Major volatility in the commodity market in recent years

Commodity prices have experienced significant volatility in recent years, caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, disruptions in the global supply chain and geopolitical tensions.

A visualcapitalist.com analysis shows how 11 key commodities have evolved from 2019 to 2024 (annual dynamics), and according to it, coffee bean prices have experienced huge fluctuations in recent years, like many other agricultural commodities. This volatility has been caused, most often, by climate challenges in major exporting countries, such as Brazil and Vietnam. Brazil, which grows Arabica coffee, suffered a severe drought in 2024, which amplified fires, interrupted hydroelectric power supplies and dried up crops.

In the same year, coffee trees in Vietnam were affected by heat waves that reduce the size of the fruit containing the coffee beans. Vietnam is the world's largest supplier of Robusta coffee beans, which are commonly used for instant coffee, the cited source notes.

According to the analysis, the price of coffee beans rose by 70% in 2024, at an annual rate, by 13% in 2023, after falling by 26% in 2022. In 2021, the coffee price rose by 76%, in 2020 it fell by 1%, and in 2021 it had risen by 27%.

Also in the agricultural segment, the evolution of the price of soybeans was as follows: -23% in 2024; -15% in 2023; +14% in 2022; +1% in 2021; +40% in 2020; +7% in 2019. Sugar prices had the following dynamics: -6% in 2024; +3% in 2023; +6% in 2022; +22% in 2021; +15% in 2020; +12% in 2019. Corn prices evolved as follows: -3% in 2024; -31% in 2023; +14% in 2022; +23% in 2021; +25% in 2020; +3% in 2019.

• Gold, on the rise

Gold has been among the best-performing commodities over the past two years, after a weaker performance in the post-Covid years of 2021 and 2022. The dynamics were driven by several factors: strong demand from central banks (central banks have built up gold reserves for diversification); geopolitical tensions - global conflicts and trade wars make safe haven assets like gold more attractive; inflation concerns - gold is also seen as a hedge against inflation, further supporting demand. The yellow metal's price has evolved as follows: +26% in 2024; +15% in 2023; +0.4% in 2022; -4% in 2021; +25% in 2020; +18% in 2019.

Also on the metals market, the price of aluminum had the following trajectory: +7% in 2024; 0% in 2023; -15% in 2022; +42% in 2021; +10 in 2020; -3% in 2019. Copper evolved as follows: +3% in 2024; +2% in 2023; -14% in 2022; +26% in 2021; +26% in 2020; +4% in 2019. The price of nickel had the following dynamics: -8% in 2024; -44% in 2023; +45% in 2022; +25% in 2021; +18% in 2020; +32% in 2019. Iron ore has evolved as follows: 24% in 2024; +23% in 2023; -1% in 2022; -28% in 2021; +70% in 2020; +34% in 2019.

The price of Brent oil, also volatile, has had the following dynamics: -3% in 2024; -10% in 2023; +9% in 2022; +53% in 2021; -22% in 2020; +22% in 2019.

The price of natural gas in the US has evolved as follows: +32% in 2024; -27% in 2023; +4% in 2022; +42% in 2021; +16% in 2020; -34% in 2019.