By September, Managers Forecast Business Decline In Several Industries

Managers of Romanian companies estimate that raw materials processing, constructions, commerce and services will incur moderate slowdown between July and September and expect the number of employees to decrease in all industries, according to data released yesterday by the National Statistics Institute (INS).

Specifically, managers of raw materials processing companies estimate a moderate output decline in the next three months (contextual balance: -13%), according to a contextual survey published by the INS. The overall number of employees working in this industry is expected to decrease (contextual balance: -22%), particularly in the companies having at least 500 employees (contextual balance: -30%). Among the most affected industries are the iron & steel industry, the automotive industry and industrial equipment manufacturers. Regarding the price of industrial products, managers have concurred on a stable outlook for the next three months (contextual balance: +1%).

According to estimates made this month, the construction business could incur a moderate output decline in the following three months (contextual balance: -11%), corroborated with a moderate decline in order intake (contextual balance: -15%). Managers of Romanian companies also expect the overall number of employees to decrease both generally (contextual balance: -20%) and by company size. However, the price of construction works is expected to remain stable (contextual balance: +2%).

• Employers predict rise in unemployment

Managers of retail companies estimated a moderate business slowdown in the following three months (contextual balance: -8%), while the overall sales volume is likely to remain stable (contextual balance: -5) until September. Business-to-business sales are likely to decrease moderately (contextual balance: -8%). Employers believe that the number of employees in this industry will decrease in the next three months (contextual balance: -13%), while retail prices will only increase moderately (contextual balance: +11%).

Service providers estimate a moderate decline in turnover (contextual balance: -8%) amid smaller demand and a decrease in the number of employees (contextual balance: -15%) between July and September. The negative trend will particularly affect very large enterprises of at least 500 employees. Concurrently, the sale price of services will remain relatively stable (contextual balance: +1%).

The contextual balance is calculated as the delta between the percentage of respondents who gave a positive answer and those who gave a negative answer to a positive-or-negative question. Therefore the contextual balance indicates the respondents" perception of a given market trend and should not be mistaken for the intensity at which a statistical indicator increases or decreases. The survey was performed on representative samples from the raw materials processing industry (2,070 companies), the construction industry (1,258 companies), retail (2,678 companies) and services (2,081 companies).