Prolonged drought is linked to the collapse of political regimes

A study published in the journal Nature highlights a close historical link between periods of drought and political instability in China, demonstrating that climate change played an essential role in the rise and fall of great Chinese dynasties. According to AFP, this research is also interesting in the current climate context.

• Evidence from tree rings

Researchers, most affiliated with the Chinese Academy of Sciences, analyzed the annual rings of Juniperus przewalskii trees on the Tibetan Plateau to reconstruct a detailed history of precipitation over the past 3,476 years. This method allowed the identification of periods of severe aridity, which coincided with moments of deep crisis in Chinese history. The study highlighted three major phases of drought, each with dramatic consequences for social and political stability: - 110 BC - 280 AD - This period of drought coincided with the overthrow of the Xin Dynasty (9-23 AD), triggered by severe famine and popular uprisings. It was also marked by the wars of the Three Kingdoms period, which, together with food shortages, led to a drastic decrease in the Chinese population, from 60 million to 30 million; - 330 AD - 770 AD - The second phase of aridity coincided with the Sui and Tang dynasties, periods marked by internal and external conflicts that weakened imperial power; - 950 AD - 1300 AD - The last identified period was associated with the decline of the Song Dynasty, when adverse climatic conditions contributed to political instability and fragmentation.

The researchers point out that "wet periods were associated with prosperity and stability, while the transition to aridity systematically coincided with the decline and collapse of dynasties."

• Parallels to the present

These findings are particularly relevant in the context of current climate change. The year 2024 was the warmest on record, both in China and globally. Extreme weather events caused by this warming generated economic losses of $310 billion, according to the insurance group Swiss Re. This historical analysis suggests that the effects of climate change are not just a problem of the future, but have shaped the evolution of great civilizations over time. As the planet grapples with global warming, the lessons of the past can provide essential insights into understanding future risks to social and economic stability.