What was the significance of the debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?

The televised debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump had a negative impact on investor confidence in the shares of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp (NASDAQ: DJT), according to a report from Investing.com, which stated yesterday that in the pre-market opening of NASDAQ, their value had dropped by 16.5%.

Analysts from Wolfe Research and Raymond James linked the decline in the stock to (as they see it) Trump's poor performance in last night's electoral confrontation, marked by several digressions from essential topics and a lack of coherence in his message.

It is generally known that Trump holds control of Trump Media & Technology Group Corp, which, on February 21, 2022, publicly launched the social media platform Truth Social, created as an alternative to mainstream social media platforms like Twitter and Facebook, aiming to offer a platform dedicated to freedom of expression according to the vision of Donald Trump and his supporters.

Analysts pointed out that in the electoral confrontation with Harris, although Trump attacked Biden administration policies, including on inflation and immigration, he was sidetracked by controversial topics, such as the size of his rallies and debunked rumors about immigrants consuming pets.

This lack of focus contributed to the decline in TMTG shares, while Harris was perceived as having a more focused and consistent performance, the report claims.

• CNN Poll: Harris, the Winner of the Debate

While these analysts assessed the impact of the debate from a financial perspective without taking direct political positions, the case is entirely different for CNN, a television network known for its unwavering criticism of Trump, frequently accusing him of misinformation and attacks on the press and democratic institutions.

Immediately after the debate, CNN conducted a poll which found that Harris was considered more effective, with 63% of viewers stating that she performed better compared to 37% for Trump.

However, the poll's conclusions noted that the debate did not significantly influence the audience's electoral preferences, with 82% of those who watched the event stating that it did not affect their voting choice.

Nonetheless, in the verbal confrontation between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, each candidate had moments where they highlighted their main arguments and moments where they were criticized, and the assessment of the winner of this debate largely depends on each viewer's perspective and the broader political context.

• Strong Points for Trump:

- Trump was very vocal in criticizing Harris and Biden's tenure, highlighting the failures he perceived in the current administration, such as inflation and the withdrawal from Afghanistan.

- He used familiar rhetoric related to immigration and foreign policy to attract supporters, mentioning the support he received from leaders like Viktor Orban and criticizing the policies toward Ukraine and Russia.

• Strong Points for Harris:

- Harris highlighted Trump's lack of a clear plan regarding healthcare and other major economic issues. Kamala Harris reiterated her support for Israel and NATO allies, criticizing Donald Trump for his positions and relationships with authoritarian leaders. She emphasized the importance of international alliances, noting that European allies are grateful that Trump is no longer president and that his policies would have allowed Putin to expand his influence beyond Ukraine.

- She criticized Trump's rhetoric and policies related to abortion, immigration, and his attempts to overturn the 2020 election results, highlighting his legal issues.

• Vulnerabilities:

- Trump admitted that he does not have a concrete plan for improving the healthcare system, which may have been seen as a weakness.

- Harris largely avoided offering concrete details in certain areas and was criticized for not clearly defining her political identity.

Harris adopted a more defensive and optimistic tone, while Trump was more combative and critical.

The analysis suggests that the debate did not significantly change the hierarchy of voter preferences and that each candidate strengthened their base of supporters. However, it must be noted that such a conclusion is common among media outlets that are traditionally favorable to Donald Trump.

Read "The winner of the debate between the two U.S. presidential candidates, in the eyes of the american press"

• Candidates' Position

If this were true, it would mean that:

1. The loyal electorate of each candidate has largely remained unchanged, and the traditional supporters of Trump or Harris are likely just as faithful as before.

2. Neither candidate managed to gain a decisive advantage from the debate, making it difficult to declare a clear winner. The debate highlighted the stylistic and ideological differences between the two, but it does not seem to have drastically influenced voters.

However, we must consider that undecided voters, who represent an important segment, could be influenced in the long term by such a confrontation.

Trump's voters tend to be conservative, nationalist, and pro-business, often critical of immigrants and supportive of a more limited federal government.

Harris's voters are progressive, supporters of civil rights and social inclusion, often focused on climate change and social justice.

The differences between these voters reflect divergent views on how the U.S. should be governed and the core values that should be promoted in society (unlike the situation in Romania, where electoral programs do not influence votes, and thus, the democratic exercise is formal).

If there was no defining moment or decisive attack to change the dynamics, the hierarchy is likely to remain unchanged immediately after the debate.

Is Harris the Favorite? Inertially, Trump might seem the favorite, but the situation changed abruptly after Kamala Harris replaced Joe Biden in the presidential candidate role.

In all scenarios, we must consider several factors:

1. Undecided Voters Can Decisively Influence the Race: They are not firmly included in either camp, and their preferences can change depending on the campaign and the situation at the time of the elections.

2. Effective Voter Mobilization: In previous elections, Democrats effectively mobilized young voters and minorities, which could tip the balance in favor of Harris, especially if these voters turn out in large numbers.

3. Socio-Economic and Political Context: External events (pandemics, economic crises, international tensions) can greatly influence public perception and, implicitly, voting preferences.

The final outcome will depend on the effective mobilization of voters and how each candidate plays their campaign, especially among the undecided.

Based on the average of national polls, The Economist suggests that Harris has a slight lead, with an average score of 48.4% compared to 45.7% for Trump.

However, both polls and commentary should be viewed with caution, as the race is highly polarized, and it seems that not only Americans are choosing the president, but almost the entire planet is watching with interest.