Out of too much love, both political sides devour their voters

It"s not the current political crisis that we should be concerned about, but its potential. The stakes of the current struggle are not the presidential election, but its aftermath.

We may get "lucky" and run without a government another six months. Perhaps if it wasn"t for this economic crisis, this were actually a reason to celebrate. But under the current circumstances, an extended political crisis is the last thing we need.

Politicians are fighting over one thing only: who"s going to control the next prime-minister.

Social-Democrats (PSD), Conservatives (PC), Liberals (PNL) and the Hungarian minority (UDMR) want to grab the opportunity to impose their own candidate for the position of prime-minister - Klaus Johannis before the presidential elections. They are convinced that regardless of the outcome of the presidential elections, they will be the ones to form the government.

Their approach is democratic, based on the parliamentary majority, but so is the refusal of president Traian Băsescu to accept it, as he appointed Lucian Croitoru, also democratically, to form a new government.

The positions of the two sides seem irreconcilable.

And each of them is right in its own way.

Johannis" supporters are right when they say that a Government can"t get through the Parliament without a majority. But Traian Băsescu is also right when he says that, according to the Constitution, it"s up to the president to appoint a prime-minister.

Had all this been happening in May, the conflict could have been easily solved by dissolving the Parliament and holding early elections.

But even like that, there was no guarantee this would solve the political crisis, because advance elections do not guarantee a shift in the strength of the various parliamentary factions. Quite the contrary: for years now, parliamentary elections have shown that it is extremely difficult for a single party to achieve majority, so having early presidential elections may not have prevented the current situation from occurring.

Since we"re just two months away from the presidential elections, the alternative of an advanced election is out of the question, as the Constitution forbids it.

These past few years have demonstrated that the president can"t do anything against a prime-minister in office, as long the PM has the backing of a parliamentary majority, regardless of whether it is a "transparent" majority or not.

Dismissing the prime-minister is also out of the question. The constitution clearly states that the prime-minister can not be dismissed by the president.

Thus, having Klaus Johannis run for prime-minister is unacceptable for Traian Băsescu because even after the elections, he runs the risk of having a government similar to that of former PM Tăriceanu, except with a the backing of a "transparent majority". Even if he won the elections, Traian Băsescu would find it almost impossible to shake off a government led by Johannis backed by a Parliamentary majority.

Neither PSD, nor PNL would be willing to ally themselves again with PD-L after their previous experiences. And UDMR and PC have always proved that they will side with whoever is stronger. If they were already in a coalition, UDMR and PC would no longer have any reason to jump ship, like they did in December 2004.

That is why for PSD, PNL, PC and UDMR, Klaus Johannis represents the opportunity for them to stay in power, even if Traian Băsescu wins the presidential elections.

The four parties will not risk accepting the alternative of a government led by Lucian Croitoru, backed by PD-L, even if they were tempted with half the portfolios in the government, because they could be thrown out come spring. For the four parties mentioned above, Accepting Lucian Croitoru now or any other prime minister appointed by president Băsescu simply means postponing the crisis until the beginning of 2010. Except then, having one a new term, Traian Băsescu will dissolve the Parliament and with a five year term ahead of him he could more easily persuade leaders of UDMR and PC to join him.

It"s even possible that after the elections, PSD or PNL, with new leaders, join PD-L to form a new majority. IF Traian Băsescu wins the elections, this would most likely cause Mircea Geoană and Crin Antonescu to be replaced as leaders of the PSD and PNL respectively, if their parties aren"t in the government at that time.

That is why, the stakes of the current political crisis is more post-electoral, because its effects stretch until after the presidential elections.

The two sides are not fighting over who"s going to govern Romania over the course of the next two months before the elections, but rather for the period left before the next parliamentary elections, meaning at least three years from now.

With the stakes being this big, there"s not much hope that the current crisis will end soon.

The current crisis is somehow caused by the current Constitution, because if the presidential elections were to take place together with the parliamentary elections, like they used to until 2004, then we could have hoped that the current crisis would be over right after the elections, through post-electoral negotiations. With a newly elected president and a new Parliament, negotiations would have gone differently. Under the current circumstances, things are a lot more complicated.

And we, the people, are just the tool both sides use to blackmail each other trying to achieve their goals even before the presidential elections. The concern for our pockets is just a pretense used by each party to avoid any compromise. In truth, both sides care only for their own pockets, which are far deeper and better padded than ours.

The problem is that the rest of us, who aren"t part of either side, we hardly have the supplies needed to pass the winter.

The current crisis will drive away the last voters that still have an ounce of interest, and in the end the political parties will have reconciled, but they will be left without a people to govern.