The Geopolitics of arms: What SIPRI Statistics 2020-2024 Misses

The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), considered the most respected global authority on arms trade, last month published its latest report on international trends for the period 2020-2024. While the report highlights important aspects, such as the 64% decrease in Russian arms exports compared to the period 2015-2019, or the doubling of Qatar's arms imports, there are some essential details that have gone unnoticed by most analysts, according to an article published by Zerohedge.

The first aspect is that Israel is not among the top ten recipients of American weapons. SIPRI notes in a seemingly banal note that "Israel was the 11th largest recipient of US arms exports between 2020-2024, with a share of just 3%. In comparison, Saudi Arabia received 12% and Qatar 7.7%. This means that Israel received four times less weapons than the Saudis and two and a half times less than Qatar - a reality that contradicts the widespread perception of the privileged relationship between the US and Israel within the US military-industrial complex. The second aspect observed by Zerohedge is that the US is adopting the Russian strategy of "military diplomacy". They state that Russia is known for its strategy of arming pairs of regional rivals (such as Armenia-Azerbaijan, China-India) to maintain the balance of power and facilitate political solutions. In these circumstances, the cited source claims that the US seems to be following a similar tactic in the Gulf, selling weapons to both Saudi Arabia and Qatar, despite the persistent distrust between the two countries. It remains to be seen whether this strategy will contribute to regional stability or not.

Another conclusion emerging from the SIPRI report is that Italy doubled its arms exports thanks to the Middle East, thus becoming the sixth largest arms exporter globally. Almost two-thirds of its exports went to Qatar (28%), Egypt (18%) and Kuwait (18%). Also, 24% of Turkey's arms imports come from Italy. This rise has also been supported by the large number of Italian armored vehicles currently in the ordering or selection stage.

The SIPRI report ranks Poland 13th in the world in arms exports between 2020 and 2024, following a 40-fold increase in equipment transfers compared to the previous period, with 96% going to Ukraine. However, Zerohedge points out that the report does not mention that all of these deliveries were donations. According to the official website of the former Polish president, Poland has provided Ukraine with more tanks, armored vehicles and aircraft for free than any other state.

One of the most interesting details in the report, according to the cited source, is that Serbia is the second largest export market for the Chinese arms industry, with a share of 6.8%. At the same time, 57% of Serbia's imports come from China, compared to only 20% from Russia. This suggests that Serbia's military pivot to the West is not as radical as previously thought. On the contrary, Belgrade seems to be pursuing a policy of balance between China and the European Union.

From the above information, we note that the recently published report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) on the global arms trade in the period 2020-2024 brings to the fore clear trends: the drastic decline in Russian exports, the rise of Qatar as a major importer, and the continued dominance of the United States as the main global supplier. Regarding Israel, it is no longer among the top ten recipients of American weapons, a statistical reality that would contradict the established perception of Israel's privileged strategic role in the American security architecture. However, it is possible that this gap reflects an increasing capacity of Israel to produce its own systems. Moreover, the emphasis on numbers may ignore qualitative elements, such as the strategic or technological value of the weapons delivered. For example, a single sale of advanced American anti-missile systems to Israel is more important than dozens of shipments of older-generation armored vehicles delivered by the US to other partners in the Middle East.

The article published by Zerohedge raises an alarm about what could be interpreted as a replication by the US of the Russian strategy of "military diplomacy" - that of simultaneously arming regional rivals such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar. While in the case of Russia this approach has sometimes had balancing effects, in the case of the US it remains unclear whether the aim is to maintain peace or simply maximize influence in the region.

Another revealing element is the Italy's rise as an arms exporter to the Middle East, which has allowed it to double its deliveries and reach sixth place globally. Italy is thus taking advantage of regional niches not covered by the traditional major suppliers, demonstrating that middle powers can play an increasingly active role in the global security equation. At the same time, the case of Poland reveals an important gap in the SIPRI report: the lack of a clear distinction between commercial exports and military donations. Although it is considered the world's 13th largest exporter, 96% of the equipment sent was destined for Ukraine and was provided free of charge. This nuance is essential to correctly understand Poland's role, more as a political supporter of Ukraine than as a commercial actor in the field of defense.

Last but not least, the increasingly close military relationship between China and Serbia reveals a strategy of regional balance on the part of Belgrade. Although Serbia has lost some of its contracts with Russia due to sanctions, it has not completely reoriented itself towards the West, but has chosen an intermediate path, cultivating ties with Beijing. It is a pragmatic approach, but one that further complicates the security equation in the Western Balkans.