BM: Prices of agricultural raw materials, expected to increase

The price index of agricultural raw materials measured by the World Bank (WB) increased marginally in January 2024 (compared to December 2023), after falling by 1% in the fourth quarter of last year, the evolution of the first month of the current year coming in response to the slight advance of cotton and natural rubber prices.

The index, which was on average 4% lower in 2023 compared to 2022, is expected to rise marginally in 2024 as demand strengthens. However, the BM points out that a weaker than expected global growth remains a major risk for this forecast.

• Cotton price rises after losing 27% in 2023

The price of cotton increased in January 2024, compared to the previous month, after a 4% decline in the fourth quarter of 2023, BM notes. The price of this agricultural commodity was 27% lower in 2023 than in 2022, as global production continued to exceed demand.

Global profile consumption decreased by 8% in 2023, amid concerns about a slowdown in economic growth. In the current agricultural season, which started in August 2023, demand is expected to rebound slightly by -0.4% - while global cotton production is expected to decline by around 1%.

Major cotton-producing countries, including China, India and the United States, are expected to see production declines. However, the global supply/demand ratio is expected to remain relatively stable at 0.93 in the current farming season. The price of cotton will probably increase this year, as the demand will increase against the background of the decrease in production, claims the BM.

• Rubber demand remains solid

The price of natural rubber continued to rise in January 2024, supported by robust demand, according to the WB. The quote rose 9% in January 2024 from December, following a similar increase in the fourth quarter of 2023. Rubber demand remained solid in 2023, supported by a recovery in the automotive sector, which accounts for nearly two-thirds of global rubber consumption. rubber. Despite lower tire production in Brazil, Germany, South Korea and Russia, global rubber demand increased by 1.4% in 2023 (annualized), with increases in China, India and Thailand offsetting declines elsewhere. Weather-induced production declines in Thailand, the world's largest supplier of natural rubber, and Indonesia, were only partially offset by increases in India (+2%) and Ivory Coast (+22%), the quoted source notes.

The price of natural rubber is expected to increase by almost 4% in 2024, amid the recovery of global consumption.