Global trade moderated its annual decline, against the background of the accelerated decline in the euro zone

The volume of global trade moderated its annual decline to 3.5% in September 2023, from 3.9% in the previous month, according to the latest World Trade Monitor report by the Dutch institute CPB (see chart). The monthly advance was 0.7%, after an increase of 0.4% in the previous month.

Global imports moderated their annual decline to 4.5%, from 5.3%, on the back of a 0.6% monthly increase, and exports maintained their annual decline at 2.5%, amid a monthly increases of 0.8%.

The volume of trade from emerging economies decreased by an annual rate of 1.3%, after a decrease of 0.5% in the previous month, against the background of a monthly increase of 0.2%, and the volume of trade from the level advanced economies moderated its annual decline to 4.6%, from 5.6%, amid a monthly increase of 0.9%.

Advanced economies' imports moderated their annual decline to 5.2% in September 2023 from 6.8% on the back of a 1.1% month-on-month increase, and exports fell at an annual rate of 4% after a decrease of 4.4% in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly advance of 0.7%.

At the level of emerging economies, imports fell by an annual rate of 2.8%, after a decrease of 2% in the previous month, against the background of a monthly decrease of 0.5%, while exports increased by an annual rate of 0.2%, after an increase of 1% in the previous month, in the conditions of a monthly advance of 0.8%.

China's trade grew 3.4% year-on-year in September 2023, following a 5.1% rise in the previous month, amid a 1.4% monthly increase. Exports from Asia's largest economy rose at an annual rate of 5.4%, after rising 5.5% on the back of a 3.2% monthly advance, and imports moderated their annual growth to 1 .4%, from 4.7%, in the conditions of a monthly stagnation.

At the level of the emerging economies of Asia, excluding China, there was a moderation in the annual decline in trade, up to 7.2%, from 7.6%, against the background of a monthly decrease of 1.9%. The volume of exports decreased by an annual rate of 6.4%, after a decrease of 6.7%, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 1.6%, and the volume of imports decreased by an annual rate of 7.8%, after an 8.4% decline, on the back of a 2.2% monthly decline.

The volume of trade in Central and Eastern Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) accelerated its annual growth in September 2023 to 12.1%, from 11.6%, on the back of a monthly increase of 0.8% . The volume of exports accelerated its annual growth to 18.4%, from 17.1%, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 0.6%, and imports moderated its annual growth to 4.5%, from 4.9%, against the background of a monthly increase of 1%.

The euro area trade volume index accelerated its annual decline to 7.6% from 6.9%, amid a monthly drop of 0.8%. Imports fell at an annual rate of 8.3%, after falling 8.5% on the back of a 0.9% monthly decline, and exports accelerated their annual decline to 6.9% from 5.4%, in the conditions of a monthly decrease of 0.6%.

US trade rose at a 2.3% monthly rate, after a 0.4% decline in the previous month, on the back of a 2.3% increase in imports and a 2.3% increase in exports. The annual increase was 0.2%, after a 1.2% decline in the previous month, amid a 1.4% annual decrease in imports and a 2.1% annual increase in imports.

Japan's trade volume fell at an annual rate of 2.8 percent, after a 6.2 percent drop in the previous month, amid a 3.4 percent monthly increase. Exports fell at an annual rate of 0.1%, after a 4% drop in the previous month, amid a 4.4% monthly increase, and imports fell at an annual rate of 5.3%, after a decrease of 8.2%, in the conditions of a monthly increase of 2.4%.

The dynamics of commercial exchanges in Latin America was influenced especially by exports. They accelerated their annual decline to 5.4% from 1.1% on the back of a 1% monthly decline. The total volume of trade registered an annual decrease of 5.5%, after a decrease of 4%, against the background of a monthly decrease of 0.5%, while imports decreased by an annual rate of 5.6% , after a decrease of 7%, following a monthly increase of 0.1%.

Data from the Dutch institute CPB also shows a 0.5% annual increase in global industrial production in September 2023, after a 0.4% increase in the previous month, on the back of a 0.2% monthly advance.

At the level of developed economies, industrial production moderated its annual decline to 2.2%, from 2.3% in the previous month, on the back of a monthly decrease of 0.1%.

Annual growth at the level of emerging economies was maintained at 2.9%, in conditions of a monthly increase of 0.5%, against the background of a monthly increase of 0.4% in industrial production in Central and Eastern Europe, a monthly advance of 1% in China and a monthly decrease of 0.6% in the emerging economies of Asia, excluding China.

While industrial production in the euro zone accelerated its annual decline to 5.3% from 4.3% in the previous month, amid a 1% monthly decline, US industrial production fell at an annual rate of 0.2%, against the background of a monthly increase of 0.1%.