Protectionism Rises, Global Trade Adjusts

As protectionism continues to rise around the world, global trade flows are adjusting, according to an analysis by visualcapitalist.com, which notes that last year, global goods exports totaled $23.8 trillion, down 5% from 2022.

Despite facing a wave of tariffs, China's goods exports are showing resilience, with the Asian country leading the global market. In 2023, China's export volume approached historic highs, while the price of its factory-produced exports fell by 10% on average.

According to the World Trade Organization (WTO), the world's largest exporter, China, shipped $500 billion worth of goods to America last year, but that could change dramatically under Donald Trump's administration. According to the WTO, the dollar value of exports fell for 20 of the world's 30 largest exporters as the number of trade restrictions rose to nearly 3,000 worldwide - about five times the number in 2015. China exported $3.4 trillion worth of goods to the world last year, surpassing America by nearly $1.4 trillion. America, the world's second-largest exporter at more than $2 trillion, was last the world's largest exporter in 1979, but has had a widening trade deficit since then. However, energy exports, America's most important export, have largely shifted from deficit to surplus over the past decade. In 2023, the US achieved a net energy surplus of $65 billion, strengthening its trade balance. A significant increase in domestic energy production has protected the US from oil price shocks, such as those triggered by the Russia-Ukraine war, which has severely affected European economies. Germany, the world's third-largest exporter with $1.69 trillion, saw a slight increase in goods exports (+1%), even as its economy shrank. Germany's industrialized economy has been particularly hard hit by rising oil prices, with several companies forced to shut down production due to rising energy prices. In 2023, the country exported $160 billion worth of goods to America, its largest export market. However, exports to the US could fall by up to 15% if Trump's proposed tariffs go into effect. The automotive and pharmaceutical sectors would be the most affected, down 32% and 35% respectively, according to the cited source.

In fourth place among the world's exporters we find the Netherlands (Holland), with 935 billion dollars, and in fifth - Japan, with 717 billion dollars. Up to tenth place follow Italy ($677 billion), France ($648 billion), South Korea ($632 billion), Mexico ($593 billion), Hong Kong ($574 billion). Places 11 - 20 look like this: Canada ($569 billion), Belgium ($562 billion), Great Britain ($521 billion), United Arab Emirates ($488 billion), Singapore ($476 billion), Taiwan ($432 billion), India ($432 billion), Russia ($424 billion), Spain ($423 billion), Switzerland ($420 billion).

In total world exports, China had a share of 14.2% in 2023, the USA - 8.5%, and Germany, 7.1%. The other countries ranked up to the tenth position benefited from the following shares in world exports: Netherlands 3.9%, Japan 3%, Italy 2.8%, France 2.7%, South Korea 2.7%, Mexico 2.5%, Hong Kong 2.4%.