EnglishAna Săbiescu
Romania"s gross domestic product could decrease by more than 8.6% in the second quarter of 2009 as the slowdown in the construction sector could exceed initial forecasts, according to Nicolae Alexandru Chidesciuc, Senior Economist with ING Bank Romania. To prevent this potential course of events, ING Bank believe that the construction sector needs strong recovery, which is somewhat unlikely.
The available data on the construction sector point to a much bleaker picture than expected. While the initial forecast was based on a 15% decline in the construction industry in the second quarter of the year, currently available information indicates that the construction industry plunged 24.5% in May 2009 compared to May 2008, according to the ING Bank report. The bank"s updated forecast is that the construction industry will plunge approximately 20% in Q2.
Chidesciuc further said that, if the prospect of a poor farming year was factored in, household consumption could be affected even further, because of the self consumption percentage. ING Bank estimates that Romania"s gross domestic product will recede by 7.1% this year and will not go back to positive values before the third quarter of 2010.
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