WNA report: Uranium demand will increase by 28% by 2030

Uranium demand for nuclear reactors is expected to grow by 28% by 2030 and double by 2040 as governments increase nuclear power capacity, according to a report published by the World Nuclear Association (WNA), reports Reuters.

Interest in nuclear power has grown since Russia invaded Ukraine and many countries want alternatives to Russian energy supplies, the WNA's biannual nuclear fuel report said.

"From the beginning of the next decade, new mines must come into production, in addition to increasing supplies," state the authors of the report, which notes that global uranium production has fallen by a quarter to 47,731 tonnes from 2016 to 2020 and recovered slightly to 49,355 tons last year.

After the 2011 earthquake and tsunami that destroyed Japan's Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant, countries around the world shut down dozens of reactors. However, global nuclear capacity at the end of June 2023 was 391 gigawatts of electricity (GWe), from 437 units, with another 64 GWe under construction.

The authors of the cited report estimate a 14% increase in nuclear power generation capacity by 2030 and a 76% increase to 686 Gwe by 2040. Capacity will increase not only through new reactors, most of which are planned in China and India, but also by extending the life of existing plants.

"Several countries with large reactor fleets, such as Canada, France, Japan, Russia and Ukraine, allow existing facilities to operate for up to 60 years, and in the US for up to 80 years", the report's authors are quoted as saying.

Small modular reactors (SMRs), which are easier and cheaper to build, are also gaining ground, according to the source cited.

Under these conditions, uranium demand for nuclear power plants is expected to increase to 83,840 tons by 2030 and 130,000 tons by 2040, from 65,650 in 2023. The spot price of uranium has more than doubled in the last three years, but has fallen well from a peak of $140 a pound in 2007. This week, uranium traded at $60.75 a pound, up from $56.25 about a month, according to market research and consulting firm UxC.