What happened in the world when Donald Trump took office?

George Marinescu
English Section / 21 ianuarie

Illustration by Make

Illustration by Make

Versiunea în limba română

Donald Trump was inaugurated yesterday for his second term in the White House, following a lavish ceremony that was the most expensive inauguration ceremony of an American president.

Read more details about yesterday's ceremony in Washington, compared to previous ceremonies organized for Barack Obama and Joe Biden in:

Before the ceremony that took place in the Capitol's Rotunda, Donald Trump received a treatment that he refused to offer Joe Biden in 2021. Biden received Donald and Melania Trump for the traditional tea at the White House, after which the two presidential families traveled to the Capitol.

During the ceremony, tenor Christopher D. Macchio sang the national anthem, and the artistic moment specific to each inauguration ceremony was provided by country singer Carrie Underwood and the Armed Forces Chorus and the United States Naval Academy Glee Club. President Donald Trump took the oath of office before Chief Justice John Roberts of the United States Supreme Court, while Vice President J.D. Vance took the oath of office before Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.

In his post-inauguration speech, President Donald Trump said: "The golden age of America begins right now. From this day forward, our country will flourish and be respected in the world. We will not allow anyone to take advantage of us. Every day of my administration, I will put America first. Our sovereignty will be won, our security will be restored, and injustice in the courts will end. Our priority is to make a proud, prosperous and free nation. The USA will be bigger, stronger and more exceptional than ever before. (...) The government is facing a crisis of confidence, the pillars of society have been torn down. The previous government did not manage the domestic crisis, but got involved in other events across the border, did not protect citizens, protected dangerous criminals who were allowed to enter our country, did not ensure the security of Americans, although it gave unlimited funding for the defense of another country. (...) From this moment on, the decline of the USA is over. We will return to the integrity, competence and loyalty of the American government. (...) We will not forget our country, we will not forget our Constitution and we will not forget God".

Trump also said that he would sign 200 executive orders and that with the first he would declare a national emergency at the southern border of the USA, stopping all entries from Mexico, a border that will be guarded by the American military. He said that all Mexican cartels would be declared foreign terrorist organizations.

The ceremony inside the Capitol was attended by approximately 200 guests, including Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, Barack Obama, Joe and Jill Biden, Kamala Harris and her husband, George Bush Jr., Bill Clinton, Argentine President Javier Milii, Chinese Vice President Han Zheng, AfD co-chairman Tino Chrupalla and former Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki. The event was also attended by the heads of technology giants: Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg.

Public order was ensured yesterday in Washington at all events dedicated to the inauguration of the new American president by more than 8,000 officers and soldiers from the American National Guard and the federal police, according to PBS News.

Trump's Solutions for Economic Recovery

Donald Trump's second presidential term comes at a time when the American economy is facing several major challenges, one of the main problems being persistent inflation, which, although it has registered a slight recent decrease, continues to affect the purchasing power of consumers. The national debt, according to data posted on the Treasury website, is increasing, and the US budget deficit has reached record levels. Thus, at the end of the 2023-2024 fiscal year - that is, on September 30, 2024 - the US deficit amounted to $ 1.83 trillion according to the cited source. Budget revenues were $ 4.92 trillion, and budget expenditures amounted to $ 6.75 trillion.

Faced with these challenges, Donald Trump proposes a series of measures for economic recovery. These include imposing general tariffs of 10% to 20% on all imports, with the aim of protecting domestic industries and stimulating domestic production.

In his speech yesterday, the new US president said that he would ask his Cabinet members to reduce costs, prices and huge inflation in the US, that he would declare an energy emergency where he would increase the production capacity of fossil fuels for domestic consumption and for export around the world. "My actions today will stop the Green Deal and keep my oath to the American worker, (...) I will no longer tax American workers, but we will tax other countries to enrich our citizens. To that end, we are restoring the International Tax Service to collect massive taxes from foreign sources that will end up in the Treasury," Donald Trump said.

However, economists warn that such tariffs could act as a tax increase for consumers and businesses, similar to the effect of high oil prices, and could lead to an economic recession. In addition to the tariffs, Trump plans to extend the 2017 tax cuts and implement new tax breaks, such as eliminating taxes on tips, Social Security benefits and overtime pay, as well as restoring the full deduction for state and local taxes. However, these measures could add trillions of dollars to the budget deficit, which raises questions about fiscal sustainability.

Although the new US president's plans aim to stimulate the economy and reduce inflation, there are significant concerns that the proposed policies could exacerbate existing economic problems, especially regarding inflation and the budget deficit.

The impact of Trump's return on global politics

In terms of foreign policy, it seems that with the new presidential mandate of Donald Trump a new era begins, in which the treaties and rules established after World War II, similar to those established after World War I, rules established after the death of over 70 million people in the conflict and after the suffering of hundreds of millions of wounded, disabled, war widows and orphaned children, are no longer applied. We are talking about the rules that promised 1000 years of peace in Europe after the establishment of NATO and the European Union, rules that in the current era are suspended as long as President Donald Trump seems preoccupied with competing with Vladimir Putin, if we take into account the recent statements - including after the inauguration - of the new leader in Washington regarding the resumption by the US of the administration of the Panama Canal and the inclusion of Canada and Greenland in the US. In the case of Canada, Trump did not even bother to talk to King Charles of Great Britain, whom he probably considers as weak as Joe Biden.

It is certain that Donald Trump's return to the White House is generating concerns among European leaders. His intention to impose tariffs on European products could trigger a trade war, negatively affecting the economies of the member states, especially those with significant exports to the US, such as Germany. Moreover, Donald Trump has announced that he will put pressure on European countries to increase their defense spending, even up to 5% of GDP, and to take on a greater share of NATO responsibilities. This could lead to a reassessment of security strategies and a strengthening of the EU's defense capabilities. At the same time, the Trump administration's pro-fossil fuel energy approach could complicate the EU's efforts to transition to green energy and achieve climate goals, necessitating a reassessment of European energy strategies.

As for our country, Donald Trump's second term presents both challenges and opportunities. Romania, as a NATO member, could be asked to increase its defense budget, in line with the Trump administration's expectations regarding the fair sharing of responsibilities within the alliance. Especially since an expansion and modernization project is underway at the American base in Mihail Kogălniceanu that will lead to the cantonment of approximately 10,000 people (American military personnel and their families) in that locality.

Regarding economic relations between our country and the USA, we recall that the Strategic Partnership is in force, but nevertheless, any tariffs imposed by the USA could affect Romanian exports, especially in sectors such as the automotive and IT industries. Therefore, we will have to diversify our export markets and strengthen economic relations with other regions. Related to imports of liquefied natural gas from the USA, the increase in American exports to Europe could help our country ensure its energy needs, until the period 2027-2030 when the OMV Petrol-Romgaz investment in the Neptun Deep area will come into operation at full capacity.

China, Russia, Middle East - the three foreign challenges for President Trump

Tensions between China and Taiwan, the war in Ukraine illegally started almost three years ago by the Russian Federation, and the situation in the Middle East represent the complex foreign policy challenges facing Donald Trump at the beginning of his second term. Practically yesterday, President Trump took on a vast array of political challenges foreign policy and national security, which require urgent solutions to ensure a stronger and revitalized US position, both on the international stage and at home.

The foundations of the current geopolitical disarray - from active conflicts in Europe and the Middle East to the cold peace with China - are numerous, anchored in domestic policy decisions, foreign capital, and international markets.

The Trump administration wants to correct many of the policies it sees as wrong under the Biden administration. However, as the president and his team negotiate and set new strategic directions, they will face difficult truths and complex choices.

One of the biggest challenges is global competition with China. Under the leadership of Communist Party General Secretary Xi Jinping, China is implementing a global export strategy, "China Shock 2," designed to address industrial overcapacity by distorting trade balances and defying the World Trade Organization. The US has expanded sanctions on China to prevent its access to cutting-edge semiconductors, vital for the development of artificial intelligence and advanced technologies. In response, the central authorities in Beijing are investing heavily in domestic technology companies and intensifying military pressure on Taiwan, risking a global economic impact of approximately $5 trillion in the event of an occupation of the island.

Although Trump poses as an opponent of the political regime in Beijing, it remains to be seen what the relations of the new administrations in Washington will be with the Chinese authorities, given the fact that the new American president lifted the ban imposed by the judiciary on TikTok's operation in the US just before his inauguration.

Peace in Ukraine is still awaited

The second challenge is that of the blocking of negotiations on ending the war in Ukraine, a conflict sparked by the Russian Federation three years ago. Under the Biden administration, the US has imposed harsh economic sanctions on Russia, but Moscow has managed to mitigate their impact by redirecting trade to China, India and other nations in the Global South, eager for Russian natural resources and military equipment.

Trump's efforts for a ceasefire will draw criticism from NATO allies, who will intensify debates about the US commitment to the defense of Central and Eastern Europe. Especially since Donald Trump initially promised to bring peace to Europe within 24 hours, then, on the advice of his advisers, he went back and said that the negotiations would take longer, at least two weeks, that a thorough analysis of the situation was needed, but he also said that he wanted to have a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Regarding the situation in Europe, we also draw attention to the fact that Donald Trump recently stated that NATO member states must contribute 5% of GDP to defense and that, otherwise, they cannot count on the guarantee offered by the US in defense, if they are the targets of an attack by a third state.

Middle East, under pressure from the regime in Tehran

The Middle East is another point of maximum interest for the new White House administration, which wants to minimize Iran's influence in that area. An important point for Donald Trump and his team is that hostilities have temporarily ceased in Gaza following the agreement signed by the Netanyahu government and the terrorist group Hamas, just two days before the new American president begins his new mandate in the White House. In fact, Donald Trump stated yesterday that he played a role in the release of Israeli hostages by Hamas.

Israel has reshaped the Middle East's security architecture over the past year, and Trump could be forced to make a decision on Iran's nuclear ambitions in the coming period, especially since the regime in Tehran appears to have reached a collusion with the Kremlin authorities on this issue. If Iran's supreme leader or his successor were to cross the threshold of developing nuclear weapons, the situation could become explosive, overlapping with the current growth of Turkey's influence in Syria and the activities of militias sponsored by the regime in Tehran, such as the Houthi rebels in Yemen, which would further complicate the geopolitical landscape.

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