The Cold War is Knocking: Plans to Deploy Ballistic Missiles in Germany and Russia

The reemergence of the Cold War in Europe seems a close alternative, if we consider recent statements regarding the gradual deployment by the US of medium and long-range missiles in Germany, starting in 2026, as decided at the NATO Summit in in Washington from July 9-11. Although the location where the American long-range missiles will be located and where the production capacity for the Franco-German-Italian-Polish partnership of medium-range missiles will be built, it is certain that the respective program would was to be implemented as a reaction to the intention of the Russian Federation to install an Iskander missile system in the Kaliningrad area, Boris Pistorius, the German Minister of Defense, said at the end of last week.

Russian military experts told the daily Izvestia that the missiles that will be placed on German territory are part of the conventional weapons systems and include the Typhon and Dark Eagle systems. According to the cited source, the Typhon mobile missile system can use SM-6 universal missiles, which have both air-to-air and surface-to-surface strike capabilities. Their autonomy is up to 450 kilometers, and in the latest version it is up to 700 kilometers. The system can use Tomahawk cruise missiles with a range of up to 1,800 kilometers. Practically, Tomahawk missiles are the only ones that can reach from Berlin to Moscow, the distance between the two European capitals being 1,500 kilometers, Russian military experts also claim. But they say that this distance can be covered by subsonic Tomahawks in about eight hours to deliver a high-precision strike, too long compared to Kaliningrad's Iskander missiles that can reach Berlin in just 8 minutes.

The cited source states that, unlike Tomahawk missiles, SM-6s are a more direct threat to the security of the Russian Federation, as they can quickly reach the Kaliningrad region. Izvestia also reports that the Dark Eagle missile system is equipped with the LRHW hypersonic missile, which uses a complex that is still in testing but will be deployed by 2026. The missile has a range of 2,770 kilometers and reaches five times the speed of sound, Russian military experts told Izvestia. According to them, LRHW missiles fired from the Berlin area can hit targets in the Moscow region within 14 minutes of launch and are difficult to counter by Russian air and missile defense systems due to their hypersonic drive, which allows them to maneuver at cruise speed in both heading and altitude.

Regarding Moscow's response to the future deployment of American missiles on the territory of Germany, the cited source mentions that it is possible to increase the number of 9K720 Iskander-M complex missile systems with a flight range of up to 500 kilometers (9M723 ballistic missiles and cruise ship 9M728), as well as the deployment of new complexes towards the western borders of the Russian Federation, which would include the creation of new systems equipped with a new type of ballistic missile with a range of up to 1000 kilometers or more. This is possible after President Vladimir Putin allowed production of short- and medium-range missiles to begin in early July. According to Russian military experts, the respective missile systems would be located in the Voronezh, Smolensk and Moscow regions, with medium-range missiles able to travel a distance between 1,000 and 5,500 kilometers.

In addition to Russia's response solutions cited by Izvestia, Dmitri Stefanovich, an expert at the Center for International Security within the National Research Institute of the World Economy and International Relations (IMEMO RAS), stated in an article published in the Russian daily Kommersant that it is a ground-based version of the Kalibr cruise missile, which was also used in the Ukraine war, may also be made, or a medium-range land-based hypersonic missile system may be produced, which may be based on the Zircon hypersonic missile or a modernized version of the aeroballistic missile from the Iskander-M complex.

In contrast to the military experts cited by Izvestia, Dmitri Stefanovich claims that, given the strategic nature of the American weapons that will be deployed in Europe, taking into account their range and the fact that the authorities in Moscow consider that all key decisions of NATO are taken by the Presidential Administration in Washington, it is possible that the systems that will be deployed by the Russian Federation will put a greater emphasis on "targeting" the United States.

Dmitri Stefanovich states: "This can be done in a asymmetrically way, as already announced and even partially demonstrated: for example, by patrolling, off the coast of the United States, Russian submarines equipped with these hypersonic weapons. But there could be another retro option with the deployment of Pioneer-like "intermediate-range" missiles in the Far East, which formally does not go beyond the framework of the Strategic Offensive Arms Treaty (START) which is still in force, although the Federation The Russian suspended her participation in February 2023. While this will likely be less of a concern in 2026, it's probably not something to get too excited about. Another variable is the extent of the development and deployment of medium-range missiles by the US's European and Asian allies, but we will most likely see a fairly rapid horizontal and vertical spread of these systems and increased risks of conflict escalation. At first, the pace may be very modest, but if current trends continue, a full-fledged arms race is almost inevitable."

However, Russian experts believe that the outcome of the American presidential elections in November will play an important role in this whole discussion. A takeover of the US administration by Donald Trump could lead to the reversal of measures ordered by the Biden administration, including the cancellation of the deployment of US medium- and long-range missiles in Germany.