Will Ben Bernanke go fishing this summer?

CĂLIN RECHEA (Translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
Ziarul BURSA #English Section / 23 aprilie 2013

Will Ben Bernanke go fishing this summer?

A recent news from Reuters states that this year, Ben Bernanke will not attend the monetary policy conference held at Jackson Hole by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. The official reason? The full agenda of the president of Federal Reserve, more specifically, the personal agenda.

This is the first time in the last 25 years when this happens, and the significance of this absence will become obvious in the next months, because the conference will take place in the second half of August.

Why is Bernanke avoiding his last conference at Jackson Hole while he is still the head of the most important central bank in the world? Is he going fishing? But Grand Teton National Park of Wyoming is the ideal place for that kind of activities! Or maybe he has planned a sick leave about four months in advance?

The tradition of the conferences at Jackson Hole began in 1978, as the first topic was the potential of the international trade of agricultural products to bring economic growth. How times have changed! The symposiums have been followed closely especially for the signs given by the central bankers concerning quantitative easing, including through unlimited currency printing.

"Bernanke and the former chairman of the Fed, Alan Greenspan, have periodically used the conference to announce some important measures taken by the US central bank", British daily The Telegraph writes, which also wrote that in 2008, the symposium effectively became "a war room", as "the main central bankers discussed the ways to alleviate the effects of the financial crisis, following the collapse of Lehman Brothers".

In an additional paragraph, The Telegraph emphasizes the importance of the annual reunion of the central bankers: "The event of Jackson Hole is the most important conference in the global schedule of the central banks".

Like they've gotten used over the last few years, the analysts of Zerohedge seem to provide the best plausible explanation: Ben Bernanke is ready to transfer the codes of the "nuclear" printer to his successor. Under these circumstances, it is good to follow the Americans invited to the conference, to attempt to decode what the next stages of the unprecedented monetary experiment of the central banks.

The pessimistic scenario of the people at Zerohedge includes the scenario of Ben Bernanke "distancing" himself from what follows: the gradual cut of the monetary stimulus packages and the starting of a clear rising trend in the borrowing costs.

The Telegraph reminds us that the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi, last year missed the symposium of the Federal Reserve because he had to handle the crisis of the Eurozone.

What followed in the Eurozone is well known: the announcement of the unlimited money printing program to support the bankrupt governments did not prevent, after a few months, the use of extreme measures, as was the case in Cyprus.

Just like it happened in a small country in Eastern Europe, where the governor of the central bank was forced to drop promoting apocalyptic scenarios to manage the situation which was also created by the collapse of Cyprus. Once again, the "success" was grandiose, as the situation remains uncertain for the Cypriot banks on the domestic market, and the depositors' hopes of getting their money back are increasingly low.

Let's hope that Bernanke won't be absent from Jackson Hole because he is looking for shelter from the storm fronts on the international markets. After all, he is the one who "has been working on the storm" over the last few years.

Perhaps the manager of the most important central bank in the world has gotten tired of "managing" the crises and he is going fishing.

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