Climate change is imposing a new normal

Our country has faced a new wave of heat waves in recent days. This is the first red heat code (the tenth this summer) ever issued in August in Romania, the director of the National Meteorological Administration, Elena Mateescu, said. Entire regions buckled under the weight of the recorded 41 degrees Celsius. The situation is simply incendiary, and people are forced to change their lifestyle.

The government last week approved the Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change and thus will be able to obtain a loan of 470 million euros to finance various projects. Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu declared during the Government meeting:

"We are going through another period of prolonged heatwave and drought. We approve the Strategy for Adaptation to Climate Change. We thus have a fundamental framework to act in this field. The strategy is also the essential condition for obtaining a loan of almost 470 million euros from the World Bank. With this money we will finance projects to reduce Romania's vulnerabilities to climate risks that are becoming more and more acute".

In recent years, we have been dealing with a series of extreme climate phenomena, from record temperatures to intense heat waves and violent storms. One of the main factors contributing to these dramatic changes is the natural variability of the Earth's climate system, especially phenomena such as "El Niño". However, we cannot ignore the major influence that human activity has on the climate.

• El Niño and its Impact on Global Climate

El Niño is a natural phenomenon that occurs periodically and is characterized by an abnormal warming of the water in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. This warming brings with it an increase in energy and heat in the atmosphere, leading to a global increase in average temperatures. El Niño years are usually marked by record global temperatures. For example, research shows that a year with record temperatures is often a year in which the El Niño phenomenon is active.

• The combined effects of climate change

While El Niño contributes to rising temperatures, climate change caused by human activity exacerbates these effects. Increased emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane have led to steady global warming. The combination of El Niño and global warming makes periods of high temperatures more frequent and intense. Although El Niño is a natural phenomenon that disappears over time, climate change persists and continues to influence the global climate. Even after the transition from El Niño to the opposite phase, La Niña, which would normally bring a cooling of temperatures, we are still dealing with high temperatures and broken records.

• Temperature records and forecasts for the future

July 2024 was marked by a series of temperature records, continuing a trend of 13 consecutive months of above-average global temperatures. Medium-term research and estimates show that August and September will also be characterized by above-normal temperatures. While it is unclear whether these months will break previous temperature records, the likelihood that they will be surpassed is increasing amid global warming.

• Heat and storms: a new climate pattern

This summer's heat waves were often accompanied by violent storms. This climate pattern is not unusual, especially during the summer when high temperatures and humidity increase the risk of thunderstorms. Heat waves create the ideal conditions for atmospheric instability, one of the "ingredients" necessary for the formation of storms. With high humidity, storms become more frequent and more intense. These extreme phenomena seem to be becoming more frequent and more severe. We are not talking about an apocalyptic situation, but we have to adapt to the idea that this type of extreme weather will become the norm in the near future. The combined impact of natural variability and climate change forces us to reassess how we prepare for the future and take action to mitigate the effects of climate change.

• Expert: The duration of the seasons changes

The researcher Bogdan Antonescu, specialized in atmospheric physics, from the National Research and Development Institute for Earth Physics, spoke about these things in an interview granted to tvr.ro: "The fact that we have observed in recent years an increase in the number of days extremely of warm weather and a disappearance of seasons is somehow a consequence of climate change. The part of heat waves or extreme temperatures represents a combination of natural variability, on top of which is added the signal of climate change. Natural variability means that these phenomena also existed in the past and they are amplified in certain periods by natural causes related, for example, to the way the air flows in the atmosphere, so that, in certain situations, it can bring an air warm in a certain region. But what happens is that on top of this natural signal is added the signal of climate change. These extreme temperatures or heat waves are not a consequence of climate change, but climate change is altering the characteristics of periods of extreme temperatures and heat waves, which means that we now see more heat waves than in the past, more intense - so with much higher temperatures during a heat wave compared to previous periods and their lifespan is very long. Exactly what is happening now with this heat wave that Romania is going through these days. Now, once the global average temperature increases by 1.2 degrees, as we currently have, for example, one of the consequences is, as I said, a change in the characteristics of heat waves, but it is also a change in the temperature distribution for certain regions. Think that we have a distribution that we are used to in Romania, but over this natural distribution, which occurs normally in Romania's climate, we add an increase of 1.2 degrees Celsius. This only increases the occurrence of extreme phenomena and is not something we do not observe, and another consequence is related to the seasons. The fact that things seem to have changed in terms of the seasons: in reality, they haven't changed that much, things have changed, but we still have four seasons, the seasons don't disappear, they just change in length . If you want, this is most clearly seen in the summer period - that is, the days classified as summer days tend to be more in the year, which means that the warm season is extended. The days characteristic for the cold period are fewer and fewer and then there is this impression that we practically don't have a cold season anymore - that's because we don't see precipitation in the form of snow like before".

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• Ministry of the Environment: Romania's contribution to global emissions is insignificant

The Ministry of the Environment presents (mmediu.ro) an overview related to these changes: "Climate represents the prevailing meteorological conditions, calculated on average over several years, while weather is the short-term change that we see and experience daily . Normally, the average climatic conditions in all regions of the Earth change due to natural processes. Thus, in the last millions of years there have been regular oscillations between warm periods and ice ages. These oscillations last tens of thousands of years, triggered by periodic changes in the Earth's orbit around the Sun, changes in solar emissions or natural internal processes of the climate system. With the Industrial Revolution and until now, human activities have determined the significant increase in global atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases, mainly carbon dioxide (C2O), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFC -s), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), nitrogen trifluoride (NF3). These gases act like a window in a greenhouse: they absorb the energy and heat of the Sun that are radiated from the Earth's surface, capture them in the atmosphere and prevent them from escaping into space. Within normal limits, this greenhouse effect makes life on Earth possible, since, if it did not exist, average temperatures would register negative values that would not allow survival. Instead, the increase in the greenhouse effect causes changes in the climate of the entire planet. The main sources of greenhouse gases produced by humans are: the burning of fossil fuels for the production of electricity, transport, industry and heating and cooling of households; carrying out certain agricultural practices that are associated with methane emissions (CH4) - resulting from animal digestion, manure management and rice cultivation, respectively nitrous oxide emissions (N2O) - originating from agricultural soils treated with nitrogen fertilizers of organic and mineral origin and from manure management; the reduction of forested lands as a result of the change of their destination, the burning of savannahs, stubbles; land storage and incineration of waste; waste water handling; the use of fluorinated industrial gases.

According to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), carried out by Working Group I and published in August 2021, greenhouse gas emissions produced by human activities are responsible for increasing global temperatures and of broad and rapid changes in the atmosphere, ocean, cryosphere and biosphere. The likely range of human-caused global surface temperature increase from 1850-1900 to 2010-2019 is 0.8°C-1.3°C, with a best estimate of 1.07°C.

Global warming is driving many changes in different regions of the world that include increasing the frequency and severity of storms, hurricanes, floods, landslides, heat waves or extreme cold, droughts, water shortages, forest fires and other disasters. Also, the increase in temperature causes slow-onset processes, such as sea level rise, coastal erosion, salinization, gradual change in precipitation regime, thawing of permafrost, shrinking of the ice cap and mountain glaciers. At the same time, climate changes cause the degradation and loss of terrestrial and marine biodiversity. Biodiversity naturally contributes to climate change mitigation (oceans, soils, forests, wetlands act as carbon and heat sinks) and adaptation to them (eg floodplains and wetlands provide protection against floods; forested slopes protect against landslides of land, etc.). However, the decline of biodiversity causes a lower absorption of greenhouse gas emissions, which amplifies climate change, as well as a series of other adverse effects (the proliferation of pests and invasive alien species, the emergence of new viruses or favoring their migration, the decline of species, the maintenance of the ever-increasing level of ocean acidification)".

The IPCC report predicts that, in the coming decades, climate change will increase in all regions. As the global temperature rises, the extreme changes continue to get bigger.

For example, each additional increase in temperature by 0.5°C degrees causes clear increases in the intensity and frequency of hot extremes, including heat waves, heavy precipitation, perceptible variations in the intensity and frequency of meteorological, agricultural and hydrological drought in some regions of the world. In the case of a 2°C temperature increase scenario, compared to pre-industrial levels, extreme temperatures would more often reach critical tolerance thresholds for agriculture and health. All these phenomena also threaten the full exercise of human rights, including the rights to life, water and sanitation, food, health and housing.

According to the material hosted by mmediu.ro, the main effects of climate change on health are related to extreme weather events, changes in the distribution of diseases influenced by the climate, as well as changes in environmental and social conditions. Health effects include injuries, infections, exposure to chemical hazards and mental health consequences. Floods cause deaths and contaminate drinking water, causing diseases and infections. Heat waves have become more frequent and more intense, causing premature deaths. The spread of tick species, the Asian tiger mosquito and other disease carriers increases the risk of diseases such as Lyme disease, tick-borne encephalitis, West Nile fever, dengue fever, etc. Moreover, the effects of climate change jeopardize the prospects of economic development, increase the risks of hunger and therefore potentiate conflicts and forced displacement and deepen existing vulnerabilities, socio-economic inequalities and gender discrimination. In recent decades, the countries of the world have concentrated their efforts both in order to mitigate the impact of climate change through measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and to increase the capacity to adapt to the effects of climate change.

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According to the Ministry of the Environment, Romania's contribution to global emissions is insignificant, only 0.3% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions and less than 3% of the total emissions of the EU countries. In the context of global warming, climate analyzes show for Romania a progressive increase in the average air temperature throughout the 21st century, in all seasons, but more pronounced in the summer and winter seasons. Also, from 1901 to the present, Romania had in every decade from one to four extreme dry/rainy years, with an increasing number of droughts being identified after 1981. In the period 1961 - 2010, the evolution of the intensity of the heat from Romania showed an increasing trend, especially after 1981. In addition, IPCC estimates indicate that, at least according to global estimates, the precipitation in the region of which Romania is a part will change, so that winters will become wetter and drier summers. Climate change affects Romania both from the perspective of the quality of life, the instability of economic and social services, and from the perspective of the development of sectoral activities, agriculture, forestry, fishing, industry, energy, transport, construction, tourism.