The Iliescu Factor

An interview granted by Premier Adrian Nastase to a foreign newspaper has reignited debates and speculations by Romanian media as to the role that President Ion Iliescu will play in Romania's politics after the end of his final presidential term. The premier said that PSD (the party chaired by Nastase and also the party that endorsed Iliescu for president) may see an internal competition for the position of chairman, which he would vacate upon entering the presidential race, and that he preferred to postpone the announcement of his candidacy in order to postpone the said competition, too. The conclusion that journalists jumped to immediately thereafter is that Adrian Nastase was hinting that Ion Iliescu was not the one who would replace him as chairman of PSD. So journalists tried to get a confirmation of this hypothesis either from Ion Iliescu himself or from officials of the ruling party. They did not, so the subject remains open for speculations.

The truth is that Ion Iliescu himself has not yet made up his mind as to what to do after his term ends this fall. The path he took after winning the elections in the year 2000 made the choice he has to make this year a lot harder. Shortly after the last elections, when he started the term he knew to be final and accepted the rise of a new political leader, Adrian Nastase, to prime minister and chairman of the ruling party, many thought that Iliescu was preparing for a quiet term and an honorable withdrawal from politics. Especially considering that Romania had not seen such a concentration of power as that accomplished by Nastase since The Provisional Council of National Unity (CPUN), shortly after The Revolution. Nevertheless, Ion Iliescu's authority over politics in general and the administration in particular increased to a level so high that Romania had also not seen since 1990.

Many thought that there was going to be a confrontation between the two of them: the president of the country vs. the chairman of the ruling party. But there was not. Nevertheless, the two of them have everything a confrontation requires: they are from different generations, they have different views on where Romania should be going to, and they rely on different teams (which often conflict). A factor that could have facilitated a rupture between the two of them, and therefore between the factions that would have appeared within PSD very rapidly thereafter was the fact that the opposition has proven very weak for the past four years. Neither The National Liberal Party (PNL) nor The Democrat Party (PD), nor the alliance between them turned out capable of jeopardizing PSD's political domination. Even now, opinion polls continue to indicate that the "democratic' opposition would not gather more than a third of the votes this fall, which gives PSD enough reason to start thinking about a new term.

The uncertainty surrounding President Iliescu's intentions is preventing many players, including the opposition, from making plans for the future. So far, Iliescu has only said one thing clearly: he will remain in politics. Anything past that remains a mystery. Probably to him, too.

Iliescu will definitely bear an influence on this year's elections. Undoubtedly, he will run for Parliament, most likely for The Senate, on PSD's electoral lists. It is also very likely that he will influence the making of those lists. Iliescu is an expert on the mechanisms of Romanian politics and therefore his say will weigh a lot, in terms of both the making of the lists and of configuration of the future Parliament and Government. I doubt that he will want to be chairman of PSD again. First of all, he does not need a formal title to play a key role within the party, just as he did not need any executive power to play a key role in Romanian politics for the past 14 years. Second of all, PSD will undergo another transformation after the upcoming elections and it will probably need a leader who is younger and has a political profile more modern than the profile contoured by Ion Iliescu's age and past. Nevertheless, Iliescu will continue to exert a corrective influence on both the party and the administration, in the name of the national interest and the Socialist traditions he stands for, just as he did as president. Under these circumstances, Iliescu will not enter a competition with Nastase, whom the logic of Romanian politics rather than his own ambition is steering towards running for president, with good chances of success, for that matter. If Nastase makes president, the cooperation between Nastase and Iliescu will be essential for the new administration, so the chances of a rupture between the two of them will become insignificant once again, to the great disappointment of the opposition, which, aware of its own weakness, is hoping that a possible dysfunction within PSD could propel it to power.

In other words, even if the two incumbent leaders of Romania are not disclosing anything about their future plans, even if Iliescu is not saying what he will do after the end of his term and even if Nastase is not announcing his presidential candidacy for the moment, their paths no longer depend so much on their own preferences, but are a function of political logic. Also by virtue of political logic, the future look of PSD and of the next administration will result from the cooperation between the two leaders' substantially replenished teams.

One matter remains unsettled, though (and its further postponement can be hazardous to the ruling party): who is going to be the third leader? Since it is highly unlikely that Iliescu will want to be the future chairman of PSD and prime minister of the country, the party needs at least one (if not two) more commending political figure to play this part and, at the same time, be able to work well with Iliescu and Nastase. Judging by the looks of things now, the third leader will probably not be "launched' before the elections. However, the battle for this seat may very well start now, as PSD has enough people in its ranks who would be suitable for the job.

It was probably this competition that Adrian Nastase was referring to in the interview that triggered so many speculations in Romania.