Două state noi? Sau nu?

S-a săvârşit. Ceea ce era de prevăzut. Doneţk şi Lugansk au fost recunoscute de către Parlamentul Federaţiei Ruse drept state independente. Mai mult, Parlamentul Federaţiei Ruse, într-o sesiune de urgenţă, a ratificat cele două decizii şi a recunoscut în mod oficial statutul de etnii statale independente a celor două regiuni din Donbas, controlate de separatiştii rusofoni şi în care limba oficială prin vot popular s-a stabilit să fie limba rusă. Iar Consiliul Suprem de Apărare al Federaţiei Ruse, prezidat de către Vladimir Putin, a ordonat trimiterea de trupe şi tehnică militară în Doneţk şi Lugansk în scopul "menţinerii păcii". Avem de-a face cu două noi state care apar pe harta lumii sau cu o tranziţie către unificarea cu "mama Rusia"?

Extrem de interesantă prima reacţie a Statelor Unite şi a statelor NATO. Un înalt oficial al Casei Albe a lăsat cu gura căscată întreaga planetă, declarând răspicat că aceste decizii cardinale privind Doneţk şi Lugansk nu reprezintă un act de agresiune al Moscovei şi nici trimiterea de trupe acolo pentru menţinerea păcii, întrucât separarea celor două provincii durează de mai mult timp şi s-a făcut prin referendum popular şi nu în urma unei invazii ruşeşti. Mai mult, deciziile recente luate de parlamentarii din Doneţk şi Lugansk şi omologate ca atare de Parlamentul Federaţiei Ruse nu sunt acte de agresiune, ci acte democratice. Prin urmare, nu sunt întrunite condiţiile pentru ca statele NATO, împreună sau separat, să definească cele întâmplate drept un act de agresiune împotriva Ucrainei şi, în consecinţă, să adopte măsurile punitive anunţate pentru o asemenea eventualitate. Scurt pe doi. În acelaşi timp, rând pe rând, statele NATO anunţă că nu vor recunoaşte statalitatea celor două regiuni. Să vedem dacă nu vor exista şi excepţii. Se repetă cumva pe invers situaţia provinciei Kosovo, transformată în stat după încheierea războiului împotriva Iugoslaviei şi destrămarea acesteia? Mult timp, Kosovo, creat sub presiune americană şi occidentală, nu a fost recunoscut de unele state membre de atunci ale Uniunii Europene sau devenite membre ulterior, cum a fost de pildă România. Nici în prezent statalitatea Kosovo nu este recunoscută de Spania, stat UE şi NATO. E interesant de văzut ce se va întâmpla din această perspectivă în viitor cu Doneţk şi Lugansk.

Un discurs al preşedintelui Putin, vizând modul în care a fost creată Ucraina prin anexarea unor teritorii şi a unor populaţii care n-au avut nicio legătură cu Rusia istorică, inclusiv teritorii istorice aparţinând României, conţine informaţii interesante despre ce ar putea urma. Deşi Federaţia Rusă a recunoscut în mod oficial statutul independent al celor două regiuni, Putin susţine că, istoric vorbind, acestea aparţin Rusiei. Ceea ce ar putea să ne conducă la concluzia că, de fapt, are loc un proces de anexare treptată, "diplomatică" a Donbasului. Din acest punct de vedere, reacţia pe care urmează să o aibă statele NATO, dincolo de nerecunoaşterea deciziilor cardinale luate de parlamentarii din Donbas şi de parlamentarii de la Moscova, va fi decisivă. În mod cert, ceea ce se întâmplă, inclusiv poziţionarea armatei Federaţiei Ruse în Doneţk şi Lugansk, nu este până una alta apreciat de oficialii NATO drept un act de agresiune împotriva Ucrainei. Şi, elocvent, nici măcar oficialii ucraineni nu au decis ceva în acest sens.

Dacă nu este agresiune, nu este război. Dacă nu este război, nu se pot aplica sancţiunile preconizate. Dacă nu este război şi nu vor fi sancţiuni, atunci toate semnalele de alarmă trase de oficialii NATO şi de şefii de state membre se dovedesc a fi fost simple acte de propagandă.

Opinia Cititorului ( 10 )

1. fără titlu
(mesaj trimis de anonim în data de 22.02.2022, 14:23)
Dupa victoriile NATO in Libia, Irak, Siria si Afganistan, o sa urmeze o victorie si in estul Ucrainei. Apreciem declaratia comicului ca Ucraina nu are luate teritorii de la nimeni.
1. 1.1.  fără titlu (răspuns la opinia nr. 1)
  (mesaj trimis de anonim în data de 22.02.2022, 14:51)
  Romanii,nu trebuie sa isi faca nici o grija in privinta Securitatii Romaniei. Cand in fruntea Tarii,il avem pe "excelenta sa",Profesorul de FIZICA cu VASTE CUNOSTINTE ale Fizicii,care la orice incercare a vreunui stat agresor de a ataca Romania,"don profesore" se v-a urca pe schiuri si v-a SLOBOZI crosa de golf,incarcata cu electricitate ,iar dusmanii si masinariile lor vor fi distruse instantaneu. Apoi,la APARARE,il avem pe "don profesore de limba engleza" Vasalica Dancu,care imediat v-a informa tarile NATO cu limba lui engleza mai curata si clara ca a lui FOTA si puzderie de OMULETI VERZI vor sosi la Bucuresti si vor lupta ca si SPARTANII la TERMOPILE,invingad atacatorii. Strategia militara,este asigurata de "libidinosul" PAVEL POPESCU,care din pozitia de presedinte al Comisiei de Aparare a Camerei Deputatilor,v-a da directiile de actiune ale Armatei Romane,cu un glas ca de PITIGOI,iar Generalii si Colonei,vor lua armele si o vor TULI pe front cu PIEPTURILE de ARAMA care nu vor putea fi strapunse nici de Rachete ca sa nu mai vorbim de Gloante. Ferice de POPORUL ROMAN cu asemenea conducatori ai ARMIEI ROMANE. Asa ca cei care ar dori ATACAREA Romaniei,trebuie sa fie atenti la MAGARUSI ca dau cu COPITELE. Cat despre ocuparea DONBASULUI de TARUL de la CREMLIN,treaba ,o sa ramana ca in GARA.!
  1.2.  Toate ca toate (răspuns la opinia nr. 1.1)
  (mesaj trimis de Oarecare în data de 22.02.2022, 16:18)
  Frate, nu am obiceiul sa critic erorile gramaticale, dar e deranjant la ochi sa citesc tot timpul în comentariu ... v-a face, v-a drege.
  Sa nu rămână ca-n tren:)
  1.3.  fără titlu (răspuns la opinia nr. 1.1)
  (mesaj trimis de anonim în data de 22.02.2022, 17:17)
  Pe tine, cu vastele tare cunostinte de limba romana,in ce pozitie te vezi ?
  1.4.  fără titlu (răspuns la opinia nr. 1.1)
  (mesaj trimis de anonim în data de 22.02.2022, 18:10)
  Ce conteaza, Gogu ''v-a'' comenta...il doare talentul.
  1.5.  fără titlu (răspuns la opinia nr. 1.1)
  (mesaj trimis de Petre în data de 22.02.2022, 22:03)
  Anonimule, se vede ca nu prea ai trecut pe la scoala, pentru ca stai rau de tot cu gramatica. Exemplu: corect se scrie "va urca", "va informa", etc., nu "v-a urca", "v-a informa", cum scrii tu. In locul tau as sta potolit, nu as mai posta nimic pentru ca esti de rasul lumii. Poate nu-ti dai seama , dar aceste greseli nu are voie sa le faca nici un copil de clasa a II-a.
  1.6.  fără titlu (răspuns la opinia nr. 1.5)
  (mesaj trimis de Miclea în data de 22.02.2022, 22:07)
  Bine punctat. Nu ma pricep la jurnalistica, dar eu as cauta posibitati de a elimina orice comentariu sau articol unde gramatica si limba romana, in general, este batjocorita de niste analfabeti sau agramati.
2. Maestre, publica discursul
(mesaj trimis de The Brute în data de 22.02.2022, 20:20)
Incredibila conferinta a lui Putin, a fost integral publicata in Handelsblatt, un Manual de istorie, merita publicata, Aber das ist noch nicht alles. Ende 1991 beliefen sich die Schuldverpflichtungen der UdSSR gegenüber dem Ausland und internationalen Fonds auf rund 100 Milliarden Dollar. Ursprünglich war man davon ausgegangen, dass diese Darlehen von allen ehemaligen Sowjetrepubliken im Verhältnis zu ihrem wirtschaftlichen Potenzial solidarisch zurückgezahlt werden würden. Russland übernahm jedoch die gesamten sowjetischen Schulden und zahlte sie in voller Höhe zurück. Sie hat diesen Prozess 2017 abgeschlossen.
3. fără titlu
(mesaj trimis de anonim în data de 22.02.2022, 20:40)
The birth of the baby twins: Russia’s strategic swing drives NATOstan nuts
4166 Views February 22, 2022 6 Comments
By Pepe Escobar, posted with the author’s permission and cross-posted to other sites
History will register that the birth of the baby twins – Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics – only a few hours before 2/22/22, was simultaneous to the birth of the real, 21st century multipolar world.
As my columns have stressed for a few years now, Vladimir Putin has been carefully nurturing his inner Sun Tzu. And now it’s all in the open: “Let your plans be dark and impenetrable as night, and when you move, fall like a thunderbolt.”
The thunderbolt was months in the process of being meticulously polished. To paraphrase Lenin, who “created Ukraine” (copyright Putin), we did live many decades in only these past few days. It all started with the detailed demands of security guarantees sent to the Americans, which Moscow knew would be rejected. Then there was the Russia-China joint statement at the start of the Winter Olympics – which codifies not only the strategic partnership but also the key tenets of the multipolar world.
The culmination was a stunning, nearly one hour-long address to the nation by Putin shortly after the Russian Security Council live session deliberating on the request for independence by the DPR and the LPR (here is a condensed version.)
A few hours later, at an emergency UN Security Council meeting, Russian Permanent Representative Vasily Nebenzya precisely outlined why the recognition of the baby twins does not bury the Minsk agreements.
The baby twins actually declared their independence in May 2014. In 2015 they signed the Minsk agreements as one of the interested parties. Theoretically they could even be back within Ukraine if Kiev would ever decide to respect the agreements, which will never happen because the US has vetoed it since 2015. Moreover, the people of Donbass do not want to be subjected to a regime harboring neo-Nazis.
As Nebenzya outlined, “I would like to remind you that at the time of the conclusion of the Minsk agreements, the LPR and DPR had already declared independence. The fact that Russia today recognized it does not change the composition of the parties to the Minsk agreements, since Russia is not one (…) Another thing is that the Minsk agreements have long been openly sabotaged by Ukraine under the auspices of our Western colleagues. Now we see that many colleagues want to sign that the Minsk agreements are dead. But this is not the case (…) We are still open to diplomacy, but we do not intend to allow a new bloody massacre in the Donbass.”
And here’s the clincher, directly addressing imperial support for the killing of ethnic Russians in Donbass: “The main task of our decision [on recognizing independence] was to preserve and protect these lives. This is more important than all your threats.”
There you go: Responsibility to Protect (R2P), a concept invented by the Americans to launch wars, used by Russia for preventing one.
That certified nullity, German chancellor Scholz, deriding Putin’s ch aracterization of a genocide in Donbass as “laughable”, was a decisive factor in the birth of the baby wins. Putin, in his address to the nation, especially took time to detail the Odessa massacre: “We cannot but shudder when we remember about the situation in Odessa, when people were burned alive (…) And those criminals who did this, they are not punished (…) But we know their names, and we will do everything to punish them (…) and to bring them to justice.”
What about China?
Geopolitically, in Eurasian terms, two huge questions stand out: the role of the CSTO and the response fr om China.
If we look at the Article 19, Chapter VI of the CSTO ch arter, we learn that, “any state sharing the goals and principles of the Organization and being ready to undertake the obligations containing in this ch arter and other international treaties and resolutions effective within the framework of the Organization may become a member of the Organization.”
That would open the door for the baby twins, as soon as they have finalized all the bureaucratic endeavors pertaining to new, independent nations, to request CSTO membership. Incidentally, CSTO secretary-general Pashinian has already gone to Moscow to discuss it.
China is a way more complex proposition. One of the key tenets of Beijing’s foreign policy is the fight against separatism – embedded in the foundation of the SCO. So Beijing cannot possibly recognize the baby twins, or what would amount to Novorossiya – yes, Putin did pronounce the magic word – before Kiev itself does or, a serious possibility, completely disintegrates.
The Foreign Ministry so far has been extremely cautious. Wang Yi has reiterated “China’s long-standing position that the legitimate security concerns of all countries must be respected, and the purposes & principles of the UN ch arter must be upheld.”
Further on down the road, presumably after some serious exchanges between Wang Yi and Lavrov, China can always find myriad ways to unofficially help the baby twins – including advancing BRI-related connectivity and sustainable development projects.
As for Kiev disintegration, that’s directly linked to Moscow demanding the immediate stop of the mini-blitzkrieg against Donbass, otherwise they will bear full responsibility. Yes, regime stalwarts will be hunted and punished – complete with a possible War Crimes Tribunal. No wonder all sorts of oligarchic/political rats, big and small, are scurrying away, to Lviv, Poland and the UK.
The Munich effect
The intervention of all 12 members at the Security Council session, combined with Putin’s address to the nation was the stuff of gripping geopolitical drama. Putin’s body language and the look in his eyes testified to the immense gravity of the moment – and it all came to the forefront when he embarked in a concise history lesson spanning a century.
Barely containing his anger at the countless ways Russia has been vilified by the West, and taking no prisoners when referring to communism, what mostly stood out was the clear-cut rendition of the insurmountable antagonism between the Anglo-American islands and the civilizational Heartland – or the clash between maritime powers and land powers. That Eurasia classic was the bulk of his exposition: the recognition of the baby twins took less than three minutes.
The Munich Security Conference, this past weekend, had made it all so explicit. Munich, as terrifying as it was in terms of a congregation of headless chickens posing as eagles, at least confirmed everything is in the open.
The enemy is Russia. NATO infinite expansion – to outer space – is against Russia. And then we had a parade of add-on threats: no disarmament in Eastern Europe, cutting off the Russian economy fr om the EU, end of Nord Stream 2, Ukraine in NATO, world order built on “universal liberal values”.
Munich spelled out No Compromise Whatsoever – which was exactly what Putin, Lavrov, Patrushev and co. expected, the warmongering rhetoric burying any meaningful discussion of migration, inflation, cyber wars, the European energy crisis and, of course, the only thing that matters for the MICIMATT (military-industrial-congressi onal-intelligence-media-academ ia-think tank complex, as defined by Ray McGovern): let’s milk this Eurotrash lot for untold billions in new contracts, let’s isolate Russia, let’s destroy Nord Stream 2 to sell them our ultra expensive LNG, let’s keep them on a leash – forever.
So actually it’s not even war against Russia: the $30 trillion-indebted Empire with a woke military attached simply could not afford it. Not to mention the certified freak out in case they receive a phone call fr om Mr. Khinzal and Mr. Zircon : cue to the spectacular Russian display of “military and technical” superiority, hypersonic and otherwise – staged, irony of ironies, in synch with the circus in Munich.
What we have here is so lame: just a lowlife offer-you-can’t-refuse racket to be inflicted on the EU.
The Indivisible Security dance
The rabid Munich “No Compromise” show; the imperially-ordered Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg against Donbass; and the role of the US Lack of Intelligence Community – an Andrei Martyanov-coined howler – altogether sealed the deal for the Security Council deliberations and Putin’s decision.
Considering the ideological stupidity of the current Brussels gang – Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, Borrell –, incapable of understanding even basic economics, the fact remains that the EU without Russian energy is doomed. Martyanov stresses the algorithm: Russia can afford the break up with Europe. Europe cannot. The US just wants to collect. And we’re not even talking about the dire, incoming ramifications of the systemic crisis across NATOstan.
Even as Moscow plays a very long, calculated game, as it stands that does not necessarily mean that Russia will be “winning” the baby twins while “losing” Europe. Russia’s strategic swing repeatedly baffles the Atlanticist combo. The US lack of intelligence community was predicting a Russian “aggression” every other day – and still is. Instead they got the baby twins as the latest independent republics of the Global South.
Even before Munich, the Ukro crypto-blitzkrieg, and the recognition of the baby twins, Moscow had again warned it may respond with “military and technical measures” to ensure its own security after the US and NATO blatantly ignored key points fr om its proposal for a long-term European security architecture, and instead “cherry-picked” issues fr om a package deal.
Moscow will not let the Americans run away fr om the by now notorious 10-page Russian response. Putin, addressing the Stavka, had already warned “we are in a situation (…) whe rewe are forced to resolve it.” Which bring us to what John Helmer niftly qualified as Russia’s black box defense. The beauty is no one knows what’s inside the black box.
Enter, once again, the “military-technical measures” that will be “reciprocal” (Putin) to what US and NATOstan are already deploying against Russia. They won’t necessarily be implemented in the Black Sea, the Sea of Azov, in the airspace above Donbass, even in cyberspace. It could be anywhe re– fr om the Syrian theater to Latin America.
Surprise! That’s what strategic ambivalence, ambiguity, or – let’s get down to the rhythm – swing is all about. You don’t believe in the principle of indivisible security? Fine. Now we dictate the security rhythm. You’re not gonna stop deploying nuclear weapons outside your territory? Fine. Here’s some reciprocity. You’re not gonna accept legally binding guarantees of our security? Fine. Meet our “military-technical” measures.
Now dance, suckers.
4. Doua state noi
(mesaj trimis de antinu în data de 22.02.2022, 21:37)
Poate ar fi mai clar daca ati si numi inalta autoritate.
In rest, va reamintiti de Kosovo, e bine, chiar foarte bine, dar nu suflati o vorba despre garantiile date Ukrainei de catre Rusia, cu ocazia renuntarii la armele nucleare. Erau garantate, repet, de catre Rusia, frontierele de atunci, dar garantia ruseasca nu a durat 15 ani, in nici un caz.
Concluzia, e bazata pe o constructie foarte slaba, avand in vedere doar parerea Rusiei.
Dezamagitor, maestre.....