rate will remain at 8%, but interest rates on the interbank market remain above this level due to tensions caused by the depreciation of the leu ", said Mrs. Pal, who added that she expects lending to thaw next year.
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