The crash?

MAKE (Translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
Ziarul BURSA #English Section / 6 iulie 2012

The crash?

The speed at which the USL is dealing blows to Băsescu is not just part of the technique for taking over power, but also signals a sense of urgency, which is no longer discernable through the dust kicked up by the movements of the armies.

It's certain that if you don't deal a knockout blow, then you need to overwhelm your opponent, by constantly attacking him, to keep him from getting his bearings back.

Had the USL stopped just to sending Ponta to Brussels instead of Băsescu, then the plagiarism issue would have destroyed the usurping Prime Minister.

After the simultaneous replacement of the heads of the Senate and the of the Chamber of Deputies, preceded by the maneuvers against the Official Gazette, the Ombudsman, the Constitutional Court, today, the issue of plagiarism has become ridiculous.

This is an attack technique.

Just as you've finished making out the purpose of one blow and consequences of one blow, the next one is already coming, and you're already two or three moves behind.

Having some training in analyzing financial crashes, I've learned that the thefts do not take place before the public scandal sparked by the collapse; instead, they take place afterwards, meaning the scandal conceals the theft taking place in the present, by keeping everyone focused on the past.

By extending that principle to politics, I am afraid that USL is getting ready to take over power, because it has found out about the imminence of our financial and economic collapse, a fact which president Traian Băsescu was probably aware of when he appointed Victor Ponta as Prime Minister.

Băsescu got caught in the trap he laid for Ponta.

London's City yesterday speculated on the Leu, weakening it against the Euro, from 4.4534 lei, to a high of 4.4792 (the few interventions of the NBR strengthened the currency, but at the cost of reducing the foreign currency reserves, which couldn't have come at a worse time).

Apparently our banking system is going through hard times, increasingly resorting to the National Bank, which a growing number of voices claim has printed money (apparently, about 60 billion lei over the last three years) and which lends tens of billions of lei every week to banks through "repo" operations (without doing any "reverse repos", which suggests that it is simply giving banks free money).

The recent insolvency of "Hidroelectrica" has disastrous consequences on the fragile banking system ("it could bring a bank to its knees", Marinel Burduja, who until recently was a vice-president of Raiffeisen Bank, said in an interview with BURSA), forced to set up provisions for supplemental reserves, in case it won't be able to recoup the hundreds of millions of Euros it lent to the company.

On principle, the economic and financial situation of "Hidroelectrica" is similar to that of other state owned companies included on the list set up by the IMF for privatization, representing a likely reason for the recent cut of the sovereign rating by Moody's, in spite of the encouraging statements of the IMF and the World Bank, who yesterday said they were pleased with us and with the insurance provided by Victor Ponta that he would honor the commitments made to the international financial institutions (one explanation would be that they are our creditors and that they want to get their money back, so they will do anything to keep our CDSs - the cost of insurance against our sovereign default - as low as possible).

Now that we got to this, let's reevaluate the "ultimatum" which Băsescu gave two days before:

"... the political actions of the government, over the last few weeks, of the Prime Minister, and of the parliamentary majority will have extremely severe economic consequences for Romania and the Romanian population."

He doesn't say "they might have", he says "they will have".

The man is certain.

I propose we take him seriously.

In other words, the newcomers are getting ready to take over power, to control everything, before the Romanian crash comes, so that they have all the key positions taken when the collapse comes.

It is a struggle to become the reigning lords over the disaster.

And once they're done, they will say: "You see what happened because of Băsescu?"

And they won't be wrong at all.

Based on the logic of crashes, the suspension of Băsescu and the disregard of the rules of democracy, will become some extremely ridiculous topics, compared to the economic disaster which we will be living in, just like the plagiarism charges have become a ridiculous topic.

Băsescu also says:

"The end goal of the actions of the parliamentary majority led by Mr. Victor Ponta, Crin Antonescu, Daniel Constantin, Gabriel Oprea and Kelemen Hunor is to gain control the courts. The suspension of the president is just a phase."

I don't know what that means, but I can assume, again by using the logic of crashes, that it is only then that the theft will take place.

Such as, for instance, Dan Voiculescu, whose hidden (possible) reason for resigning from his position of senator may be to change the venue of his trial in which he is charged with the illegal acquisition of some plots of land, and who won't have anything to fear.

By the way: even though the strong actions of the USL undoubtedly come from Ion Iliescu, there are some rumors that it is Dan Voiculescu who is guiding them.

But let's not give him undeserved credit - there are many more like him, spread out across all of the factions...

Get ready!

I hope to God I am wrong!

The chicken or the egg?

In cases like this, it is never possible to distinguish the cause and effect, like a dealer from our currency market is trying to convince us, quoted by Mediafax, in a statement we include below:

"Some brokers from London have begun taking positions based on the depreciation of the leu after everything that happened yesterday on the Romanian political scene. It is clear that there is political instability, and judging from the manner in which the heads of the two houses of the Parliament were removed, it was clearly visible that the USL and the other parties which support it do not honor the Constitution. Such things only increase the risk aversion of foreign players, who, at times like these, no longer see the leu as an emerging currency, but rather as a high risk one, and the only position they can take is to bet on the depreciation of the leu".

But the failure to honor the Constitution by the political power may stem from the fact that the stability of the currency and of the economy is only on the surface, so we can't know which came first - the chicken or the egg?

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