The electoral campaign is beginning in Washington: The Romanians are coming (again)!

A good starting point in analyzing the current domestic politics is the visit of president Iohannis to the United States, which will take place between June 4th and June 10th. It is important not just from the angle of strengthening the relationship between Romania and the US, but also as a political victory in a future electoral campaign.

Political analysts will present the visit as a victory of Romanian diplomacy, amid the cooling of the relations between the US and its main Western European allies, essentially a recalibration of the American interests, with Eastern Europe as an operations base. It is to be expected that president Trump will reiterate the importance of the relationship with Romania, even though he may not view it as strategically as his predecessors, and to remind of our country's obligations when it comes to Europe's common defense. It is just as likely that we hear how the US is more reliant on countries such as Romania or Poland and less on Germany, France or Great Britain. Even though he is not Kissinger, Donald Trump will do his best to assure us of the interest that the US has for Romania, without making too overt promises, in that regard.

From a certain point of view, it is precisely because of Donald Trump that we will see exactly how important Romania is to the US. It is true that it may be a simplistic look, but it will elucidate the actual situation of our importance from the Republicans' point of view, other than as a playground for the president's son. We remind that on May 16th, Donald Trump Jr. came to Romania for a hunting trip.

Donald Trump, an unpopular president, with domestic political problems, accusations of high level corruptions and alleged ties to Russia is meeting Klaus Iohannis, after a first good contact at the meeting of the NATO leaders on May 25th. The event is also important from a political perspective. In January, Trump already met Liviu Dragnea, the president of the Chamber of Deputies and the leader of the biggest Romanian political party. It was an unexpected PR win for the president of the PSD, who used the visit to strengthen his position within the party, as well as his public image.

From a political perspective, therefore, the visit of Mr. Iohannis in the US marks the beginning of the electoral campaign for the Presidency. A lot of will depend on how he is going to be treated over there. In an official style, perhaps slower, more specific to Transylvanians, the Romanian president is doing what Liviu Dragnea gracefully achieved more than four months ago. Slowly, step by step, as was the motto of its campaign, Romania's president scores an official point, as he needs a major plus or a significant victory, as far as bilateral relations are concerned, in order to win this public perception image. The Romanian leader can not just mark their visit as such, the fact that he has set foot in the Oval Office, he needs to get something public and noteworthy from his American peer. It is unclear, however, what that will be - or if he will get anything!

The petition that Mr. Iohannis brings with him is a bit more significant than the issues on the bilateral agenda between the two countries. With diplomatic relations that began 137 years ago, with a bilateral trade in which Romania has a surplus and with an excellent cooperation in terms of the fight against corruption, the major topics would focus on Romania's role in the region anyway. In that regard, Mr. Iohannis doesn't have much to offer, but the presence of the missile shield in Deveselu and Romania's strategic positioning can represent points of interest, if the American president understands their importance. Otherwise, the unusual nature of the current American president almost invites a lack of interest for the core issues of Romanian society, with the fight against corruption as the main element, as long as the military interests are defended (and we don't have to pay for them).

Then, there is the ghost of elections looming, a matter on which Mr. Iohannis has not expressed any opinion on the second term. On the other hand, through his visit, Mr. Dragnea has essentially confirmed his intentions. A more cynical observer could say that he world is changing and that the fight against corruption is no longer carrying the same importance for our strategic partners, as long as Mr. Dragnea sat at the same table as president. What potential offer Romania may get in return, if applicable, during this visit, remains to be seen, but without any clear statements from the US president concerning the fight against corruption, we are still under the power of Mr. Dragnea.

There is this reflex among Romanian politicians who think, perhaps from the custom of Romanian medieval rulers, that a protocol visit before a candidacy or appointment, to see the major leaders of the world, bodes well for their future plans. Even though Mr. Iohannis doesn't seem to follow that custom, and sees his visit more as an obligation as a head of state, it needs to be mentioned that his lack of decision concerning a new mandate is causing more problems for the Romanian opposition. It is his indecision which has thrown two weak leaders in the fight for the leadership of the PNL, which marginalized Dacian Cioloş (aside from his own indecision on the matter) and which, to a certain degree, has forced Nicuşor Dan to resign from the USR. We may be talking about the strengthening of the position of Mr. Iohannis in his race for the presidency, in which case his entire image of a small town politician, unaccustomed to politics in Bucharest will disappear - in fact, we may even look at the visit in the US in a new light.

With leaders of the highest level accused of corruption, with a fragmented and fratricidal opposition and constantly pressured by Russia, the two leaders may even find major points of common interest. The lack of patience and the businessman spirit of Mr. Trump could find, in the apparent slavishness of Mr. Iohannis (which actually masks the aforementioned political pragmatism), a good partner for or dialogue It is just as possible, however, that the two leaders will just shake hands, discuss trivial issues and make dry statements, and nothing more. At any rate, it is very unlikely that Romania will gain anything from the visit of Mr. Iohannis in the US.