EnglishIn February, Romania's trade deficit reached the lowest level in the last ten years: 917,3 million lei (208.2 million Euros), down almost 1.3 billion lei (301.1 million Euros) YOY, according to the estimates made by the Romanian National Statistics Institute (INS). The statistic shows that FOB exports have reached about 17 billion lei, (3.87 billion Euros), and the CIF imports have reached 17.88 billion lei, (over 4 billion Euros).
Economic analyst Aurelian Dochia says that we shouldn't "rejoice" over the low trade deficit, because that means "low capital inflows".
He said: "The deficit needs to be treated with a certain balance. Romania has a certain characteristic - the exports are very tightly connected to the imports. We need to carefully manage the balances and the imbalances. We should not have great deficits, but they shouldn't be allowed to shrink very much either. If we get to the point where we have an surplus, we would be in a situation where we export capital, which, under the circumstances, is not advisable. We need capital inflows, which could lead to an increase in the deficit".
Dragoş Cabat, economic analyst, also explained that theoretically, when we have a low trade deficit, we are also faced with low foreign investments.
"When you have a big trade deficit, you have to finance it somehow - foreign investments, direct investments ... theoretically this is what it comes down to. On a microeconomic level, when it comes to companies, it is a very good thing for the deficit to drop, because this leads to bigger exports, or smaller imports, but for the real economy this isn't exactly a good thing. Trade deficit and foreign investment depend on one another. As long as money isn't coming into the country, you have no foreign currency, meaning you can't buy foreign products, which leads to a drop in the deficit".
In the opinion of Dragoş Cabat, a low deficit is not a problem, but a very small deficit is a negative sign for the economy. In his opinion, however, Romania's trade deficit won't fall too much, because exports are highly dependent on imports.
According to the INS estimates, in February 2013, compared to the similar month of 2012, exports have increased 10.8%, in the case of amounts expressed in lei (10% for amounts expressed in Euros), and imports have increased 2%, to amounts expressed in lei (1.3% for amounts expressed in Euros).
Compared to January 2013, exports in February 2013 increased 4% in lei, (and 4.6% in Euros), and imports increased 1.5% in lei (2% in Euros).
In the first two months of this year, FOB exports reached approximately 33 billion lei, (7.57 billion Euros), and the CIF imports have amounted to approximately 35.5 billion lei (about 8 billion Euros).
Compared to the similar period of 2012, exports have increased 9.4%, in lei (8.1% when expressed in Euros), and imports have increased 2.5%, when expressed in lei (1.3% when expressed in Euros).
During the first two months of this year, the trade deficit was 2.22 billion lei (508.4 million Euros), lower by 1.98 billion lei (461.1 million Euros) compared to the similar period of 2012.
During the reviewed period, the value of the exchanges within the EU was almost 23.5 billion lei (5.35 billion Euros) when it comes to speditions and 26.7 billion lei (around 6 billion Euros) to entries, representing 70.7% of the total exports and 75.5% of the total imports.
The remaining 29.3% of the exports and 24.5% of imports, respectively, represents the value of the trade outside the EU.
The most important products among those exported, were machinery and transportation equipment (42.4% on exports and 34.4% on imports) and other manufactured products (34.0% on exports and 29.6% on imports).
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