The impact of Donald Trump's tariffs: who will be most affected?

According to an analysis by Allianz Trade and published yesterday by the German website Finanzen100.de, Donald Trump's imposition of tariffs, aimed at reducing the United States' trade imbalance, could have a significant impact on emerging economies and the US's major trading partners.

The cited source shows that in February, Donald Trump announced a new package of tariffs, signing an executive order that provides for the imposition of reciprocal tariffs. This means that the US will increase tariffs wherever its trading partners apply higher tariffs than the US ones. For example, the US currently charges a 2.5% tax on car imports, while the European Union imposes a 10% tariff on American cars. According to Trump's new policy, the US could raise tariffs to the same level of 10%, thus eliminating the differences.

However, there are exceptions. For example, pickup truck imports to the US are already taxed at 22%, a type of tax that the European Union does not apply. This measure could particularly affect car manufacturers from countries such as Germany, Japan and South Korea.

According to calculations made by Allianz Trade, the countries most affected by these measures would be emerging economies, including: Argentina, India, Brazil, Chile, Kenya. For these countries, Allianz Trade says that the US could increase taxes by up to 34%, which would make exports to the US much more expensive and less competitive.

As for China, one of the main economic rivals of the US, tariffs could increase by 12%. Francoise Huang, an economist at Allianz Trade, told the cited source that "trade deficits with various countries are a major problem for the Trump administration."

So far, the former US president has announced the following tariffs: 10% on all imports from China, 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, 10% on energy imports from Canada (measure postponed for four weeks), 25% on steel and aluminum imports (measure applicable from March).

These measures have sparked strong reactions globally. The European Union, Canada, Mexico and China have threatened to respond with retaliatory tariffs, which could quickly escalate into a trade war. The cited source shows that experts warn that the protectionist policy of the former president could have major economic consequences. A trade war between the US and the world's major economies could: increase production costs for American companies, slow global economic growth and affect financial markets through uncertainty and high volatility.

According to the conclusions of the analysis published by the German website, despite his intentions to "protect American industry", Trump risks undermining his own goals. If other states impose similar taxes, American companies exporting to Europe or Asia could become less competitive, losing ground to local rivals.