NATIONAL STATISTICS INSTITUTE: Romanian economy dropped 7.4% Raiffeisen Bank: Recovery will come from abroad

Romania"s GDP continued to drop in the third quarter of 2009, (-0.7% over Q2 2009 and dropped 7.4% over Q3 2009, the first estimates of the National Statistics Institute show.

INS published a 7.1% GDP drop YOY (raw series) in Q3 2009.

Data from the National Statistics Institute paint a better picture of the expectations of analysts from Raiffeisen Bank, which estimate the GDP will rise in the fourth quarter.

The annualized economic growth rate is expected to remain negative until the second half of 2010, according to Raiffeisen analysts.

"The 2009 GDP will have a negative growth of -7%, above our previous estimates (-7.5%) and high above the IMF estimate", the bank"s report says.

The aforementioned analysts says that the economy will recover with the help of external factors - increased exports due to a recovery of the Euro zone, which will have positive effects on industrial output, as chances for a domestic recovery in the coming quarters are very slim.

The chairman of the National Prognosis Commission (CNP), Ion Ghizdeanu, estimates that Romania"s economy will move into positive territory in the first quarter of 2010 over Q4 2009, and said he wouldn"t rule out a positive or near zero evolution in Q4 2009, according to NewsIn.

Following a visit of its delegation in the beginning of the month, the IMF revised its 2009 forecast for Romania, to 7.5-8%, from its previous prediction of 8.5%, and expects a recovery in 2010, but it estimates that the GDP will only see a slight rise in 2010.