ISW: Ballistic attack in two waves on Israel

Iran launched a two-wave ballistic missile attack targeting Israel on October 1, experts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) say. According to them, Iran claimed it launched this attack in response to Israel's killing of senior Axis Resistance leaders, including Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut and Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Iran launched 180 ballistic missiles of the Emad and Ghadr types, with Tehran saying it was also the first launch of the domestically produced "Fattah-2" medium-range hypersonic ballistic missile. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed to have fired Fattah missiles to destroy Israel's Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 anti-ballistic missile interceptor systems. The IRGC conducted the October 1 operation with the approval of the Supreme National Security Council and "with the knowledge" of the General Staff of the Armed Forces in Tehran. Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Aziz Nasir Zadeh claimed that Iran targeted Israeli "military, operational and intelligence" centers associated with the July 2023 killing of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran.

ISW also reports that media affiliated with the General Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces claim that Iran has targeted the following air bases:

- Nevatim Air Base, home to Israeli F-35s, located outside Beersheba. Most of the Israeli F-35s were likely airborne at the time of the attack, given that most of Israel's airlifts were airlifted during the attack. This would have allowed Israel to keep most of its aircraft in flight during the attack, both to prevent any damage to them and to intercept missiles sent by Iran. Geolocated images showed missiles falling inside this base.

- Hatzerim Air Base in the Negev Desert.

- Tel Nof Air Base, 20 kilometers south of Tel Aviv. Geolocated images showed missiles falling near these bases.

ISW experts also say geolocated imagery also showed Iranian ballistic missiles impacting at least three other locations:

- An area south of Herzliya, Israel, near the IDF Glilot intelligence base, which houses IDF Unit 8200, which is the IDF's signal collection unit, and Mossad Headquarters. Israel evacuated the Glilot intelligence base before the attack.

- A school in Gedera, Israel, located near Tel Nof Air Base.

- An area near Ayalon Mall, Ramat Gan, Israel, located west of Yarkon Park, where the Shin Bet is based.

The Iranian attack killed a Palestinian near Jericho in the West Bank, and shrapnel from a rocket slightly wounded two Israelis in Tel Aviv.

The quoted source also says that the large number of ballistic missiles sent by Iran is explained by the desire to overwhelm Israel's Arrow anti-ballistic missile defense system, saturating it with a large number of systems in relatively small and densely populated areas.

A US defense official quoted by ISW said US destroyers stationed in the eastern Mediterranean helped intercept Iranian ballistic missiles. These are USS Arleigh Burke, USS Cole and USS Bulkeley in the eastern Mediterranean region.