DUEL BETWEEN THE SOCIOLOGISTS OF THE PSD Alin Teodorescu predicts that Ponta will lose in the second round

Sociologist Alin Teodorescu told us that the outcome of the second round of the presidential elections has been known for a few months now: "Look at what has happened in the presidential elections of 2004 and you will understand what will happen on November 16th", he told us, at the end of last week.

The statement granted to the BURSA newspaper is a veritable challenge posed to the sociologists of the PSD (Alin Teodorescu was a deputy of the PSD, minister chancellor in the Cabinet of former prime-minister Adrian Năstase, but subsequently suspended his PSD membership).

The way things played out in 2004 could happen again this time, in favor of Klaus Iohannis, the sociologist alluded. It is possible that the results of the polls that Alin Teodorescu has access to are heavily different from those of the polls that the PSD has released to the public.

For instance, in the first round, the Sociopol polls credited Victor Ponta with 41% of the votes, and Klaus Iohannis with 28%, and discussing the second round, România TV (the TV network owned by Sebastian Ghiţă, who is getting ready to become the executive president of the PSD, after Victor Ponta has been promoted to prime-minister) quoted the Sociopol forecast, which states that Ponta would blow Iohannis out of the water with a score of 55% to 45%.

Alin Teodorescu said, in May: "Victor Ponta will go into the second round, as a winner, but from there, he will be defeated by whoever presents themselves as the sole candidate of the opposition. That is what we know right now. It could change", (according to an article posted on voxpublica.realitatea.net).

The first round of the presidential elections has validated the electoral scenario discussed by Alin Teodorescu six months ago, without invalidating the Sociopol poll of Mirel Palada, former government spokesperson, currently advisor to Victor Ponta (even though within the acceptable error margins, the forecast of the institute was a bit exaggerated; Ponta, backed by the PSD+UNPR+PC coalition, came out on top in the first round, getting 40.44% of the "pie", whereas Iohannis, backed by the PNL+ PDL alliance, got 30.37%, beat the estimate by almost 2.5%). (see chart 1)

• The presidential elections of 2004, history repeating itself?

On December 12th, 2004, even though he had started off with just 33.92% in the first round, Traian Băsescu (the candidate of the "Justice and Truth Alliance" made up of PNL+PD) defeated Adrian Năstase (the candidate of the National Union, made up of PSD+PUR), with 51.23% to 48.77%, who was credited with 40.97% in the polls. In other words, Adrian Năstase had a head start of seven percentage points and not only did he squander his advantage, but was actually crushed by his opponent, who gained 17.31 percentage points, in two weeks. (see chart 2)

In May this year, Alin Teodorescu explained: "There have been three types of voter pools in Romania. For twenty-two years now.

The pool of the PSD, which has certain characteristics, it has 3.7 million disciplined voters, but now has about three; the liberal pool, (with a centrist orientation) that has less, just 1.5 - 2 million voters, quite disciplined as well; and then there is the youth pool, aged below 40, which rejects Romanian liberalism and Romanian social-democracy and turns to third-party political candidates, to the outsiders.

This is the pool that supported Corneliu Vadim Tudor in 2000 and which later rallied behind Traian Băsescu and the PDL. We are talking about nearly 2.5 million voters, who are less disciplined, but who, at certain moments, show up to vote and tilt the balance. Thus, in the second round, Victor Ponta still needs one of these three pools; he has one of them, he needs at least another one". (voxpublica.net.ro.)

• Liviu Dragnea: "Mayors should take their «office clothes» off and mobilize the electorate"

Sources from within the PSD have told us that the success of Victor Ponta, on November 16th, is uncertain, in spite of the electoral handouts that the Government continuously distributed left and right (the cut of the Social Security Contributions, the raise of the government aids for underprivileged children) and in spite of the ordinance issued by Dragnea, which has made political faction switching legal for 45 days, has swelled the ranks of the PSD with 400 new mayors of other political affiliations.

It is unclear yet, if the PSD mayors in Transylvania are going to leave their "work clothes" at home, like Liviu Dragnea has urged them on Friday, and mobilize to convince the electorate to vote for Victor Ponta and push him up the Cotroceni palace hill.

We do know, however, that the scenario discussed six months ago by Alin Teodorescu, has come true in the first round of the presidential elections, and we also know that, when asked: "Could Iohannis become president?", Alin Teodorescu also said, again six months ago: "He will run for president. If he gets backed by the two pools, PNL and PDL, he will win."

There is still plenty that could happen... The trip continues!