Scenarios for the presidential elections, just before the elections for the European Parliament

Vote attendance at the Europarliamentary elections promises to be ridiculously low, perhaps the lowest in the history of Romania (at any rate below 30%). That says a lot about the cheap and ridiculous politicking that is deprived of vision, and of projects that are relevant to society, about the silent war between the main political players, about the tabloidization of the TV channels and especially about the Romanians' growing disgust at the politicians' demagogy, which the citizens are becoming increasingly uninterested in.

In my opinion, a new, credible candidate, with notoriety, energy and charisma, perhaps untainted by the touch of cheap political wheeling and dealing, would stand a greater chance in autumn's presidential elections. Unfortunately, it would seem that we do not (yet) have such a candidate. He definitely exists, but he prefers to stay anonymous.

Since perhaps just 25-28% of the Romanians are going to show up to vote on May 25th, I don't expect the voter turnover will exceed 40-45% in November.

It would be the time for the other 55-60% of Romanians to give us a different kind of president!

I know it sounds like a pipe dream, but I've said that's what I would want.

From now on I will say what I think will happen.

• Relevant statements

The honorary president of the PSD, Ion Iliescu, supports the candidacy of Victor Ponta in the presidential elections, at least on a declarative level: "At the present time, Victor Ponta is the person among the leaders of the PSD who has the greatest exposure and who has also accumulated a certain level of expertise, even though he is a young prime minister".

Another relevant statement is the threat of by Traian Băsescu about bringing Victor Ponta "to a level" where he would be unable to become a president.

The conflict between the two has grasped the attention of the public. Băsescu will do whatever is needed to make sure that Ponta doesn't become president.

Ponta has committed to his anti-Băsescu stance, but this will not bring him the votes of the USL (60%), just those of the PSD (a little over 40%).

It is also worth noting the announcement made by Victor Ponta, concerning the Congress of the PSD where the presidential candidate of the party will be announced, but which will not nominate the candidate for the position of prime-minister, because this decision will have to be made by the governing alliance.

Also relevant are the slowdown of the drop of the PNL (14-17%), the slide of the PDL (11-14%) and of the PMP (9-11%).

PSD-UNPR-PC is in the 39-43% margin.

A few scenarios

• 1. THE RIGHT

Traian Băsescu is currently sending messages to the political stage, through his public statements.

While, when addressing the right, the president is saying:

"Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu (Forţa Civică) is ranked higher than Crin Antonescu in the polls, Elena Udrea is the only one rising, she has already exceeded Antonescu, Vasile Blaga has only half the public trust that Elena Undrea has, and Cătălin Predoiu is far behind".

when it comes to the left, he warns:

"Victor Ponta will not be president. I am going to be chipping away at him daily, I no longer have any electoral interests, but I will try to show Romanians what this man really is: a scammer. Any of the heads of the right wing political parties would be better. Ponta isn't going to win the presidential elections".

A ranking of the scenarios based on their likelihood:

• 1.1. Likely

Right wing formations are all promoting the candidates they had initially announced, at least until September-October, perhaps with small adjustments (the replacement of Predoiu, the appointment of an official candidate of the People's Movement Party - PMP: Boc and/or Udrea, perhaps even a pairing of the two).

Four candidates + 2 potential ones (CP Tăriceanu, T Meleşcanu), perhaps others too (from the Romanian Green Party, and the National Peasants' Christian and Democratic Party - PNTCD), will heavily splinter the voters of the right in the first round, with a possible (partial) rally behind the candidate of the right in the second round.

The candidate of the National Liberal Party (PNL) is the one the most likely to go to the second round.

• 1.2. Possible

Two candidates (with partners) for the right wing, either siding with Băsescu or neutral, in other words Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu-Elena Udrea and Crin Antonescu-Klaus Iohannis (or Klaus Iohannis-Vasile Blaga).

It is unclear what the PDL will do, it will most likely make an alliance with the PNL, if a team of candidates can be configured.

• 1.3. Highly unlikely

a) Just one candidate of the right, most likely Klaus Iohannis.

b) The rebuilding of the USL (the least likely scenario). The recent rejoining of the PNL by Călin Popescu is a necessary gesture (but not enough in itself) towards rebuilding the USL, in the event of a (rather likely) resignation of Crin Antonescu.

To maximize the chances of success of the right, if I were to give them an advice, I would indicate suggest pairing Isărescu and Iohannis or Iohannis and Blaga.

• 2. THE LEFT

Victor Ponta said that he would announce the name of the presidential candidate after May 25th, when it gets decided whether the USL will be restored. The prime-minister had previously stated: "If you think that I should run for president, I will of course do so". The statement (made on the occasion of the announcement of the candidates for the European Parliament) was later supplemented with "the president of Romania will not and should not be the president of the PSD, the Conservative Party, of the UNPR or the PPDD".

Essentially, he has made such contradictory statements, that he could make any decision.

A ranking of the scenarios on their likelihood:

• 2.1. Likely

The more the votes of the rights are divided, the more the alliance of the left will be tempted to take its 2 candidates (for example Oprescu, Tăriceanu; or Oprescu, Geoană or any one of them together with Ponta) to the final round. The PSD and Ponta would no longer need to worry about who would succeed Băsescu.

Rather risky, however, the signal that such a scenario is being considered will be given by the Congress of the PSD.

If the Congress gets held in June, then the following scenario will become more likely - a single official candidate of the left (see 2.2.).

If the Congress of the PSD gets postponed until autumn, then that means that this scenario (2.1.) is being considered (most likely there will be one or two unofficial candidates even starting in June). I am referring here to Oprescu and Tăriceanu, who would draw votes from voters outside the pool of the PSD-UNPR-PC alliance.

At any rate, up until now, the strategy of the PSD has consisted in dropping some names (Isărescu, Arafat, Oprescu, Maior, Tăriceanu and only more recently, Ponta) as possible candidates to test the reaction of the public opinion. Of all of them, Oprescu is shaping up like an unofficial candidate of the left, especially if Ponta decides not to run for president.

• 2.2. Possible

With two powerful candidates of the right (for example. PNL+PDL = 25-27%, the pro-Băsescu right wing parties = 14-16%), the left will be forced to choose one official candidate.

The problem that Ponta will have to deal with is nominating the pair (i.e. his successor), to allow them to gather the 8-10% votes needed to succeed in the final round (each of them with 40-45%, perhaps a few percentage points more votes for the right).

In theory, the UDMR (who have 5-6%), The Dan Diaconescu People's Party (PPDD) (which can be easily co-opted by the left) and the Romania Mare - Party (PRM) (which is clearly against Ponta) could make the difference. In reality, the electorate of the UDMR (in the likely absence of directives from its leaders) will vote "according to their conscience", and the votes of the PPDD will cancel out those of the PRM.

Therefore, for each of the two finalists, it is vital to attract votes from the other's pool of voters.

That is why Ponta is sticking to his pro-USL message, betting on attracting the voters of that portion of the electorate of the PNL that supports the USL (which are by default against Băsescu).

• 2.3. Highly unlikely

a) If the left opts to have one candidate, that is going to be Ponta. I think it is highly unlikely, because it looks like increasingly difficult for the left to agree on a single candidate, and not because it is unlikely that Ponta would run.

b) The rebuilding of the USL could bring about a new team made up of Ponta and the new leader of the PNL (perhaps with the roles reversed, i.e. Ponta running for the presidential elections). Even though it is the least likely, this scenario would have the highest likelihood of success in the final round of the presidential elections.

On the last two alternatives (2.2 and 2.3), except for the one where USL gets restored (b), the possible tandems for Victor Ponta are the ones with: M. Isărescu, GC Maior, D Constantin, V Blaga.

I would not permanently rule put the scenario with Ponta as president and Iohannis as prime-minister (which was even mentioned by Antonescu once), but the rebuilding of the USL seems like a failed project. It depends on what will happen with the PNL after May 25th.

I find it relevant that PNL leader Crin Antonescu was saying on May 7th that Victor Ponta has long considered the idea of Isărescu being the future president of Romania.

I think that Isărescu could accept the position of prime-minister, if he were certain that Ponta would win the election. Furthermore, Isărescu as future prime-minister could also eliminate the risk of disagreements within the PSD-UNPR-PC alliance when it comes to nominating the future prime-minister. The alternative involving George Maior should not be disregarded either.

What is certain is that Victor Ponta is avoiding making a decision on the future prime minister and will postpone announcing a name until after the second round of the presidential elections.

Therefore, I think that by the end of the year we will have Ponta as president, and we will have as prime minister a personality that is not an active member of any of the parties in the governing alliance.

To maximize the chances of the left, if I could give an advice, I would propose the pairing between Ponta and Iohannis or Ponta and Isărescu.

But I am still waiting for that providential candidate, that is politically unsoiled, who has a vision that would cause those silent, anonymous citizens, who have decided not to vote (55-60%), to leave their homes and come to the ballot boxes, a candidate that would remove Romania from the cesspool of history and the obscurity it seems to have sunk in for years ago.