Europe Elect survey: EPP, in first place in the European parliamentary elections

The European People's Party (EPP) looks set to win the European Parliament elections, with 182 MEPs, to be seconded by the European Social Democrats (S&D) with 136 seats, according to the latest Europe Elect poll for Euractiv ahead of the election this week's European elections, which, depending on each member state, take place between June 6-9. Together with the liberal group Renew Europe, which would, according to the quoted source, obtain 81 seats, the centrist majority, which has dominated the European Parliament for the past five years, will prevail with 399 out of 720 MEPs, i.e. a three-thirds majority of 55. 4%.

This majority could be more consistent, if - despite the disagreements of S&D and Renew Europe regarding a negotiation with some conservative parties or close to the extreme right - it will also collaborate, as the EPP wants, with the political formation Fratelli d'Italia led by the prime minister Italian Giorgia Meloni.

Even without this collaboration, the quoted source claims that the three European political forces - EPP, S&D and Renew Europe - will retain control over the policy-making cycle in the European Parliament and have a say in key decisions such as the budget European Union.

According to Europe Elect, while both EPP and S&D expect to keep roughly the same seats as before, Renew Europe will see a 20-seat reduction in the number of MEPs in the European Parliament elections, from 102 - in the period 2019-2024 - to 81 seats. It means Renew is fighting for third place in the European Parliament alongside the right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and the right-wing Identity and Democracy (ID) faction. The cited source claims that the loss of those from Renew Europe can be partly explained by the electoral disaster of the liberal Spanish party Ciudadanos, which has had 8 MEPs in the last five years. After the very poor result in the Spanish elections, the parliamentarians and leadership of the Ciudadanos party left the political formation and joined the People's Party of Spain, which belongs to the EPP. It seems that the failure of the French liberals will also contribute to the electoral failure of Renew Europe, where the coalition around President Emmanuel Macron would obtain only 15 seats in the European Parliament compared to the 23 it had in the period 2019-2024, according to the cited source.

As for the grouping of the European Greens, they would get 55 MEPs, 17 fewer than in the recent legislature, 2019-2024. Although the Greens played an important role in the adoption of the Green Deal legislation, their loss of seats risks reducing the group's importance and negotiating position in the EU Parliament, Europe Elect points out. Although the Greens have gained new members from Eastern and Southern Europe over the past five years, this will only partially offset the losses. Around five places will come from Spain, Latvia, Croatia and Slovenia.

The expected losses of the Liberals and Greens, as well as the gains of the conservative and far-right parties, will dilute the traditional majority of the center and shift the balance of power to the right. The right-wing European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia party, are expected to increase from 68 to 79 seats. The right-wing group Identity and Democracy (ID) would gain an additional ten seats, bringing its total to 69 MEPs. The success that the two political groups will register, will lead to certain mandatory concessions from the EPP and S&D at the time of the elaboration of normative acts in the European Parliament. Moreover, both ECR and ID could give the EPP the possibility to block certain normative acts initiated by S&D and Renew Europe. A first step in this direction was taken last year, when the ECR and the ID tried to block the natural habitat restoration law in Europe. If the question of blocking this act were to arise now, the conservative right together with the EPP will have enough votes to do so, according to the quoted source. will have enough seats to achieve a blocking majority if necessary.

However, if Giorgia Meloni unites the European conservative right around her, as Marine Le Pen, Viktor Orban and Poland's Mateusz Morawiecki are demanding, that group would become the second political force in the European Parliament, with 160 MEPs.

As for the European Left, according to the cited source, it will remain at 38 deputies, i.e. the same number from the 2019-2024 legislature. However, the future of the far-left group is uncertain, as Sahra Wagenknecht, the representative of the new conservative alliance of the populist left (BSW) recently confirmed that she has found enough support to form a new political group in the European Parliament, which could mean the defection of some members of the European Left to the BSW.