Elections with an impact on the EU and Romania. Who will lead Germany?

The parliamentary elections in Germany, which will take place on Sunday, February 23, are of paramount importance not only for the future of the respective state, but also for that of the European Union and, implicitly, Romania, because the results of this election depend on the new political direction of the federal government in Berlin, a direction that will have an impact on European policies and bilateral relations. We recall that these elections were called following the rejection by the Bundestag, in December 2024, of the vote of confidence requested by Chancellor Olaf Scholz, after he had previously dismissed the Minister of Finance, Christian Lindner (leader of the Free Democrats - FDP), which led to the breakup of the governing coalition.

According to the Federal Statistical Office, 59.2 million eligible voters living in Germany are expected to vote in Sunday's election, with another 3 to 4 million eligible Germans living abroad, according to Deutsche Welle.

The German election campaign has been marked by intense tension and debate, especially on issues such as immigration, the economy and foreign policy. A notable aspect of this campaign is the controversy generated by the collaboration between the CDU and the AfD in the Bundestag to adopt a motion on restricting migration. This alliance has been criticized by many political leaders, including former Chancellor Angela Merkel, who stressed the importance of maintaining democratic values and avoiding alliances with the far right. Merz seems to have done so only to get the vote on the motion, for which Alice Weidel, the AfD leader, accused him, according to Deutsche Welle (DW), of deceiving the voters.

According to recent opinion polls, cited by Deutsche Welle, dpa, The Guardian, The Times, Le Monde and other European publications, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), a political party led by Friedrich Merz, is in first place with approximately 27-29% of voting intentions. The Alternative for Germany (AfD), a far-right party, is in second place with 21%, followed by the Social Democratic Party (SPD) with 16% and the Greens with 12%, while Die Linke (The Left) has climbed to 9%. In these circumstances, it is estimated that after Sunday's elections we will witness tough negotiations to achieve a parliamentary coalition that will provide the new government and the new chancellor.

According to a survey conducted last week by Deutsche Welle, CDU leader Friedrich Merz has a 34% chance of becoming the new chancellor, followed by Olaf Scholz (SPD) - 26%, Robert Habeck (Greens) - 25% and Alice Weidel (AfD) - 19%.

Forming a stable government coalition will be essential to address economic problems. Possible alliances include a coalition between the CDU and SPD - more difficult to achieve following Friedrich Merz's recent statements - or between the CDU and the Greens, although ideological and programmatic differences could complicate negotiations. In addition, the growing influence of the AfD is putting pressure on traditional parties, forcing them to reassess their positions and strategies in order to regain the trust of the electorate.

A victory for the CDU and pro-European political groups in Sunday's German elections would mean maintaining political stability and continuing the current direction in German and European politics. Friedrich Merz stressed the need to strengthen a strong economy and strict migration policies, promising economic reforms and a firmer approach to managing the migratory flow, according to information taken from the Spanish daily El Pais.

For Romania, such a government configuration in Germany could mean maintaining the currently solid bilateral relations and support for common European projects.

However, the CDU's proposals to adjust allowances for children living in other EU member states, including Romania, could affect the incomes of Romanian families working in Germany.

In the event of an AfD victory, both Germany and the EU would face major challenges, as the said political party promotes Eurosceptic policies, including reducing European integration and a more nationalist approach. Such an orientation could lead to tensions within the EU and a possible reconfiguration of political alliances.

For Romania, the rise of the AfD could mean a reassessment of bilateral relations and common European policies. The AfD's anti-immigration rhetoric could also affect the Romanian community in Germany, through possible restrictions and discriminatory policies.

• Electoral offers of the main parties

In order to win the votes of German voters, the main political parties have presented a wide range of measures that they would take if they win Sunday's election and will form the government. Faced with an economic recession and fears of possible cuts to social benefits, the Social Democratic Party has focused its campaign, according to the sources cited above, on promoting fair wages and stable pensions. The SDP wants people with assets of more than 100 million euros to pay a wealth tax. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the head of the SDP, announced that he would raise the legal minimum wage again, this time from 12 to 15 euros per hour. The party rejects raising the retirement age, which is currently set at 67. Chancellor Olaf Scholz also warned of the danger of the rise of the far right, emphasizing the need to maintain democracy and liberal values.

Under the leadership of Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) is proposing stricter migration policies and measures to revitalize the economy. The CDU wants to reduce income tax and gradually reduce corporate taxes to 25%. It promises not to reduce old-age pensions and plans to encourage those who want to continue working after the retirement age of 67 by allowing them to earn up to 2,000 euros per month tax-free in addition to their pension. Because he wanted the SPD to no longer be among his governing partners, Friedrich Merz has made it clear that, after the elections on February 23, he does not completely rule out a collaboration even with the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), as he agrees with its proposed measures to combat migration. This loophole left ajar by Merz for a collaboration with the AfD has sparked controversy, being harshly criticized by Olaf Scholz, but also by the Green party, according to German media quoted by the British daily The Guardian. Following this controversy, Merz backed down and said that he would not work with AfD representatives.

However, the AfD strengthened its position during the election campaign, becoming the second political force in the polls. The political party led by Alice Weidel promotes anti-immigration policies, economic protectionism and climate change skepticism. The AfD aims to increase the birth rate with financial incentives and thus bring about a demographic turnaround in Germany through an "activating family policy". Regarding social security payments: the AfD wants foreign citizens to become eligible for them only after they have worked in Germany for at least 10 years and paid social security contributions.

The party also advocates closer relations with Russia, criticizing the sanctions imposed on it and supporting a neutral Ukraine, outside NATO and the EU. It remains to be seen whether the recent investigation into the illegal financing of the party by 2.35 million euros will have a negative impact on the voting choice of German voters for the AfD. According to Euronews, the 2.35 million euros came from Gerhard Dingler, a former regional manager of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPO). A joint investigation by the German daily Der Spiegel and the Austrian newspaper Der Standard suggests that Dingler received the money from German billionaire Henning Conle. The investigation shows that Dingler presented the money to his bank a few weeks ago, claiming that it was for a "real estate project", but that the 2.35 million euros were later transferred from his account to a company in Cologne that specializes in election posters. If the facts are proven, the AfD risks a fine of three times the amount of the donation, i.e. around 7 million euros.

As for the Green Party (Die Grunen), led by Robert Habeck, Deutsche Welle shows that it focuses on ecological policies, promoting the energy transition and measures to combat climate change. The Greens also want to reform the debt brake, introduce subsidies for electric cars and propose a new "citizens' fund" for pension insurance. This fund should also be funded with state money. They also want, according to DW, a tax on large fortunes. The party also supports pro-immigration policies and the integration of refugees, advocating for an inclusive and diverse society.

• Foreign political support for the AfD

The election campaign in Germany has been disrupted in the past month by interventions by US President Donald Trump's advisor, Elon Musk, who is the head of DOGE - the new department for streamlining government spending. The Tesla and X boss has made several statements regarding the elections to be held on February 23, urging Germans to vote for the AfD, claiming that it is the only political force that can improve the current difficult economic situation facing the country that was considered for many years the main engine of the European Union. More, the American billionaire had AfD leader Alice Weidel as a guest on a podcast he hosted live on the X network, a show in which Elon Musk reaffirmed that the AfD is the only democratic and viable political force in Germany.

Elon Musk's interference in the German election campaign did not remain without consequences. According to an opinion poll conducted in early February by the digital industry association Bitkom, based in Brussels, 88% of respondents believe that Sunday's elections will be manipulated by governments in other states or other foreign actors. 45% of them claim that the elections will be influenced by Russia, 42% say that the influence will come from the US, 26% point to China as a manipulative factor, 8% Eastern European states and 7% North Korea. 75% of those surveyed believe that democracy in Germany is not well prepared for fake news and disinformation. For more than half (56%), political measures against disinformation and fake news are not enough. The survey was conducted on a sample of over 1,000 German voters aged 18.

Furthermore, the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) reported that, after Elon Musk's intervention in favor of the AfD, the number of new Tesla vehicle registrations fell by 59.5% in January 2025 compared to January 2024.

Unlike the AfD, no European political leader from the left-wing or right-wing political families to which these parties belong intervened in favor of the SPD and the CDU, a situation that was also recorded with regard to the Green Party in Germany, even though it collaborates closely with other environmental and progressive parties in Europe, promoting common policies on environmental protection and human rights.

• Economic recession, a constant in Germany in the last two years

We also mention that, ahead of the parliamentary elections in Germany, the economy of this state is facing significant challenges, which have influenced political debates, but also the electoral choices of citizens reflected in opinion polls.

Germany recorded two consecutive recessions in 2023 and 2024, with GDP decreases of 0.3% and, respectively, 0.2%, a negative trend that would continue, according to specialists cited by DW and Euronews, in 2025. This negative trend has raised essential questions about the sustainability of the German economic model, which is largely based on industry and exports. Dependence on Russian energy and slowing demand from the Chinese market have undermined Germany's competitiveness, while the transition to electric vehicles has exposed the vulnerabilities of the traditional automotive industry.

In the context of these economic difficulties, an intense debate emerged last fall on the need to reform the "debt brake" (Schuldenbremse), a constitutional provision designed to limit public indebtedness. Critics argue that this rigid measure prevents essential investments in infrastructure, education and defense, necessary to revitalize the economy and ensure national security. Proposals include the creation of a "Fund for Germany" to finance strategic projects, but its implementation requires a broad political consensus and significant legislative changes.