DORIN COJOCARU, APRIL:  "The price of milk will resume its rise starting in July 2015"

The elimination of the milk quota starting next year, combined with the major stocks of powdered milk already existing in Europe, will lead to a drop in the number of sheep and bovines in Romania, said Dorin Cojocaru, the president of the Romanian Professional Association of the Milk Industry (APRIL). "Under these circumstances, I predict the price of milk will resume its rise starting with July 2015", he stated.

The president of APRIL told us that he has been issuing warnings for a long time about the impact of the Russian embargo on our agrifood market and he considers that the Romanian authorities could have taken measures to mitigate its negative effects on farmers: "The Ministry of Agriculture must urgently set up a Forecast Department made up of professionals. We also need a Milk Observer because the market lacks transparency concerning the evolution of prices and transactions. We always end up asking ourselves what we are going to do only when we are in the middle of a crisis. The Russian embargo won't be lifted any time soon, given that they have entered agreements with countries such as China and India".

Dorin Cojocaru also told us that he stands by his predictions for this year, reiterating that by the end of 2014 the price of milk will increase by approximately 15%. The larger supply will lead to a drop in prices of approximately 10% compared to 2013, he told us, and he mentioned the fact that the phenomenon will cause investments in farms, to lose attractiveness, just as they were beginning to develop.

He explained on Friday, during our conference: "New Zealand and Australia together are producing as much milk as all of Europe combined and they make the price. China's play has driven Europe to stock up on milk, and then the Chinese renewed their partnerships with Australia and New Zealand and prices on the international market began dropping vertiginously.

The APRIL official maintains that all of these issues, including the impact of the Russian embargo, will burst after the electoral campaign, and he said that the authorities are avoiding the debate on the matter, which is detrimental to the market.

Mr. Cojocaru said that starting in 2015, when the quotas for milk will disappear, Romanian farmers will see heavy competition from the cheap foreign milk, and the authorities don't have any strategy to counter that.