Under the patronage of Călin Georgescu, the sovereignist candidates - separated, but together

After the rejection of Călin Georgescu's candidacy by the Central Electoral Bureau (BEC) and the confirmation of this decision by the Constitutional Court, the leaders of the far-right parties in Romania, George Simion (AUR) and Anamaria Gavrilă (POT), decided to submit their own candidacies for the presidential elections. The two established this strategy together with Călin Georgescu and declared yesterday that the main goal is to force the resumption of the second round of the presidential elections.

"We need to return to normality and the second round. What is the plan? All the pressure on returning to the second round", said George Simion in a joint video message with Anamaria Gavrilă, sent to AUR and POT voters.

"The second round is back for Călin Georgescu, the elected president", Anamaria Gavrilă also reiterated.

Therefore, Simion and Gavrilă agreed that one of them would withdraw in favor of the other, depending on the validation of the candidacies. George Simion described the decision to reject Georgescu's candidacy as "a disgrace" and an attack on democracy, stating: "We stand with Călin Georgescu". In turn, Anamaria Gavrilă accused the "system" of weakness and emphasized that Georgescu had met all the legal conditions to run.

The last day to submit candidacies for the presidential elections on May 4 is March 15. Withdrawal from the presidential race can be done until March 19. After this date, candidates can withdraw, but they will remain on the ballot - as was the case with Ludovic Orban in the 2024 presidential elections, when he withdrew in favor of Elena Lasconi.

Moreover, the strategy adopted by Simion and Gavrilă, to both submit candidacies and agree that one would withdraw in favor of the other, is reminiscent of the situation in November 2024, when Ludovic Orban withdrew from the presidential race in favor of Elena Lasconi. However, Orban's withdrawal did not have the expected effect, as his name remained on the ballots, and the votes cast for him were canceled, unable to be transferred to Lasconi.

In the current context, if one of the candidates withdraws after the ballots are printed, there is a risk that his votes will be wasted, which could further fragment the far-right electorate. This strategy can lead to confusion among voters and a dispersion of votes, diminishing the chances of a single candidate to advance to the second round.

It is important to note that the transfer of votes between candidates or parties is not automatic. Although AUR and POT share a similar electoral base, voters' loyalty to a particular leader or party can influence how they cast their vote. Thus, it is not guaranteed that POT votes will automatically go to George Simion or that AUR votes will automatically be transferred to Anamaria Gavrilă. Factors that can influence this transfer include public perception of the candidates, their electoral campaigns and the messages they convey.

• The Şoşoacă factor, decisive for the two leaders close to Călin Georgescu

If Diana Şoşoacă's candidacy is accepted by the BEC - the MEP announced that she will submit her candidacy file today - this could represent a new challenge for AUR and POT. Şoşoacă, known for her nationalist and Eurosceptic positions, could attract part of the electorate of the two parties, further fragmenting the far-right votes. The possibility of her receiving votes from AUR and POT supporters depends on how she will build her electoral campaign and her ability to differentiate herself from the other candidates.

In the election equation, a decisive factor could be the support given by Călin Georgescu to the remaining candidate in the presidential race from AUR and POT. Taking this factor into account, the following scenario emerges, in which we could witness the consolidation of the nationalist and conservative electorate. POT voters, who initially supported Călin Georgescu, are probably more inclined to transfer their vote to the candidate officially supported by him. AUR voters, although attached to George Simion, perceive Călin Georgescu as an ideological and mobilizing leader. Therefore, if George Simion will be the sole candidate of the sovereignists, but with the presentation of Călin Georgescu as the future prime minister, there is a good chance that a large part of the POT electorate will support him, thus consolidating a strong right-wing pole. If Anamaria Gavrilă remains the sole candidate, with Georgescu's support, then the situation becomes more uncertain. AUR voters are more attached to George Simion than to the party itself, so some of them might refuse to vote for her.

Under these conditions, if the nationalist-conservative electorate perceives the Simion/Gavrilă - Georgescu tandem as sufficiently powerfull and coherent, then Şoşoacă could lose some of the votes that would have gone to her through a protest vote. However, a part of the radical voters, who consider Simion and Gavrilă to be part of the "system", could turn to Şoşoacă, considering her the only authentic anti-system voice.

In the end, the key will be in the mobilization capacity of the Simion/Gavrilă team compared to the mobilization capacity of Diana Şoşoacă of her own electorate, as well as in the way Călin Georgescu will get involved in the electoral campaign. If the latter will be present at rallies and meetings with AUR and POT voters, the chances of the sole candidate of the sovereignists increase. If the state institutions restrict Georgescu's movements during the electoral campaign, a restriction combined with strong attacks from Diana Şoşoacă, it is possible that some of the AUR and POT votes will go to her.

We reiterate: the above are simple scenarios. They depend on the decisions of the BEC and the CCR regarding the candidate files that Diana Şoşoacă, George Simion and Anamaria Gavrilă will submit.