Researchers: It is still possible to prevent the disappearance of the ice sheet

Climate-related alarm signals are becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet could add more than one meter to sea-level rise if global climate goals are not met. According to a new study published in the journal Nature by an international consortium of researchers, it's still possible to prevent the disappearance of the Greenland ice sheet, provided climate warming is reversed and brought to a safer level. Glaciers and polar ice sheets are melting due to climate change driven by human activities, and the Arctic region is warming faster than the global average. The melting of the Greenland ice sheet, the second-largest in the world after Antarctica, is estimated to have contributed to over 20% of observed sea-level rise since 2002. Hundreds of millions of people living in coastal and island communities are at risk of being inundated, leading to devastating humanitarian, economic, and ecological consequences.

Using computer simulations, the new study suggests that significant ice sheet losses can be expected if global average temperatures rise by 1.7-2.3 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Such a scenario could risk reaching a "point of no return," leading to almost complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet over centuries or millennia, which could raise sea levels by seven meters, thereby reshaping the world map. If the temperature increase threshold is maintained below 1.5 degrees Celsius, it may help mitigate ice melting and sea-level rise, depending on the magnitude and duration of current global temperature increases.

According to the study's findings, the ice sheet responds so slowly to human-induced warming that reversing the current trend by reducing greenhouse gas emissions over the coming centuries could prevent its disappearance. However, temporary temperature exceedances may still lead to a peak in sea-level rise of over one meter in their simulations, explained Niklas Boers, a co-author of the study from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.

Other tipping points within the Earth system could be reached much earlier, especially concerning tropical forests and ocean currents, according to scientists. "The Greenland ice sheet is probably more resilient to short-term warming than previously believed," said Nils Bochow, a researcher at the University of Tromsø in Norway and the lead author of the study. Global temperatures have increased by approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius on average in recent years and are approaching the 1.5-degree Celsius warming threshold set by the 2015 Paris Agreement.