English
There are significant risks that the budget deficit could reach 8.5-9% of the GDP, in 2009, which would make unrealistic the plan for it to reach 5.9% of the GDP in 2010, by lowering spending, which means "harsh measures would be required in the first part of next year", a report by ING says.
"Considering the significant risks of the budget deficit reaching 8.5-9% of the GDP in 2009, any budget for 2010 based on cutting spending, which would cause a drop in the deficit from 7.3% to 5.9% of the GDP seems unrealistic and almost certain to be revised. The IMF may not take this scenario into consideration until the end of the year, in an attempt to give markets a positive signal. For this reason, tough measures in the beginning of 2010 are likely, if we assume that the IMF wants to meet its target of a deficit of 5.9% of the GDP", according to a report published yesterday by ING.
Analysts emphasize that Romania runs the risk of the IMF delaying the disbursement of the installments from the IMF in the Q1 2009 as well.
They said that the passing of the law of unified wages was ruled constitutional is good news, as it will lower the pressure on spending in 2010, as it freezes wages at the level of 2009, except for the minimum wage.
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