TYLER COWEN: Greece will run out of money within a year at most

• "The introduction of the Euro was probably not a good idea since the beginning, but the failure of the European currency does not amount to the failure of the EU"

Greece's money will be depleted within a year at most, reputed economist Tyler Cowen said. The difficult economic conditions that Greece is going through are causing the population to place its money outside the country and are lowering the state budget receipts, until the authorities will no longer have the money to pay the wages of the employees in the public sector and the pensions, he said. When that happens, the state will issue cheques instead of Euros, cheques which will be quite difficult to convert into the European currency and will begin being traded just like a currency, thus becoming Greece's "new drachma", according to the economics professor.

The next country to go through this process is Portugal, Tyler Cowen considers. Concerning Spain and Italy, he said that since they are richer than Greece and Portugal, they may survive in the Eurozone, but he said that he was being skeptical on the subject. All of the economists to whom he talked about the situation in the Eurozone are predicting a collapse, but they disagree on the number of countries which will be hit by the crisis, Tyler Cowen said. The most pessimistic even expect France to be affected, but Cowen feels that it will succeed in avoiding the crisis, given the size of its economy, as well as the ability it has shown throughout its history in overcoming some of the most difficult situations.

The size of the problem which currently exists in the Eurozone is demonstrated by the failure of the monetary issues of the European Central Bank (ECB), of 1,000 billion Euros, of December and February, to solve it, the economist considers. "When 1,000 billion are only good at postponing the problem for three or four months, what does that say about that problem?", Tyler Cowen asked rhetorically.

If Greece were to exit the Eurozone, and its situation improved, this would encourage other troubled countries to leave the monetary union, he said. The failure of the single currency should not be mistaken with the failure of the European Union, the professor warns. "The European construction is probably the most successful in the history of humanity, and there is no reason why it should be determined by the failure of the Euro, whose introduction may not have been a good idea since the beginning", Tyler Cowen considers.

He expressed his pessimism at the economic evolution over the next five years, which he expects will be characterized by stagnation on a global level, as the developed countries will be faced with a tepid or even npn-existent economic growth, and the great emerging economies have also cut their growth forecasts. For Europe, the biggest challenge is not the current difficult economic context, but the reduction of its population, accompanied with the aging trend, which will pressure the pension and social aid system, the economist says.

However, Tyler Cowen has an optimistic view when it comes to the next 20 years, during which time we will see the world being revolutionized by technology.

Tyler Cowen is a professor of economics at the George Mason University of the United States of America. Last year, he was included among the Top 100 Global Thinkers by the Foreign Policy magazine. Also last year, Bloomberg Business Week appointed him "The most popular economist in America". The Economist considers him one of the most influential economists of the last decade, and his blog, called The Marginal Revolution, is ranked third among the top best 25 financial blogs, drafted by Times magazine.