China's total debt, at a record level

V.R. (translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
Ziarul BURSA #English Section / 26 aprilie 2016

China's total debt, at a record level

Over 25,000 billion dollars in the first quarter - 237% of the GDP

Analysts warn about risks

China's total debt has increased to a record level of 237% of the GDP in the first quarter of 2016, far exceeding the level reached by other emerging countries, which increases the risk of a financial crisis or of the extended slowdown of the country's economy, according to the warnings launched by analysts.

British publication Financial Times (FT) writes that Beijing has resorted to major loans to boost its economic growth, feeding the net debt, which reached 163,000 billion Yuan (25,000 billion dollars) at the end of March. The amount also includes internal borrowing, as well as the foreign ones.

FT notes that even though China's debt generates fears, more worrisome is the speed it has been accrued at. If it has now reached 237% of the GDP, at the end of 2007, China's debt was 148% of the GDP.

"Every major country that has rapid increases in debt has faced either a financial crisis, or an extended slowdown of the growth of the GDP", says Ha Jiming, chief investment strategist at "Goldman Sachs".

The IMF has recently warned that the Asian country is posing an increasingly higher risk to the developed economies, due to the size of its debt and the ties it has with the global financial marketing.

According to specialists, it is difficult for any economy to productively use such a volume of capital over the short term, due to the limited number of profitable projects.

As the investments' returns decrease, even more loans are at risk of becoming non-performing, according to FT.

Economists feel that China's health is at risk, but their opinions on the country's future vary.

One of the extreme scenarios is an acute crisis - a "Lehman" moment which will resemble the one in the US in 2008, when that bank collapsed, and other lenders crashed, paralyzing the market. Other economists estimate a chronic slump in China, as has been happening in Japan, where economic growth has been stagnant for years.

According to data from the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), the total debt of emerging markets was 175% of the GDP in the third quarter of 2015. The BIS estimates China's debt at 249% of the GDP, compared to 270% in the Eurozone and 248% - the US' debt.

Foreign investors are set to remove approximately 538 billion dollars from the Chinese economy in 2016, the International Institute for Finance estimated yesterday, according to Reuters.

According to the IIF, the pace of capital outflows from China has slowed down, as this year's amount will be approximately 20% lower than the 764 billion dollars investors took out last year, according to Agerpres. However, the IIF warns that that capital outflows may pick up speed again, if concerns over a disorderly depreciation of the Chinese Yuan were to appear.

"A sudden drop of the Yuan would spark off new sell-offs of risky assets and a flight of capital portfolios to the emerging markets", a recent report of the IIF states, which mentions: "Furthermore, a sudden depreciation of the Yuan could spark off a devaluation of other emerging markets, especially among those with strong commercial ties with China".

Approximately 35 billion dollars have exited China in March, which takes the total since the beginning of the year to approximately 175 billion dollars, far below the outflows that took place in the first half of 2015.

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