IONEL NIŢU: "The electoral campaign - another occasion to roll around in the dirt of history"

The analyst says that the national interest and the national security objectives are being cheapened through the media circus surrounding the recently disclosed undercover agent, and that the intelligence services are being unwillingly used to further other people's dirty political games.

There are two scenarios making the rounds these days in the political arena, as the presidential campaign is about to begin. Independent analyst Ionel Niţu says: "There are scenarios that could partially blow up the state, the political class and our society. It's what I earlier called the queen's gambit, but it played out differently than how I had originally expected it to.

The first scenario consists in Klaus Iohannis and/or Victor Ponta being driven out of the electoral campaign for reasons of legal compliance or failure to meet the criteria set through the law. Or at least in the engendering of discouragement among their voters. The second would be the presidential elections going through, their subsequent challenge on the grounds of the failure to meet the legal requirements, the cancellation and the resumption of the electoral process in spring. Or at least a combination of those moves, played in between the two rounds of the election.

The end goal of the first scenario would be to allow Elena Udrea to enter the second round of the elections. In the case of the second scenario, the end game is to resume the process concerning the presidential elections, with at least one candidate that the courts have invalidated, as well as 2-3 more months gained for the electoral campaign, as Traian Băsescu will leave the Cotroceni Palace on December 22nd. As for the third, which consists of a combination of factors, what matters is bringing the rivals in for negotiations".

In the opinion of analyst Ionel Niţu, Traian Băsescu will not leave Cotroceni without playing all of his cards. He will do everything in his power to support his candidate, namely Elena Udrea, in getting to the second round. Other goals of the president would be, according to the scenarios above, picking the lesser of two evils in the second round, bringing in Klaus Iohannis and Victor Ponta and getting them to sit down at the negotiations table or to cancel the elections and to restart them in a different political context, to increase the odds of his preferred candidate.

Ionel Niţu told us: "There is a lot of smoke and there are many diversions in this electoral campaign, where propaganda and populism predominate. There is a game being played on the chessboard on but it is obvious that it has several pieces. The politicians are divided, the fabric of society is torn. We are speaking about a political quagmire, in a country that is torn apart. These are the key-words for the strangest, most complex and (probably) the most important (through its effects) electoral campaign for the presidential elections of the last 25 years".

This presidential campaign is full of records. Ionel Niţu says: "We have two women running for president, which is a record for Romania, an undercover agent among the other candidates - a European record; another who candidate is allegedly incompatible, and the court obeys a request to speed up the judicial process - a European record; a candidate who is almost completely unknown (Mirel Mircea Amariţei) - an Eurasian record; one who, just one day earlier, was the head of a secret service - a Euro-Atlantic record; two of them represent the Hungarian community - a Central European record; three of them have also run for president in 2009, but none of them made into the second round - a record for the Balkan region; one of the is running for president for the fifth time in a row - a world record.

Moreover, we have every age bracket represented, from 42 to 73 years old - an Asian record. We can also add a quasi-record for Romania - 14 presidential candidates, whereas in 1996 there were 16 of them, and in the last three elections, there were 12 of them each time.

About 7.5 million Romanians have - theoretically - given their signatures for the 14 candidates, which represents about 75% of the number of voters in the first round. I expect some candidates will not even get the votes of those who (theoretically) have signed for them - 200,000 signatures of 10 million (possible) participants in the first round means that none of them will get less than below 2%. of the votes, Which we know isn't true - there a few who would not get more than 0.5%".

The analyst considers that "the worst thing, however, is the fact that the national interest and the national security objectives have been cheapened by the through the media circus surrounding the undercover agent, that the intelligence services are being unwillingly used to further other people's dirty political games. It's sad, it's a shame, the effects will be felt in time, and they will be felt by Romania, by the citizens, by the institutions of the state".

In the opinion of Ionel Niţu, Romania had the opportunity to prove that it is a civilized country through this campaign: "I think it missed that opportunity. Far too much circus, attacks, disputes; smokescreens and too much hunting for rabbits; too many checks and the queen gambit; propaganda; populism; strife; fear; arrests; the end of a regime; betrayals; changes of mind; scandals and no debates - all of them describe the longest electoral campaign. I hope we will be able to use the pieces to rebuild what is being destroyed, in an absolutely irresponsible manner, by placing the personal/political interest above the common/national one".

Ionel Niţu concludes: "If we had the patience to review (according to defined criteria and measurable ratios) the political evolution and the electoral debate, at a time when there are dangers lurking outside the borders of the country, when separatism and extremism are on the rise, when the negative effects of the economic crisis have not yet disappeared, then Romania would probably not be comparable with any of the European countries, it would not fit the analysis criteria and we would have to compare it to other countries or regions, probably in Latin America".