Global warming - constantly increasing, but the process is not yet irreversible

The data provided by the meteorologists indicates a constant warming at the level of the entire globe. After the record heat of 2023, the year 2024 started pessimistically: never before has a January been so hot, for the first time, the planet exceeded the warming threshold of 1.5°C, compared to the pre-industrial era, for 12 consecutive months. Between February 2023 and January 2024, the global surface air temperature was 1.52°C higher than in the period 1850-1900, according to data from the European Copernicus Observatory. "This does not mean that we have exceeded the 1.5°C threshold set in Paris in 2015 to try to stop global warming and its consequences," recalls Richard Betts, director of climate change impact studies at the UK's National Met Office. for this to happen, this limit would have to be exceeded in a stable manner for several decades. "However, it is yet another reminder of the profound changes we have already made to our global climate and that we must let's adapt now," he added. "This is a very important and disastrous signal (...), an alert to tell humanity that we are approaching the 1.5°C limit faster than predicted," he Johan Rockström from Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) told AFP. Countries need to "quickly align their policies and financial flows" to reduce emissions and "work to reach agreement on ambitious targets". of climate finance at COP29" in Baku in December, said Stephanie Roe, climate specialist at the World Wide Fund for Nature (WWF), in response to this "climate earthquake". The current climate has already warmed by approximately 1.2°C compared to the years 1850-1900. And at the current rate of emissions, Giec estimates that the 1.5°C threshold has a one in two chance of being reached on average by 2030-2035. With an average temperature of 13.14°C, January 2024 is the warmest January on record since records began, following a record in 2023. It is 0.12°C higher than the previous record in January 2020 and with 0.70°C above normal values from 1991-2020, compared to the pre-industrial era, is 1,660°C warmer. January is the eighth month in a row for which the monthly heat record was broken, points out the European Copernicus Observatory. The month was marked by a heat wave in South America, which recorded record temperatures and devastating fires in Colombia and Chile, with dozens of deaths in the Valparaiso region. Despite cold spells and sometimes significant rainfall in some parts of the globe, exceptional improvement was seen in Spain and southern France, as well as parts of the United States, Canada, Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia.

The ocean surface is overheating, with a new January record average temperature of 20.97°C. This is the second warmest for all months combined, less than 0.01°C from the previous record set in August 2023 (20.98°C).

The year 2024 "starts with a new record month", laments Samantha Burgess, deputy head of the climate change department (C3S) at Copernicus.