GREXIT Scenarios after the "No" vote - from "soft deal" to "nuclear options"

The "no" vote in the Greek referendum seems to have brought about even more uncertainty concerning the country's future, analysts say, and they present various scenarios, from new negotiations with the international creditors and obtaining a new agreement until Greece's exit from the Eurozone, the move to a new currency and the nationalization of banks.

An alternative being considered as "plan B", is calling upon Russia and China, which have expressed their willingness to help the government in Athens.

• Stratfor: "More uncertainty concerning the future of the country and of the banking sector"

The result of the referendum is a major victory for the governing party Syriza which has asked for a negative vote, but this probably comes at a very high price for Greece, Stratfor writes.

"While prime-minister Alexis Tsipras said he would go back to the negotiating table with the creditors, most governments in the Eurozone said that they would not offer Athens better terms. More importantly, the result of the referendum will create even more uncertainty concerning the future of the country and of the banking sector", the quoted analysis states.

According to Stratfor, Greek banks need money from the ECB immediately.

It would seem that the ECB has decided not to supplement the emergency funds for the Greek banks.

"If the ECB refuses to give banks the money they need, then Greece will have two options", according to Stratfor: "The first involves cutting part of the deposits to save banks, the so-called bail-in, which has a precedent in the Greek crisis of 2013. The second option is even more drastic: returning to the drachma and recapitalizing banks by printing money".

The following step would be Greece's attempt to return to the negotiation table, but the talks are bound to be difficult because Athens is asking for a cut of the debt, a concession which is hard to accept for the countries in the Eurozone.

Stratfor says: "Debt forgiveness is unpopular in countries such as Germany or Finland, and some countries in Southern Europe, such as Spain and Portugal, reject the idea of making compromises with Greece, just a few months before their elections.

Portugal will have elections in October, and Spain in November or December, and the conservative governments in Lisbon and Madrid are concerned that making concessions to the left wing Greek government would strengthen their own left-wing opposition parties".

Analysts mention that some of the Greeks are concerned about the result of the referendum will bring the country closer to its exit from the Eurozone, at the cost of their deposits.

"So far, the Greeks are calm, but a collapse of the banking system and an exit from the monetary union would almost certainly spark protests, which would cause the government to resign", according to Stratfor.

Also, the referendum in Greece will test the health of the European financial markets. After countries in South Eastern Europe have borrowed at low interest rates in the last five years, because of the ECB's promise to intervene, after July 5th, this promise will be tested, according to Stratfor, which further says: "Ironically, the Greek crisis could lead to an even weaker Euro, which would make the exports of the Eurozone competitive".

Stratfor does not expect the international financial institutions to accept compromises soon, for fear that the referendum in Greece would create a precedent for the other members of the Eurozone (Athens has achieved the impossible, a result hailed both by national left-wing party Podemos, as well as by the National Front in France).

• Zerohedge: "Nuclear option: nationalizing banks"

It is possible the Greeks have burned every possible bridge with the Eurozone, after Sunday's referendum, Zerohedge writes.

The site quotes a Deutsche Bank analyst, who says that most likely the ECB will maintain the current level of the ELA emergency funds, at least until a political decision is made, which will put pressure on the economy in the coming days.

Zerohedge writes that since there is no official method to remove Greece from the Eurozone, the only bargaining chip of the Troika and the ECB is Greece's economic and financial collapse.

The site also suggests that Greece could issue a parallel currency.

Zerohedge also speaks about an even heavier "nuclear" option that Greece has available, as the situation escalates - nationalizing banks and then invoking the taboo of the "irreversibility" of printing the currency that it doesn't have.

"And who would "involuntarily" start something like that", the website asks, and then goes on with a quote from Euclid Tsakalotos (the Greek leader of the negotiations with the creditors), according to whom, "creditors will find them themselves in a morally indefensible position if they refuse to listen to the voice of the Greek people, especially since the IMF has validated Syriza's claim that Greece's debt can not be paid".

• Deutsche Bank: "Grexit and a new government, the most likely scenarios"

In the opinion of Deutsche Bank, the Grexit and a new deal with the creditors, under a new government, are the most likely scenarios for Greece.

The bank has presented four possible option for the bank, after the referendum.

The first is a more permissive deal, even though the likelihood of that happening is low, according to analysts.

Another scenario is a Greek default, but staying in the Eurozone due to the recapitalization of the Greek banks by the member states. In that case, the government would have to use its own sources for the fiscal needs of the country.

A third agreement is the third scenario of Deutsche Bank, in which the greater economic and political costs and the closing of the banking system lead to the government being replaced with a national union one, which would lead new negotiations.

The fourth scenario is the exit from the Eurozone.

Analysts are saying that the first three scenarios have a higher combined likelihood than the Grexit.

• Goldman Sachs is betting on a new government

Goldman Sachs Chief economist Huw Pill had estimated a "Yes" vote in Sunday' referendum, according to Business Insider.

Still, in the case of a negative vote, the Goldman Sachs analyst has devised the following scenario: "A «no» vote would give the current Government exactly what it wants and it would offer it even more political support. This is likely to be seen negatively by the markets, but it doesn't necessarily involve a Grexit. Furthermore, the economic situation would motivate Greeks to eventually vote for a new government.

Beyond these scenarios, we shouldn't miss out on the geopolitical situation and the fact that Russia and China have expressed willingness to help Greece, as they stand to gain if they had Greece as a bridgehead in Europe, and more importantly within NATO, according to Zerohedge.

Besides, yesterday, Greek prime-minister Alexis Tsipras, in the discussions with French president Francois Hollande and German Chancellor Angela Merkel, had a discussion with Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Amid Greece's financial issues, Tsipras recently visited Russia several times.

To avoid pushing Greece into the arms of Russia and China, US president Barack Obama has asked the EU to be a little more lenient with Greece. If for no other reason but the fact that NATO has a strategic military base in Greece.

Furthermore, just before the referendum, the Greek debt can not be repaid, thus bringing grist to Syriza's mill.

Yesterday, the IMF said it was ready to help Greece, even though it missed the payment of the last installment to the institution.

"The IMF has acknowledgment the referendum in Greece. We are closely monitoring the situation and we are ready to help Greece, if we are asked to do so", IMF head Christine Lagarde said.

The first step will offer a direction concerning the "life after the referendum" will be the meeting of the Eurogroup, programmed today.

The Greek media yesterday said that Merkel and Tsipras have decided that Greece will present a new "comprehensive" proposal concerning a deal.