Diesel demand falls in China

The diesel markets in China and India, responsible for most of the Asian demand profile, are showing signs of slowing down, which could create new problems for crude oil prices, reports Bloomberg.

In China, the world's largest oil importer, demand for diesel is falling, while in India, the pace of growth in diesel consumption has slowed significantly. Against this background, the profits made by refineries in the region from the processing of crude oil from the Middle East into diesel have decreased by more than 40% from the beginning of the year until now, notes Agerpres.

Developments on the diesel market are important because this fuel is a traditional pillar of the world energy market, being used in transport, mining, construction and agriculture.

According to data from the International Energy Agency, diesel has the largest share among refined products made from crude oil worldwide. The weak situation on the diesel market is affecting oil, with Brent crude prices recently hitting their lowest level since the end of 2023 amid concerns about a global oversupply.

The problems on the diesel market in Asia are similar to developments in Europe, where futures quotations reached, this week, the lowest level since the middle of last year. In recent days, an indicator measuring the profitability of diesel production in the region has hit a 15-month low, creating problems for refiners.

Bloomberg calculations show that in China, diesel consumption has fallen by more than 10% this year, setting the stage for the first annual decline in three years. One reason for this decrease is related to the cyclical evolution of the economy. When the economy slows, the demand for diesel also decreases, but there is also a structural element. More and more trucks use LPG, while among commercial vehicles. the percentage of those using LPG or battery has increased to 5.2% and 11.7% respectively in 2024, from 2.9% and 0.7% respectively in 2020.

The diesel market in India is also facing problems. In the first eight months of the year, consumption increased by 2.4%, but this is a much smaller increase than the 6.7% recorded in the same period last year and the 10% advance from 2022.

"The tightening of emissions regulations, the fear of banning diesel vehicles and the near parity between the price of oil and diesel, are changing consumer perceptions," says Mudit Nautiyal, an analyst at the consulting firm Wood Mackenzie Ltd. According to him, in the long term, the demand for diesel faces risks from electrification.