Copernicus: The warmest october in recorded history

Meteorologists are noting record after record when it comes to temperatures. October 2023 has been declared the "warmest October ever recorded worldwide," continuing a series of monthly records that began in June, as announced by the European observatory Copernicus, which states that 2023 will "almost certainly" surpass the annual record set in 2016. These new measurements, resulting in droughts leading to famine, devastating wildfires, or more intense hurricanes, are fueling the warnings of scientists and will provide the backdrop for the 28th UN Climate Conference in Dubai (November 30-December 12)."We can state with almost certainty that 2023 will be the warmest year on record," and "the sense of the urgent need for ambitious climate action in the lead-up to COP28 has never been stronger," said Samantha Burgess, Deputy Chief of the Climate Change Service (C3S) at Copernicus.

The past month, with an average temperature of 15.38 degrees Celsius worldwide, surpasses the previous record from October 2019 by 0.4 degrees Celsius, according to Copernicus. The anomaly is "exceptional" for global temperatures. October 2023 is "1.7 degrees Celsius warmer than the October average from 1850-1900," before the effect of human greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, as stated by Copernicus. Since January, the average temperature has been the highest ever measured in the first ten months of the year, exceeding the climate of the years 1850-1900 by 1.43 degrees Celsius, according to the European observatory. More than ever, 2023 is approaching the iconic limit (+1.5 degrees Celsius) set in the Paris Agreement, for which COP28 must establish the first official assessment and, if possible, the first correction, according to AFP. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) estimated in the spring that this limit will be exceeded for the first time within a 12-month period in the next five years. However, it will be necessary to measure 1.5 degrees Celsius, on average, over several years to consider it a climatic threshold. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, mandated by the United Nations (UN), estimates a 50% chance of this occurring in the years 2030-2035, given the rate of GHG emissions, primarily from the use of fossil fuels.

Copernicus measurements date back to 1940, but they can be compared to the climate of past millennia, determined using tree ring data or ice core samples. These data suggest that current temperatures are likely the highest in over 100,000 years.

"Life on Earth is under siege," warned a group of scientists in a stark report at the end of October, highlighting the "minimal progress" made by humanity in reducing carbon dioxide emissions. In October, drought affected regions in the United States and Mexico on different continents, while vast areas of the planet experienced wetter conditions than usual, often associated with storms and cyclones. Ocean overheating plays a significant role in these records. Sea surface temperatures have broken records every month since April, including October, with an average of 20.79 degrees Celsius. This increase results in more intense storms, loaded with more evaporated water, and accelerates the melting of floating ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland, crucial for retaining fresh water from glaciers and preventing a massive rise in sea levels. The Antarctic sea ice has remained at a record low level for this season, 11% below the average, according to C3S. In the Arctic, in the north, October was the seventh warmest month ever recorded.