Met Office: One of the warmest years on record is coming

The year 2025 could become one of the three warmest years ever recorded globally, according to the British agency Met Office. The estimates come after a year 2024 that could break all temperature records, exceeding for the first time the threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels (1850-1900).

According to the Met Office report, next year would record average global temperatures between 1.29 and 1.53 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, with an estimated average of 1.41 degrees Celsius. Although the El Niño phenomenon, which amplified the warming in 2023-2024, will end, temperatures will remain high. "It is interesting to note that although the tropical Pacific will enter a La Niña phase, which would normally bring cooler conditions, the forecast for 2025 points to warmer global temperatures," explained Professor Adam Scaife from the Met Office. The agency predicts that 2024 will become the warmest year on record, surpassing the record set in 2023. It is also likely that for the first time in recorded history, global temperatures will pass the symbolic threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. This prediction is consistent with recent observations from the European Copernicus programme. "Crossing the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is a milestone in climate history that should be of great concern to us," said Nick Dunstone, the lead author of the Met Office report.

• The 1.5-degree threshold and its significance

The 1.5-degree threshold is one of the main objectives of the 2015 Paris Agreement, which aims to limit global warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius and to continue efforts to keep it to 1.5 degrees. Exceeding this symbolic threshold draws attention to the urgency of global action to combat climate change.

• Gloomy outlook: "catastrophic" warming if no action is taken

Despite international commitments, the world is heading towards a global warming of 3.1 degrees Celsius by the end of the century, according to the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Even if current promises are implemented, warming could reach 2.6 degrees Celsius, far exceeding the limits set in the Paris Agreement. This trajectory threatens to intensify extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, severe droughts and torrential rains, with devastating impacts on economies and people around the world. The Met Office report highlights the need for a concerted global effort to reduce carbon emissions and adapt to new climate realities. Exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold is not just a statistic, but a clear warning about the urgency with which the climate crisis must be addressed.