Xi Jinping is preparing a "blockade" against Taiwan: the scenario played out at the "Joint Sword-2024B" exercise

In a show of force involving more than 125 aircraft and 34 naval and coast guard units, China's recent military exercises around Taiwan offer clues about Xi Jinping's plans to force the island's reunification with the People's Republic of China (PRC ) through a "blockade" (maritime quarantine according to Beijing authorities) in that area, according to an article published on the Zerohedge website.

The quoted source claims that the recent intimidation exercise is intended to warn Taipei and its potential allies that Beijing has the ability and will to isolate the democratically-ruled island from any outside support or assistance. The exercise also signals that Xi intends to present the initial phase of a violent reunification effort as justified under international law.

For example, the participation of the People's Armed Police Coast Guard (PAPCG) suggests that China may launch action by declaring a maritime exclusion or blockade zone around Taiwan. Coast Guard vessels not only patrolled around the main island of Taiwan, but also operated in the waters around the Taiwanese islands close to China's coast. This is not the first time that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Eastern Theater Command has integrated PAPCG and Maritime Security Agency (MSA) ships into its exercises off Taiwan, with these patrols taking place three times since 2022.

Seven PAPCG ships participated in this exercise, and a similar number were active during exercises last summer. Last August, the MSA's largest patrol vessel, the Type 918 Hai Xun 06, intercepted a Taiwanese ferry sailing to Matsu Island. Although the personnel of the Chinese military vessel did not board the ferry, they requested a declaration of cargo and destination and escorted the ferry out of Taiwanese territorial waters. This intimidating presence sent a clear message to the crew and passengers.

The increasingly active participation of Chinese maritime law enforcement units is significant. Essentially, Beijing is considering a maritime law enforcement operation to isolate Taiwan from outside support. It would not declare a blockade because that is considered an act of war against a sovereign state, a status Beijing denies to Taiwan. Instead, Beijing claims that Taiwan is a rebel province, considering all its islands, airspace and waters as sovereign PRC territory in the hands of "rebels".

Under this interpretation, China can argue that a maritime quarantine declared against Taiwan constitutes a legitimate domestic law enforcement operation authorized by international law. It would allow Beijing to monitor, intercept and inspect shipments entering the quarantine zone to ensure they are not carrying material China considers to be supportive of the rebellion. China's president may hope to present any foreign attempt to support Taipei as an act of war that violates Beijing's right to reassert its authority over a rebel province. This argument could cause hesitation among some Western leaders, who could be influenced by certain "legal experts" who accept Beijing's interpretation.

The PAPCG is the world's largest coast guard force, and the PRC's MSA units would reinforce these operations in the waters near Taiwan. Additionally, as in the South China Sea, the PAPCG would be supported by the responsible PLA Theater Command, and the PLA Navy and Air Force would maintain patrols and readiness to meet any challenges beyond the PAPCG's capabilities. Recent missile tests by the PLA Missile Force and past participation in exercises indicate preparations for possible anti-Taiwan operations should they be necessary.

The 13-hour "Joint Sword-2024B" exercise was not as large or complex as China's previous intimidation drills against Taiwan, but it demonstrates Beijing's aggressive intentions and hints at the methods it plans to adopt . The PRC uses a well-crafted narrative and acts with more care and subtlety than America's traditional enemies. All his military actions have a narrative component and a well-defined political goal.