THE USL NEEDS TO QUICKLY COME UP WITH TWO MILLION DEATH CERTIFICATES Supporters of Băsescu never die

MAKE (Translated by Cosmin Ghidoveanu)
Ziarul BURSA #English Section / 2 august 2012

Ioan Rus failed to meet his quota.

Ioan Rus failed to meet his quota.

Fifty percent, plus one.

You can't add - "plus one" - to a statistical figure.

Statistical figures result from probabilistic calculations.

Probabilistic calculations lead to estimates, where errors are admissible.

The right to vote is inalienable, not estimative.

That is why, the number of citizens allowed to vote is not estimated, in the case of a ballot, but are instead counted one by one and registered with name, address and all the other information.

That is why the threshold is allowed to say "plus one", because that 50% is of the same nature - "one by one", rather than an amorphous bundle.

Would you like it if you lost your right to vote because you became part of the probabilistic margin for error?

It used to be simple: you got sentenced to jail, you went to jail; you plagiarized your PhD thesis, you lost your PhD; if the referendum didn't meet the requirements to be deemed valid, it would not be validated.

Now, it is not so easy anymore, you need to pick up the convicted person from the hospital, where he got (medical) asylum; the plagiarism is not plagiarism, because the commission which granted the PhD title did not acknowledge it; the Referendum which did not meet the validity requirements should be validated, because that's what the interim president and the USL want.

And I don't see why it shouldn't be possible, when every thing that was clear so far is now turned on all faces, dissected and redefined, to please the USL.

Hereinafter, I explain the legal procedures used for determining the number of eligible voters, without expecting that the USL "insurgents" will honor them.

I have to confess that, as I got together the information which this text is based on, I kept cursing, because I felt like I was one of those people who jump in the water, trying to get the rock thrown in by a madman.

On every ballot (elections or referendum), the permanent electoral lists are drawn up by the Ministry of Administration and Internal Affairs (MAI), based on the National Registry for the Records of the Population.

The Ministry of Internal Affairs sends the electoral lists to the Central Electoral Bureau and to the mayoralties.

The legal source is the National Registry for the Records of the Population, managed by the Department for the Records of the Population and the Management of Databases, of the Ministry of Internal Affairs.

On every birth, death, awarding or loss of citizenship, the data is updated or inserted in that Registry by the Department for the Records of the Population and the Management of Databases.

These records are based on legal documents (death certificate, for example), in the absence of which no one can be removed from the National Registry.

The problem of the USL is that Internal Affairs minister Ioan Rus publicly announced that there were 18,292,514 people entitled to vote and that was before the referendum of 2012.

"At this moment [ed. note. - Wednesday, July 25th 2012] , the final list of voters has been established, there are 18,292,514 Romanian citizens who have the right to vote", internal affairs minister Ioan Rus said. (AGERPRES)

The website of the Central Electoral Bureau announces the same number (http://www.becreferendum2012.ro/statistici.html).

Interim president Crin Antonescu has been informed on these provisions and legal procedures, but he advises the Constitutional Court to use "the real list", not the "bureaucratic one".

The USL brings up another database, that of the National Statistics Institute (INS), resulting from the Census.

But the National Statistics Institute applies a different method, which does not use legal documents, but instead draws its results from what the citizens state during the census.

The INS does not count the citizens, only the stable population (citizens gone abroad are no longer considered part of the stable population).

In order to have the right to change the size of the electoral lists, the USL must provide documents which have legal merit, which prove that each of the citizens it wants to remove from the list is deceased or voluntarily abandoned their citizenship.

According to the calculations made by Daniel Ionescu (in the article called "Speaking of the Referendum"), the USL would need to produce almost two million death certificates.

Fast.

Only after it did that and they were recorded in the National Registry for the Records of the Population of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, could interim president Crin Antonescu claim that there is "a real list", different from the "bureaucratic list".

Only if that happened would the Constitutional Court be faced with the moral issue which the USL is trying to force upon it.

It needs to be said however, that the fact that the number of eligible voters hasn't changed between the referendum of 2007 (18,301,309) and the Referendum of 2012 (18,292,514), as the population of Romania has been constantly dropping since 1990.

So in five years, the number of deaths only exceeded the number of people who became 18 years old by 9,000?

Get serious!

It's like the PDL saying that the supporters of Băsescu never die.

The article of Daniel Ionescu speaks volumes on that matter.

Speaking of the referendum

1. A few elements of population statistics

A. The stable population (legal) of every town is measured by the legally habilitated authority (Mayoralty) on January 1st, and July 1st of every year based on the following formula:

The population legally domiciled in the city - the Population legally domiciled in the town in question but temporarily residing in another town + the population legally domiciled in another town, but with the legal residence in the reference town.

n.b. The status is established in a detailed manner by age and gender and its notes both the natural and the migration movements of the population.

B. The natural movement of the population (births, deaths) is recorded on every city hall based on the birth and death certificates.

C1. The internal migration movement (domicile changes within the country's borders, from one town to another (temporary - change of residence, or definitive) is the task of the police and of the recordkeeping department of the mayoralty.

C2. The cross-border migration (emigrations, immigrations and moving the residence in other countries) is provided by the institutions of the central and local public administration.

2. According to the communiqué of the INSEE of February 2nd, concerning the provisional results of the census of October 20th, 2011, Romania's stable population in the census was 19,042,936 people.

Romania's population had the following structure: 81.6% aged 18 and older (approximately 16,527,971 people) and 18.4% (approximately 3,726,895 people) people aged less than 18 years.

n.b. According to the international definitions the country's stable population does not include: a) Romanian citizens, with or without citizenship, domiciled in Romania who have gone abroad for a period of at least 12 months (for work, looking for work, for studies, for personal interest etc.) and b) foreign citizens or those without citizenship who came to Romania for a period of less than 12 months (people who are temporarily present).

a. The average of the mortality of the stable population aged p18 and over, estimated based on the annual average rate (corrected with the child mortality rate) was about 1.02‰/month between November 2011-June 2012.

Therefore, during the six months that passed since the census, the deaths recorded in the stable population amount to approximately 118,608 people.

b. There were approximately 23,613 people who reached the age of 18 years old during the mentioned period (0.124%).

c. On the date of the census, there were approximately 67,028 citizens without the right to vote (0.478%).

d. The immigration balance was negative and is estimated to be of approximately 940 people.

3. Therefore, at best, on July 1st, 2012, the estimate for the population which had the right to vote could only have bee this:

16,527,971 - 118,608 + 23,613 - 67,028 - 940 = 16,365,008 people.

Note

Data of interest is sent in due time and is also used by EUROSTAT - the pan-European authority tasked with generating and disseminating information and statistical indicators in the EU member countries. (DANIEL IONESCU)

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