WHEELINGS AND DEALINGS WITH AMERICANS Speculating about Băsescu's speculations

The issue of speculation on the stock of "Roşia Montană Gold Corporation" on the Toronto Stock Exchange is five years old, even though the issue of large-scale scams is more than 125 years old; sometime around 2007, Allen Hill, the president of "Gabriel Resources" and of the subsidiary of "Roşia Montană Gold Corporation" (RMGC), countered the objections made by the Romanian branch of the Soros foundation, concerning the harmfulness (cultural as well as ecological) of the mining project, saying that George Soros was an important shareholder of Newmont Mining (author's note: a company from Denver in which Soros became a shareholder in 1993), which at the time owned 19% of Gabriel Resources.

Soros replied that the Foundation was independent and that he wasn't personally involved, either directly or indirectly in the Roşia Montană, business, a statement which might seem surprising if we didn't accept that in business, (just like on the stock market), ownership can change on the very same day the statement was made, only to revert two days later, so the assertion that he has no interest in that business can briefly become true, even though essentially inaccurate.

Because later (last year), the screen of the Toronto Stock Exchange displayed successive trades by Soros - both acquisitions and sales of stock in mining companies, including Newmont.

Of course, even though it is hard to prove that manipulations truly occur, we are aware of the way the mechanism works: you sell the shares when their price is rising (usually due to a step forward in the authorization process, or due to some statement in support of the project, made by some important political figure, preferably president Traian Băsescu) and you then buy them back, when the price droped (usually due to some objection made by Laszlo Borbely - the Hungarians have been accused of wanting to keep the gold of Roşia Montană for themselves, in the event they were to gain autonomy or that a Hungarian firm is interested in taking over the concession of the gold deposit -, or maybe due to a postponement of the authorization, or because some other political figure, sometimes even the same one, demands the amendment of the contract, or maybe because ... the Soros Foundation takes steps against the project).

Sensitive to the topic of speculation, the press reported that starting in March 2011, George Soros sold all of his holdings in Newmont, as well as in Caterpillar Inc. (maker of mining equipment), only to buy back stock in the same companies as well as in other 20 companies with mining profiles three months later, in June 2011.

If I may be forgiven for my neutrality on this subject, I find myself forced to warn that, under the pressure of the world financial crisis, commodities have become the star of investments, due to lack of confidence in banks and money itself, regardless of whether they are euros, dollars and even any other currency, meaning that the motive behind those transactions seems very likely, even in the absence of any manipulation.

Obviously, stock market speculation itself shouldn't be incriminated, unless the speculator causes the price fluctuations himself, knows in advance that the fluctuation will happen and profits from it.

Even though this kind of manipulations aren't easily proven, the media took them as certain, as did politicians like PSD deputy Mugurel Surupăceanu, who made the suggestion (which I found original) that Soros would like to take over the mines of Roşia Montană to exploit them for his own benefit (he says: "After it was officially estimated that the Kosovo province owns 17 billion of tons of coal reserves together with large quantities of gold, silver, lead, cadmium, uranium, nickel or oil - George Soros has actually been mentioned as the main person interested in buying the Trepca mining complex, in Kosovska - Mitrovica").

What really surprises me is that, being so focused on the idea of speculation, the press is not reacting in any way to the repeated public interventions of president Traian Băsescu in favor of the Roşia Montană project, instead accusing him of being on the take and giving away the country's riches.

I am one of those people who don't doubt the patriotism of president Băsescu.

The justification which the president provides for his support of the Roşia Montană project would make sense on the surface - job creation, the resumption of mining in Romania, because mining got its luster back all over the world, due to the global financial crisis.

Yes, these reasons are likely.

But they are not certain.

Unemployment has always been and will always be a social issue, but unemployment in Romania is somewhere in the basement compared to the rest of Europe, (between 5% and 7%), because workers left by the millions to search for a better fortune elsewhere, and in Romania the births/deaths ratio is negative, because we are careful not to create too many mouths to feed, after twenty years of lousy government.

So yes, it is a good thing to create jobs, but that notion just does not have the same vibe as it does in the speeches of president Barack Hussein Obama II, because our situation is different from theirs.

The second idea, that mining is a worldwide opportunity, is also only partially true, because the mining industries are just riding a wave of popularity, but opening and shutting down mines in response to the trends is nonsense.

And finally, in relation to the argument which used to be thrown about that gold is very expensive and that it would therefore be a good thing to start mining so we can get into it our vaults, by starting mining in Roşia Montană, it needs to be said that our treasury will not see an ounce of gold, if mining ever begins, only royalties (and dividends, after paying our debts towards the corporation first, which, most likely will happen in years after the beginning of mining, or maybe even never).

So, if president Băsescu is a patriot, like I won't refuse to believe, and the project is not exactly profitable, then what exactly is behind the public speeches he makes in favor of the Roşia Montană business?

The answer to this question can only be found by speculating.

In the case of Băsescu, all we have to do is to think, just like we did in the case of the suspicions against Soros.

Let's imagine that, for some time now, Traian Băsescu and Adriean Videanu jointly own 10% of the Roşia Montană project, through proxies, so that nothing can be proven, like Ioşca would say.

And that is when everything becomes clear.

All this chaotic mix of licenses which are promised and then put on hold, the chaotic behavior of the Romanian authorities, the political statements in favor and against the Roşia Montană project.

Being a president, especially a "player" like Băsescu, as he likes to call himself, you can make the stock of Roşia Montană fluctuate on the Toronto Stock Exchange, every time you want to buy a bottle of vodka and you're out of money.

It's easy, just buy shares before the speech and sell them afterwards.

There's that bottle of vodka.

And he can drink it with Soros, in Neptun, in the evening.

But all this time, what's about mining, you say?!

You can make money just by talking, and all these delays allow Romania to keep its treasure instead of having it taken over by foreigners.

What the hell?!

After all, it's patriotic!