The seven battles of the political war

I will review the seven battles I have uncovered as part of the political war which precedes the Referendum.

The USL is leaving me with the impression that they are losing ground, by making one mistake after the other, which it could have avoided if the experienced politicians which the PSD and the PNL have among their members.

In my opinion, the only real support for the supporters of the USL came from Liviu Dragnea, the secretary general of the PSD, who did very well on Friday night, in the "Vorbe Grele" ("Serious talk") show, by appearing calm, smiling, firm and radiating confidence.

Dragnea looks like a credible opponent to Băsescu.

The rest of his faction, fat chance...

A. All of the advisors of Băsescu are on holiday

Crin Antonescu said that 75% of the employees of the presidential administration are on holiday.

In reality, it's only the advisers of the suspended president who did so, who went on holiday by default, once the president was suspended.

Hence we feel as if the interim president is surrounded, in his job, by secretaries, maids and drivers, because he used to complain before about the defeatism of his party colleagues (Antonescu said he was only one who fought against Băsescu, together with two or three people, and that the others stood in hiding).

The situation suggests how much, we the citizens matter for the political warriors: it is true that the president makes up his own team of advisers, but theoretically their advice is intended to help him serve us better, not to make him feel loved.

Having principles is tough...

B. The slip down the slippery slope of crudeness

Traian Băsescu

The suspended president has initiated the slide towards insults:

- "We are faced with an ongoing coup d'etat. The clown in Cotroceni (ed. note: Crin Antonescu) tried to dismantle the country's security structures. For that he will undoubtedly answer before the law, him, as well as the hosts of this coup. I hope the Romanians understand what is happening: their country is being sold by a clique of bastards".

- "Look at how many lackeys Dan Voiculescu has over there, who do nothing but spread lies all day long, he pays people to fight against the national interest. One of the reasons why I spoke about these threats to the national security due to mass media was because of what the Intact media trust is doing.

That's because when you have such a media force which spreads disinformation, one needs to realize that when the former spreads lies from dawn till dusk, with < < Antena 1 > >, < < Antena 2 > > and < < Antena 3 > > and with < < Jurnalul Naţional > >, the population is bound to become prone to manipulation and ends up believing what that < Clever Walrus >, that guy, what's-his-name, Chiriac, that what I call him, the clever walrus, Ghidea, that former priest, he was a pastor, Gâlmea, Gâdea, and there are some others, like Radu Tudor, hope I got his name right, yes? So these people do nothing but spread lies all day long".

Present in a show at Digi 24, the talkshow host told Băsescu that the political dialog has degenerated: "You called Mr. Ponta a monkey". "That's what he is and I am not taking anything back",

Băsescu said.

Oblivious, the leaders of the USL fell into the trap of crude language, in a misguided attempt to teach Băsescu a lesson.

Crin Antonescu

"Traian Băsescu is obviously a political wreck. It's visible from his attitude, his discourses, from the way he looks, through his behavior and in the end, the stake of this referendum which only a few days separate us from is to prevent Romania from becoming a wreck itself".

Victor Ponta

- "I have a duty towards you, the ones who supported me on my way to this important position, to tell you why we need to vote "Yes'. The very short version: because Băsescu is a mobster, a liar and a bastard. That is the simplified story, that even Traian Băsescu understands".

- "This referendum puts the life and the freedom of this bastard at stake."

The leaders of the USL are wrong, for two reasons:

1) Because they allow the level of civilization of the speech to generate, therefore confirming the slogan "PDL, USL, same garbage";

2) Because they don't have his expertise when it comes to insults, and thus they accept a battle where they don't have the upper hand.

The insults uttered by Băsescu still have a touch of humor: the "clever walrus" kind of fits Bogdan Chirieac, who, as we recall, was the object of a communiqué of the Romanian Press Club, challenging his function of journalist, just like it did Sorin Roşca Stănescu; "Gâlmea" (ed. note: approximate translation : "Lumpy") is a funny nickname, for the man about whom I myself wrote that he "makes himself look ridiculous every time he shows up on TV"; the "clown" is derogatory, and in the case of Ponta, any graphic artist won't have to work too hard to turn out a chimp caricature with his face.

Băsescu is a mediocre at insults when it comes to Vadim Tudor (Vadim is a master of insults).

But the leaders of the USL just come across as angry: there is nothing clever about calling someone a "wreck" and a "mobster".

When acting so angry, it is deplorable that Antonescu refers to the "look" of Băsescu as a "political wreck" (why? because he has a lazy eye or because he is bald?!), especially when it was only ten days ago that he was saying that Băsescu is "a powerful man".

It is worth remembering, however, that Băsescu started it.

He is the one who initiated the descent into crudeness, (which puts him once again at ease), leading to the awful, reckless splash invectives from the leaders of the USL, a scandal which increases the anger among the citizens, pushing it past the threshold of non-violence.

Once again, we are being used as cannon fodder in a war which is theirs: the war for power.

C. The political packaging: sovereignty versus Europeanism

Paradoxically, Traian Băsescu apparently has the backing of the United States of America, and of the United States of Europe as well (I am obviously being ironically metaphoric about the latter), and the USL is being severely criticized by the European Union.

Even though Crin Antonescu reaffirmed the sovereignty of Romania, which is something that resonates with many people, myself included - he did it in a kind of a knee-jerk manner, at a time when it is in his interest to support the notion of sovereignty (to prevent any foreign interference at a time when he is interested in gaining full control) and therefore has every chance of compromising that notion.

In contrast, Traian Băsescu says that the actions of the USL set the country's image several steps backwards (which is something we all suspect) and that he is the one who can patch it back together.

The situation is amazing, because two young politicians - Antonescu and Ponta - look retrograde compared to the generalized pro-European stance of Romanians (repeatedly demonstrated by polls), whereas Băsescu, far more experienced, belonging to a different generation, not only supports our EU membership, but he also has its visible backing.

The manner in which Băsescu "markets" himself is more conformist and makes him "stand out".

On the other hand, the haughtily clamored sovereignty suggests the beginning of isolation and the unavoidable leaning towards the East...

D. Plagiarism, means that Ponta has been compromised

Two academic instances have clearly stated that Victor Ponta's PhD thesis was plagiarized, and the third court came to the conclusion that he didn't plagiarize, invoking... the initial opinion of the commission which granted him the title of PhD.

You'd have to be extremely biased not to believe that he plagiarized.

Prime Minister Ponta discredited himself in two ways: in claiming that he plagiarized and when he refused to hand in his resignation.

Apparently Victor Ponta did not want this action of taking over power by a full out war, and that he was pressured into it by his partners in the USL (remember the virulent attacks at Antena 3, against Ponta, when he praised prime minister Mihai Răzvan Ungureanu), he was unable to go back and he now regrets getting involved into it.

By contrast, Romania's general prosecutor, Laura Codruţa Kovesi caught Mugur Ciuvică, who had accused her of plagiarism in her PhD degree, wrong footed: "The people who claim I plagiarized their work actually cited me in their book with all these articles I previously wrote".

Ciuvică did not investigate carefully enough to realize that Laura Lascu, whom he quoted in a work in which he was accusing the Codruţa Kovesi of plagiarizing the former, was in fact her own maiden name.

E. The third scenario - Băsescu resigns

In a prior article ("The blitzkrieg is losing steam", BURSA, 18.07.2012), I enumerated the potential near future scenarios, coming to two main possibilities, (with several ramifications branching out of them), -1. the referendum would only be valid as long as 50% plus one of the voters participated in the referendum and 2. Without the quorum requirement, which was eliminated in the interim, at the pressure of the international community.

I hereby reproduce the two ramifications I predicted for the first alternative:

a) the quorum is met (in practice this isn't possible); Băsescu is dismissed; the voter turnout will be challenged, international observers note the fraud; we get seriously compromised as a country ruled by the law.

b) the quorum isn't met; Băsescu returns to the Cotroceni palace, but he will become politically irrelevant, due to the absence of being legitimized through the vote of the population, and gains the right to continue his mandate, through negotiations; the USL begs Antonescu not to resign and he doesn't; both sides are weakened, Romania is compromised internationally; the USL wins this autumn's elections, with a far weaker score than if it hadn't initiated the "blitzkrieg".

The scenario of the quorum being met and the vote being in favor of Băsescu is impossible, and he knows it.

The biggest achievement for the president would be I the quorum isn't met, but he doesn't lose by a considerable gap; the suspended president would get the highest success if the quorum isn't met, but nevertheless he doesn't lose by a huge gap.

It's like landing in a fixed spot in a parachuting contest.

If he loses in terms of percentage (but the Referendum is invalidated), then we may see three chain resignations: Antonescu withdraws from politics (like I have assumed, he will be asked to stay and he will, because the position of museographer in Tulcea, which he used to hold will be no longer vacant by then); Victor Ponta will resign from his position of prime minister, claiming that he can't cohabitate with Băsescu; Băsescu will resign and prepare the early elections.

F. The scandal concerning Băsescu's hotline to the secret services - another fizzle

Another scandal, the one concerning the hotline of the president to the secret services, which some of our readers were hoping would discredit Băsescu.

The interim president was initially saying that he had reached a "gentleman's agreement" with the suspended president, and that he would grant him the phone which the secret services had installed for him, only to later say, in a hesitating tone, that "the law is the law" and that he would no longer allow Băsescu access to it.

In actuality, the law has a gap in that regard, and is in need of interpretation.

The entire issue is bogus.

The phone line in question is merely secure and connects Băsescu to certain institutions directly, which he could get in touch with directly, as long as he has people within who are still loyal to him.

On the other hand, if he had been allowed to use that phone, his conversations could have been watched by simply listing the calls he made.

This will no longer be possible, because no wiretapping warrant exists for Băsescu.

G. The denigration of the country - the intimidation of the journalists

Eugen Nicolaescu, the president of PNL Bucharest, said that a complaint has been filed against 15 important members of the PDL, including Traian Băsescu, for the "denigration of the country":

"This is the criminal complaint which the USL, through its parliamentary groups of the Chamber of Deputies, has filed today, with the no. 13098 at the PICCJ, requesting the beginning of the prosecution of 15 individuals: Traian Băsescu, Emil Boc, Monica Macovei, Cristian Preda, M.R. Ungureanu, Vasile Blaga, Sever Voinescu, Cezar Preda, Cristian Boureanu, Anca Boagiu, Raluca Turcan, Nicuşor Păduraru, Ioan Oltean, Sebastian Lăzăroiu, Andreea Paul".

This is not just one mistake.

It is an entire bunch of them.

The officials of the EU have repeatedly expressed their indignation at the fact that the leaders of the USL have accused them of having built their opinion towards the action of the USL to take power in Romania, based on information manipulated by the side of Băsescu; the complaint of Nicolaescu reinforces that insult, as if the people of the USL are either deaf, or monomaniacal, once again eroding their own credibility.

ActiveWatch has self-denounced for the same offense, and seized the opportunity to once again ask for the elimination of article 168 of the Criminal Code, concerning defamation, stating that "the presence of this article is a constant threat to freedom of expression" (and ironically for the current position of Mugur Ciuvică, whom I truly like; ActiveWatch reminded that the government of Adrian Năstase had Ciuvică arrested and lifted right from the street - how the hell does Ciuvică get himself in these kinds of situations?!).

As a journalist, when I see that an academic court is disbanded by the government, simply to prevent it from declaring that the prime-minister is a plagiarist, I cringe.

When I see that the freedom of expression of the members of the former government is being curtailed, I get scared.

I feel like I am being intimidated.

"Antena1", "Antena2", "Antena3", "Jurnalul Naţional" and "Cotidianul" are not being intimidated.

It is a criterion which allows you to distinguish those who are journalists from those who aren't.

But it's not the only one...