Should The Exchange Rate Or The Government Collapse?

Izabela Sîrbu (Tradus de Andrei Năstase)
Ziarul BURSA #English Section / 13 octombrie 2009

The tense political situation in Romania is turning out to be the worst enemy of the country"s ailing currency, international analysts believe, as the leu is no longer capable to withstand the euro"s advance.

Lars Christensen, Chief Analyst of Danske Bank, told BURSA that, in his opinion, the Romanian currency would continue to lose ground to the euro in the near future, as a result of the ongoing political turmoil. "The political situation is making investors nervous," Christensen said, adding that foreign investors were still interested in Romania, but were waiting for more stability.

"The macroeconomic status is still difficult. Investors are not only interested in how attractive the country is, but also in how politically stable it is," Christensen explained.

On the first day of the week, the RON weakened even more, and closed at 4.284 RON/EUR. In Christensen"s opinion, Romania"s currency will only confront the highest risks yet in the final months of the year. "The only ones who benefit from a stronger euro are exporters, whose contracts are denominated in foreign currency," Christensen explained.

The RON has lost 2.14 per cent to the euro since the ruling coalition broke up and ministers of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) left the Government. The current exchange rate has gone back to the 4.28 - 4.29 RON/EUR logged in March 2009.

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