Andreea Arăboaei
A report by Moody"s states that Romania"s rating could drop if the foreign loan from the IMF and the European Commission is put on hold, but it could also be affirmed, if the structural reforms are rigorously and consistently followed through, and the country"s fiscal policy becomes more efficient.
Moody"s says that factors which justify the current rating include the low public debt, the integration in the EU which stimulates investments and microeconomic reorganization, as well as the support received from the IMF and the EU, which help compensate the vulnerabilities determined by the macroeconomic imbalances.
Factors that could threaten Romania"s sovereign risk rating include failure to control the budget deficit, amid the recession and shrinking access to funding, and risks concerning macroeconomic stability, originating from the deterioration of the economy"s situation, high foreign debt and the sizeable current account deficit, according to Moody"s analysts.
The foreign banks" commitment to support their subsidiaries following the foreign agreement worth 20 billion Euros, lowers the risk related to the rollover of the short term external debt and means that in the medium and long term, the banking system will come out stronger, the report states.